Scottish nationalists are unlikely to win a landslide majority in Thursday’s parliamentary election, a blow to their hopes of demanding an independence referendum that could divide the United Kingdom, according to a survey by Savanta Comres / Scotsman.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) wants a majority in the delegated parliament to call for a new referendum, although British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he will not.
A Savanta Comres / Scotsman poll shows that the SNP will fall by six seats to win an absolute majority, but that the Green Party, which cooperates with the SNP, could win up to nine seats.
“If these polls are played out in Thursday’s vote, the SNP is unlikely to have a majority,” said Chris Hopkins, director of policy research at Savanta ComRes.
Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,001 adult Scots online between April 30 and May 4. Other opinion polls suggest that the prospects for a majority of the SNP are too close to be announced.
The only time the SNP won a majority before that was in 2011. Then-British Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and agreed to a referendum in 2014. Then the Scots voted 55-45% to stay in the more than 300-year-old union.
During a pre-election debate, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said he would not convene an illegal, so-called A “wild cat” referendum if Prime Minister Johnson refuses to allow it.
But she and her party have repeatedly said the threat of legal action if Johnson denies it.
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