Polls conducted at the end of the campaign show little movement in the presidential race compared to previous CNN polls in each country.
Surveys show that Biden has given a broad advantage to voters who have already voted by mail or early personal voting, with Trump leading by a wide margin among those who have yet to vote. The size of this bloc of later voters may dictate the outcome of the race.
In Arizona and Wisconsin, poll results are roughly in line with the average of the latest high-quality public polls in the race. The Arizona poll shows a race in the sampling error poll, with Biden supporting 50 percent to 46 percent of Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden has the lead, with 52% behind him against 44% for Trump.
The result from North Carolina shows that Biden is slightly ahead of Trump, 51
In Michigan, the results suggest a larger margin than most public opinion polls there, with 53% for Biden to 41% for Trump, but the results for each candidate are within the error of the survey from the average projected support for that candidate.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, White voters make up a larger proportion of the population than in Arizona or North Carolina, and they are also more likely to support Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin than in Arizona or North Carolina. White voters with higher degrees in the two northern states prefer Biden with particularly large borders, 61% supporting the former vice president in both Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to about half in Arizona (50%) and North Carolina (51%). The majority of white voters without higher education support Trump, with the strongest support among this group coming from North Carolina, where 64% support the president.
There are significant gender differences in all four states, with 55 percent or more of women supporting Biden in each of those states, while men break in favor of Trump in North Carolina and Arizona and split evenly between the two in Michigan and Wisconsin.
On the two defining issues of the 2020 campaign – the economy and the coronavirus pandemic – voters disagree on which candidate would do better with each. Biden has a significant advantage as he is more confident in dealing with the coronavirus outbreak in all four states, with a 7-point edge on the subject in Arizona, its narrowest margin. Voters in Arizona and North Carolina would largely prefer to see the economy in Trump’s hands (54% Trump to 43% Biden in Arizona, 51% Trump to 46% Biden in North Carolina), and the two candidates are even on the issue in Michigan. (49% Trump to 48% Biden) and Wisconsin (49% Biden to 48% Trump) even with Biden’s broader growth in overall preferences there.
However, a majority of potential voters in all four states disapprove of the way Trump handles his job as president, ranging from 51 percent disapproval in Arizona to 56 percent in Michigan.
Trump supporters in all four countries voted largely to show their support for the president. More than 7 out of 10 Trump voters in each poll say their vote is more for Trump than against Biden (79% in Wisconsin, 77% in Arizona and Michigan, and 71% in North Carolina). However, Biden’s supporters are more divided. The Wisconsin majority says their vote is for the former vice president (52%), not against Trump (43%), but the figures show a steady divide in Arizona (48% against Trump, 45% for Biden), Michigan (47% for Biden (43% against Trump) and North Carolina (45% for Biden, 43% against Trump).
In all four states, Biden has advantages as a more sympathetic candidate and one who is more inclined to unite the country. Voters in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin say Biden, more than Trump, has a clear plan to address the country’s problems. In Arizona, voters are divided between the two candidates under this measure. And voters in three states – Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin – are divided on who can protect Americans from harm. Trump has the advantage in Arizona and Wisconsin as a candidate with the stamina and tenacity to be president, while voters in North Carolina and Michigan are divided on the issue.
Three of these states also have closely monitored Senate competitions. In Arizona and Michigan, polls show a democratic advantage. In Arizona, 52 percent support Democrat candidate Mark Kelly and 45 percent support incumbent Republican Sen. Martha Maxali. In Michigan, 52 percent support incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, while 40 percent support Republican nominee John James. In North Carolina, however, it is an almost even race, with 47% behind Democrat Cal Cunningham and 44% behind incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Tillis.
North Carolina will also elect a governor this year, and in this race, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has a clear lead over his Republican challenger, Dan Forrest, 52 percent to 42 percent.
CNN surveys in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin were conducted by telephone from Oct. 23 to 30 among random samples of about 1,000 adults in each state. This includes 865 probable voters in Arizona, 907 probable voters in Michigan, 901 probable voters in North Carolina, and 873 probable voters in Wisconsin. The results among likely voters have a sampling error plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona, 3.8 points in Michigan, 4.0 points in North Carolina and 3.9 points in Wisconsin. It is higher among the subgroups.