Increasingly, Brexit "without a deal" could lead to a widespread disruption to the UK's economy, infrastructure and social fabric, according to classified government documents published in a British newspaper.
Food and social care prices will rise while medical supplies can face severe delays, given the fact that most of the drugs in the UK come through the English Channel, according to the Sunday Times, according to documents. Delaying borders would interrupt fuel supplies. Ports will only partially recover after three months of major interruptions, leaving traffic at 50 to 70 percent of the current flow.
These are just a few of the impacts provided by Operation Yelhamham, which the London paper claims was drawn up this month by the UK Cabinet and made available to security clearance on a need-to-know basis.
The leak comes after Brexit critics warned that the collapse of the European Union without a deal would harm the British economy, depreciate its currency and create instability. British leaders sought unsuccessfully after the Brexit split vote in 2016 to negotiate and adopt a divorce plan.
Newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a leading voice in the Brexit movement, has pledged to withdraw his country from E.U. – Deal or no deal – Within his first 100 days in office, he said re-voting for independence in 2016 would undermine public belief in the country's democracy.
The documents in Yellowham provide a sobering idea of what Johnson's plan for Britain might mean, describe border delays and new barriers to trade that would affect travelers, disrupt the flow of goods and lead to unrest
, the Yellowhammer report predicts the need to restore a "hard border" with restricted, controlled crossing points in Ireland that could trigger protests and block roads. Johnson maintains that a spirit of skill can help prevent such change. But Yellowhammer's findings foresee hard-line avoidance measures are likely to "prove unsustainable."
The memorandum warns that some businesses will stop trading to avoid tariffs, while others that continue to trade will move higher. customer costs. They say agriculture "will be the hardest hit, given that it relies on highly integrated cross-border supply chains" and high trade barriers. And the black market can grow, especially in "border communities".
The litany of expected impacts also includes protests across the country that will suck up police resources.
Other possible effects detailed in the report include:
- Increased costs for inflation-driven social care providers can cause large and small providers to fail within months.
- Zero percent tariff plans on gasoline imports could shut down two oil refineries, lead to the loss of 2,000 jobs, incentives and further disrupt fuel supplies.
- Delays for vehicles crossing the main channel because many of them may not be prepared for French customs.
- Delays at European airports and other transport systems such as Eurotunnel, which connects the UK and France via the English Channel.  Months of delay of more than four hours at the Spanish border with the British overseas territory of Gibraltar, which could damage the economy of the area.
- Decreases the ability of certain fresh foods, leading to fewer choices and higher prices – an outcome the documents say could "affect vulnerable groups" – as well as potentially "buying panic."
- Small but important preparation risk for interruption of supplies of chemicals used for water treatment that can affect hundreds of thousands of people and require "emergency response".
- Risk of Dust Between British and European Fishing Boats If Ships Are Illegal in British Waters When Brexit Kicks the fallout, according to the Times.
But leaked documents say Britain is mostly unprepared amid "tiredness of leaving the EU" after the country missed its planned departure date in March, according to the document.
The Times quoted a senior government official as saying that the findings of Yellowham do not represent the worst case scenario t "the most realistic estimate of what the public is facing without a deal."
"This is not a fear of projects," the government individual claimed.