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Bill O'Brien wants The Patriot Way. His trade goes against him



With the rare opportunity to shape the staff of his team in his image as head coach for the first time, Bill O & # 39; Brian went all-in and restored the core of the Texans on Saturday afternoon. By trading Jadeveon Clowney to the Seahawks for peanuts and using the money saved to get the Kenny Stills and Laremie Tunxil duo of the Dolphins, Brian has dealt with his team's biggest weakness in dealing with his team's most obvious strength. In terms of professional staff, Texans probably have about as much talent as they did yesterday, but that talent is now more widely available on the list.

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If it was just an exchange of Clowns for Styles and Tunxil, the Texans would have made an independent, challenging trade. Unfortunately, there is little attention to the drafts involved in this transaction. When you take the factor that the Texans received a third round from Seattle while sends two first-round selections and a second-round selection and more to Miami, it seems like a desperate attempt to troubleshoot the team for itself. Sending years of valuable drafts, O & # 39; Brien and the GM-by-committee overseeing Texas have set the future for a quick fix.

There is no doubt that Texans are one of the many organizations in the league that are trying to capture the essence of the Patriotic Way. They hired Brian as coach, hired Patriots hero coach Jack Passtibi this offseason, and then tried to hire Pats CEO Nick Caserio in June to take over as general manager, just to their prosecution be postponed by falsification. During the brief span of the committee responsible for the staffing decisions in Houston, it became clear that the committee ̵

1; which includes Easterby and has Brian as an undefined but significant influence – has no idea what could actually qualify as a project of the Patriots for success.


Power Grabbing

While every coach has at least some resemblance to voice when it comes to staffing, few NFL coaches have the last say on the 53-man roster. Those who do have incredible amounts of leverage. Bill Belichik is Bill Belichik. John Gruden has a 10-year deal to break the air. Andy Reed and Sean Peyton have made those commitments throughout their long careers. Other coaches may have a level of control, but the only other one I could find is Kyle Shanahan, who has control over the 53-man roster but relinquishes all other GM personnel decisions to John Lynch.

Bill O & # 39; Brian is 42 -38 in the regular season for five seasons as a Texas coach. Troy Taormina / USA TODAY Sports

With several accounts and recent decisions in Houston, Brian has for years wished for more power over the organization's staffing choices. Executives around Houston's Houston suggested that former Penn State coach wanted Belikick's role in January 2017. There have been reports of power struggles between Brian and former GM Rick Smith who resigned to look after his sick wife after the 2017 season. When Texans fired GM Brian Gayne in June and eventually replaced him with a committee, a report by longtime Texas beat reporter John McClain said that Brian was already in charge of the staff.

Commerce

No deal was made by the Texans in the last month, which would be consistent with what Belichik did in his time with the Patriots. Belichik is a master of understanding time and leverage. Whether you want to tackle it by Brian himself or the emerging Texans committee, Houston's recent moves have shown little ability or understanding of both. Consider the three deals Houston made:

Fourth round pick (likely to be phase three) for the Browns for RB Duke Johnson . Although Johnson may play a bigger role than expected after Lamar Miller tore his ACL, Texans were essentially trading a valuable draft pick for a player who would likely serve as a backward rotation. The Patriots have repeatedly targeted the back in the middle of the draft and as cheap additions to free agency while running Belichic, with few exceptions.

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They traded the second round pick to Corey Dylan in 2004 and received a great season from the former Bengals position, but Dylan was down three in a different era and his subsequent contract extension proved to be a mistake for the Patriots. Then Pats used Lawrence Maroni's first choice to serve as Dylan's replacement, only for Maroni to be on fire too.

Johnson may be a valuable player, but he was buried deep in Cleveland and was their third string behind Nick Chub and Karim Hunt for weeks. Cleveland had no leverage and yet made a significant choice for a player he didn't need. There is no lack of position here. Clowns to the Seahawks for third round picks and backup LBs Barkevious Mingo and Jacob Martin . You might argue that the Patriots have apparently de-emphasized paying the highest dollar for leaky Russians. In this scenario, Texans are probably better off trading Clowns. In addition, if you estimate that the $ 16 million that Texans have budgeted for the Clown brand franchise, they will instead help pay the salaries of Stills ($ 8.0 million) and Tunsil (to help determine) in 2019, you can try and outline it as a reallocation of resources.

What the Patriots don't do very often, however, is to wait until it's too late to trade a player, with Jimmy Garoppolo a rare exception to this rule. Texans absolutely broke their lever with Clown, as our Sarah Bishop pointed out earlier on Saturday. When the Seahawks traded Frank Clark in April, they were able to take advantage of the Chiefs' desperate squad and pockets of first and second rounds to make their initial return.

