Clouded clouds are pretty boring. They are not as elegant as cloud clouds (those horned horns in the sky) or as majestic clouds (large, terrible thunder). But the stratospheric clouds, which are low in the sky and create huge clouds of cloudy cover, have the highest value in our warming world: their white peaks reflect a lot of solar radiation back into space.
Clouds in 2019 could potentially be changed by extreme climate change. These stratum-cumulative clouds may disappear, further enhancing global warming.
This is a troubling conclusion from a study published on Monday in 19459005 Nature Geoscience based on a computer model that gives a new warning that climate change can surprise alongside the already existing and clearly predictable consequences.
Leading researcher Tapio Schneider, a climatologist at Caltech, assumed that very high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could suppress the formation of cavity cavities. He and his colleagues modeled the formation of such clouds, and after two years computer calculations came to the conclusion that a constant rise in atmospheric CO2 could cause a sudden rise in temperature associated with the disappearing layers of clouds. 1
"It's a dramatic effect," said Schneider The Washington Post . The cloud clouds "fall apart completely," he said. "After the stratocoupul decks have collapsed, they only re-form when CO2 concentrations drop significantly below the level at which the first instability has occurred," according to the study.
Carey Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told Schneider's research: "What he has done is certainly plausible, but these clouds are really difficult to simulate … He provides a plausible but has not yet been demonstrated, a path that you could have a turning point in the climate. "
Climate scientists have long been confused by the clouds, and the cloud can either increase global warming or limit it, depending on the type of cloud , its size, location, thickness, length etc. However, in the computer model it is difficult to define the clouds
are remarkably non-essential elements of the natural world.If you can bring all clouds and water vapors into the surface atmosphere they will form a liquid layer, "It should be predicted how little of this water vapor will condense in the clouds," Schneider said, "it's only a little more than one inch," said Schneider, and only the clouds will create a layer that is no deeper than the paint. .
There is no easy way to check whether the clouds will really behave like this in a world with such alarmingly high concentrations of carbon dioxide. What is certain is that a leap of 8 degrees Celsius, in addition to the warming already baked in the cake of greenhouse gas emissions, is likely to be catastrophic not only for human civilization but also for countless species and ecosystems shaken of rapid climate change.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, when people began burning fossil fuels on a large scale, global temperatures rose by about 1 degree Celsius or about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, warming due to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, from about 280 ppm to more than 400 ppm, surpassed in 2013 for the first time in recorded history.
It's hard to imagine a world with nearly 1,300 ppm of CO2.
Schneider, on the one hand, does not think so extreme that CO2 levels will actually materialize simply because he suggests that human civilization will find a way to avoid introducing this carbon into the atmosphere.
"I hope there will be enough technological progress that we will not get there, but that is not beyond the realm," Schneider said.
Matt Huber, a Purdue climate scientist who has studied cloud impact on climate, has offered a cautious assessment of the new document.
"When you see a surprising result in a climate model, you worry that the model itself is too typical that there is something that needs to stabilize the model," he said.
But Huber noted that Schneider's paper a potential response to the longstanding mystery.For decades, scientists knew that 55 million years ago the Earth had suffered a strangely hot phase called the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Peak (PETM), the famous "Arctic crocodile."
How Earth's so hot? Carbon dioxide is an obvious element of the mystery, but climate models can not force the planet to such high temperatures without extraordinary CO2 levels, such as 4000ppm or more.Geological recording does not show CO2 higher than 2000ppm
So you need there is another factor
One possibility is that mass methane leakage from the bottom of the ocean has shifted the climate to a new greenhouse, but Schneider's paper suggests another assumption: The disappearing cloud cover can lead to a critical climate  Стратокумулусн these clouds are formed when the warm air rises from the surface and cooled, which leads to condensation of water vapor. Such clouds are known in California as sea beds and are known to move to coastal towns and warm up cold days.
These clouds cover large stretches of tropical ocean. the cooling process in the upper part of the clouds. This happens on a physical scale that traditional climate models can not easily capture.
"They just fall through the computing network," Schneider said.
He and his colleagues have developed a new model that uses what is known as a great vortex simulation. The model shows that the cooling process needed for these clouds will be suppressed if the planet becomes too hot.
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