Sen. Elizabeth Warren's steady rise may not yet be enough to outpace Joe Biden in the ballot box, but betting markets now give her a better chance of being nominated than any Democratic candidate in 2020 at any given time in the race. .
In addition, by tracking polls, RealClearPolitics consolidates candidate market coefficients for forecasting. Currently, the average Warren is 34.8 (out of 100). This not only puts her ahead of her rivals, but simply overcomes the odds given to Biden and Senator Kamala Harris during their summits. Biden jumped after announcing his bid, but reached the top 34 in the forecast markets (he was second at 26.9). Harris skipped everyone after his strong performance in the first Democratic debate, reaching 34.2, but has since stood up and now stands at 1
To me, the rapid rise and fall of Harris suggests that the betting markets are too sensitive to short-term events long before the vote. I also believe that Warren's score above Biden, which is constantly in the ballot box, is problematic, especially given that it cannot yet demonstrate the ability to attract large numbers of black voters who will be decisive importance in determining the candidate.