Former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney had 29 sacks in five seasons with the Texans. Photo by Brad Mills / USA TODAY Sports

Bosses were able to pay so much for Clark, in part because they were able to simultaneously sign Clark for a long-term extension while making the deal. Teams that do this type of trading for a player who is about to make a new deal lose all of their benefits when the trade is over, as no one wants to give up the first and second rounds for a veteran and subsequently leave that player to Leave

After the end of the franchise deadline of July 15, the franchise player may not sign a long-term deal until he has played the tag or been released by his original team. Any team that trades for the Clowns, as the Seahawks did on Saturday, will be forced to hold the Clowns for a one-year deal before likely implementing a second brand franchise in 2020 before negotiating the deal. This only drastically reduced Clowney's trade value.

Texans could retain the Clowns for 2019, wait for his request for a new deal, probably see him play at least a partial season and then either franchise him again in 2020 before a more valuable trade or leave him for it. which would be a compensatory choice for the third round. Houston would lose that compensatory choice if it spent money in free agency, so making that deal suggests that Texans expect to spend in free agency next season. Patriots, of course, almost always avoid free agency to make these kinds of compensatory choices.

Two first round picks, second round picks, T Julie & Davenport and DB Johnson Bademosi to Dolphins for LT Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Steals and fourth and sixth round picks. If there is a position that the Patriots clearly value outside the quarterback, that remains left. Belichick used Matt Light's second-round pick in 2001 and then followed with a first-round pick by Nate Solder. These two guys covered Tom Brady's first 18 years as a starting quarterback. When Solder became too expensive to remain in free agency last year, Belikhik used Isaiah Wynn's first selection and traded for Trent Brown and the fifth round. When Win tore his Achilles into training camp, Brown took over and embarked on the road to Super Bowl LIII victory.

Texans created their mess in the left charge when they refused to surrender to Duane Brown during his tenure in 2017, Brown and the Fifth Round are heading to the Seahawks for the second and third rounds. In the last two seasons, they have missed decisions. In 2018, they tried to sign Solder into free agency, only for the Giants to surpass them. During the 2019 draft, it looks like Houston can prepare Washington State to tackle Andre Dillard with the 23rd pick, only for the Eagles to use the fourth and sixth rounds to move from No. 25 to No. 22 and to beat the Texans on

If any of these moves interrupt Houston's path, the Texans don't make that trade. Instead, the acquisitions the organization made were half measures. They ran with Davenport in 2018, which developed so well that Dashown Watson was forced to take a bus to the Houston Jaguars game in Jacksonville, as the team was concerned about the air pressure on the injured plane. his lungs and ribs. This offseason, the Texans signed the injured Panthers often to deal with Matt Kalil to start and use the 23rd pick of inexperienced quarterback Titus Howard, who spent most of his time in left-guard camp and was unwell. Kalil was alternatively wounded and ineffective in practice, and while Texans said all summer that Kalil would be their starting left-hander in Week 1, the former fourth overall pick was simply not the starting caliber and hadn't been for years

. Laremi Tunxil has become one of the best left tackle in the league, but the Texans paid a huge price to get it. John Door / Getty Images

Of course, it can be noted that they made a similar aggressive move at quarterback and came out smiling. After diverging along the lines of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler with limited success at O'Brien, the Texans sent the Browns a second round to end Osweiler's contract and then sent a pair of firsts round to Cleveland to move up and catch Watson. The price was eventually higher than Houston expected, given that 2018 first round, which he packed for Watson, ended up as the fourth overall selection, but the team will again do the same trade given how Watson introduced himself when he was healthy.

The problem of doing the same trade for Tunsil, Stills and two choices on Day 3 is economic. The project blocks discounts at lower prices for five seasons, offering a huge amount of surplus value if the selection breaks properly. Watson will make a total of $ 13.8 million from 2017-20 without even considering the value of his option for the fifth year in 2021. The professional Pro Bowl caliber marketer is likely to go anywhere around 110 million dollars during the same period. There were no guarantees that Watson would have worked at the time, but the prevailing situation was if the move helped justify the cost of the project.

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However, when trading with Tunsil and Stills, Texans cannot realize the same economic benefits. They pre-empt drafts – the best way to close down entrants with lower market rates against the restriction – to acquire proven talent at market rates. The two years and $ 15 million left over from the Steals deal is comfortable for the team, given that the wide market has shrunk in recent seasons, but that's also a lot to pay for a wagon whose skill set is likely duplicated by Will Fuller. Steals gives Texans a third wide and valuable insurance if Fuller and / or Keke Couti fall injured, but it's hard to see the 27-year-old starting production due to the presence of these two brochures and DeAndre Hopkins on the list.

This deal is realistic for Tunsil and the Texans will not realize any extra value on their deal. The 25-year-old has become one of the best young left-wing teams in the league, and after dropping in a draft day as a result of a scandalous hacker photo hack, Tunsil is able to get paid. Tunsil has a contract for the next two years worth a total of $ 12.5 million, but its deal is yet to come.

This deal just won't be cheap. Since the Texans failed to sign Tunsil until the extension before completing this deal, Ole Miss's former position holds the vast majority of negotiation benefits. Houston cannot pretend to want to trade Tunsil again or leave it free agency in 2021. Tunsil knows just as much. He is set to become the highest paid left tackle in league history this coming week. Halil Mack managed to do about 20% more than Von Miller, the previous edge-of-the-box deal, in the first three years of his new deal after the Bears acquired him last season. Apply the same escalator at the top of the left-hand gear market and you're looking at something within the scope of a five-year, $ 100 million contract.

