October 13, 2020 from Zachary Shahan
This morning, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that a limited edition of Tesla’s Full Self-Management (FSD) software would be released next Tuesday, October 20th. In response, a commentator on our article noted: “Yes, there is no reason to buy FSD now. I think we will soon see a bunch of videos that will give us a good idea of the progress and people can make the most informed [Autopilot] upgrade decision probably in history this winter, before the price changed again. “This comment gave me the idea to write a piece about the different things that I think will happen after Tesla implements this next update.
Limited beta release of FSD on Tuesday next week, as promised. Initially, this will be limited to a small number of people who are expert and careful drivers.
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 12, 2020
Before I continue, however, these predictions refer to things that I think will happen after the broader public version of the new software, not the limited beta version. I expected the broad release in the US Navy to happen a few weeks later or one or two weeks at the earliest.
Also, if you’re not aware of the nature of this update, check out some of the previous stories here: 10 Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, and Dojo Development Updates by Elon Musk. And if you want to learn more about the Tesla Autopilot team and the work behind this software, check it out CleanTechnica exclusive: The Tesla Autopilot innovation comes from a team of ~ 300 Jedi engineers – Interview with Elon Musk.
What will happen after Tesla releases the next autopilot / FSD software update?
1. Social media will be flooded with Tesla owners who post videos of what their cars can already do. (I will almost certainly do.)
2. Consumer interest in Tesla will jump again, and interest in the FSD package will also jump – among potential owners and current owners.
3. Tesla will raise the price of the FSD software package.
4. Eagle-eyed critics will identify several shortcomings that the autopilot is still struggling with, identifying the remaining technical barriers to Tesla’s fully self-driving robotics.
5. Major media sites will write articles or publish videos for a small percentage of Tesla owners who do crazy and potentially dangerous things with FSD included. (There will always be idiots, and idiots will always outdo themselves by getting the media to cover them.)
6. Some critics will argue that Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” is misleading and lobbying for a change in terminology or a ban on technology altogether.
7. I and many others will start taking some trips around the city in which we control our cars, driving 100% of the time, without having to interfere with the driving once and thus go crazy. (I never thought I would see such a day before Tesla came.)
8. Financial analysts and investors will legally start investing higher software revenues and profits in their Tesla models [TS:A]. They will also begin to include potential robotaxi revenue in their models.
9. Elon Musk will tweet that we haven’t seen anything yet, but the bloody version of the technology that drives really blow our minds.
10. Tesla software will learn much more from the user fleet on how to drive better, and Tesla will release updates in the coming weeks and months that will further smooth out the FSD experience.
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