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Is Tunsil Worth It? Perhaps. Given that the Texans also ship two cranes from round one and round two to the Dolphins as part of the deal, they also lose the excess value of those picks and essentially pay that to Tunsil as part of a contract. I wrote about the idea when discussing the Mack trade, but doing this trade, the Texans realistically value Tunsil as worth something more in the range of $ 35- $ 40 million per season. Tunsil will need to be an MVP candidate annually for this deal to make sense. Even the best left-wing decision on the planet would be difficult to handle.

The future

The right way to do this is as a huge risk. The Bears feel great about trading Mack after year 1, but his contract is underwater if he slips or gets injured. Even if Mack continued to play as a star, the Bears could easily find themselves in a scenario in which the missing assets of their heath prevented them from filling holes in their roster or upgrading Mitchell Trubiski as the third year progressed. These options do not make Mack trading a good decision or a bad idea in a vacuum, but they should inform the way we view the trade. If the deal wins the Super Cup Bears, no one will miss those drafts.

The Bears saw the opportunity to gain talent from the Hall of Fame and went all-in. Tunsil does not have the same type of cache and is not the same caliber of player, but Texans have a better defender and make the same move. That certainly increases their chances of racing in 2019 and 2020, when Watson is likely to earn far less than market value. When the Colts lose Andrew Luck, the Texans should be comfortable favorites to win the AFC South and host a playoff game in January.

O & # 39; Brien led the Texans to the playoffs in three of their five responsible seasons, but Houston is only 1-3 in the postseason. Winslow Townson / USA TODAY Sports

The teams that won the Super Bowl around cheap, talented quarterback did not make such a move and felt good afterwards. Seahawks построен около Уилсън и исторически голяма серия от отбранителни чернови и внесе няколко ветерани, включително играчи като Майкъл Бенет и Клиф Аврил, но изборът от първия кръг, който изпратиха на викингите за Пърси Харвин, се оказа катастрофа , Харвин го нямаше, след като спечели 16 милиона долара за шест мача за редовен сезон в униформа на викингите. Като се има предвид колко тесен и специфичен марж на поражението беше през следващия сезон, честно е да се чудим дали по-добро решение на широк приемник може да спечели Seahawks втори пореден Super Bowl.

Фили създаде свой собствен победител в Super Bowl за две години насам Карсън Венц след търг за втория общ избор през 2016 г., но "Орлите" използваха играчи като Байрън Максуел и Кико Алонсо, за да помогнат за покриване на разходите за преместване на Wentz и след това добавиха допълнителен избор от първи кръг в сделката на Sam Bradford. Повечето от другите им ходове са в свободна агенция и не се нуждаят от значителни капиталов капитал. Те не направиха подобен ход.

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Belichick също никога не се е приближил до изпращането на този вид капиталов капитал за един играч. Той никога не е опаковал избор от първи и втори кръг, за да се придвижи за потенциален кандидат, нито е изпращал избор за ветеран. Единствените пъти, когато е изпращал турнир за втори кръг в директни размени за играч, са през 2004 г. (Дилън) и 2007 г. (Уес Уелкър, като седмия кръг също се насочва към Маями). Можете да насочите към Брейди и да посочите, че Беличик не трябва да бъде отчаян, когато може би е най-добрият играч в историята на NFL в своя списък, но е ясно, че Патс не са имали и не биха използвали черновата си кирка в начин, който O&#39;Brien има през последния месец.

Цялата излишна стойност в света няма значение дали отборът печели Super Bowl. Това е реалистичната нова лента за O&#39;Brien, която да оправдае тази търговия, като се има предвид колко струва придобиването на Tunsil. Хюстън може да добави нещо в безплатна агенция през следващата извънсезонна възраст – може би може да подпише някой като Логан Райън или Трий Уейнс, който да помогне в ъгъл – но той ще продължи напред с ядрото на Уотсън, Тунсил, Хопкинс и Дж. J. Watt. Това са четири звезди на може би четирите най-критични позиции във футбола. През следващите две години обаче тексасците ще трябва да се справят с дупки при бягане назад, стегнат край, по двете линии на скрут и във втория, и това е без да се обмисля възможността за наранявания.

Ако това не стане работи през следващите два сезона, не съм сигурен, че има път за О&#39;Брайън. Тексасците ще липсват години на млади таланти, като се има предвид, че те ще са направили само един избор от първи кръг за четиригодишен период между 2018-21. Тексасците ще предоставят на О&#39;Брайън своя защитник, неговия треньор на герои и накрая силата му. Сега, след един зашеметяващ ден на сделките и поредица от разногласия от вземането на решения на Беликик, О&#39;Брайън ще трябва да докаже, че може да спечели Супер Купа по пътя на Тексас.


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