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Coronavirus in Oregon: State reports 418 new cases, 6 new deaths, as new modeling shows potential increase in prevalence



The Oregon Health Authority announced 418 new suspected or confirmed cases and six new deaths related to COVID-19 on Friday, as new modeling by the state showed that without more targeted efforts to limit the spread, cases are likely to increase dramatically. with the change of time.

Dr. Dean Sidlinger, a state epidemiologist and public health official, outlined three scenarios. Most optimistically, a 10% drop in transmission would lead to about 290 daily reported cases and hospitalizations would drop to 20 per day. If transmission remains at current levels, Sidelinger said, daily reported cases will increase to approximately 570 per day and about 40 people per day will require hospitalization.

In the worst case scenario, a 5% increase in transmission could increase daily reported cases to over 700 with 48 hospitalizations per day.

And these cases do not show the full picture; these are just the numbers that would be identified through testing and reported by the state on a daily basis. If the transmission rate remains at current levels, the true number of daily infections could jump from 1

,300, the estimated number of cases today, to 2,200, according to the model.

To avoid this, Sidelinger urged Oregonians to practice common sense measures recommended to limit the spread of the virus, especially when temperatures drop and more people spend time inside.

“The virus is highly contagious, and as time goes on and we go indoors, it will be more important than ever to take preventative measures,” he said, noting that wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and frequent hand washing and just gathering small groups are the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading.

“The numbers are clear and show why we need to take this virus so seriously,” he said.

When the new cases are in the county: Benton (2), Clackamas (45), Columbia (3), Coos (5), Crook (1), Curry (1), Deschutes (18), Douglas (5), Jackson (18), Jefferson (3), Klamath (2), Lane (53), Linn (12), Malheur (17), Marion (35), Morrow (5), Multnomah (86), Polk (13), Tillamook (3), Umatilla (17), Wasco (2), Washington (58) and Yamhil (14).

New deaths: The 612th death was a 50-year-old man from Jefferson County with concomitant medical conditions. He tested positive on October 6 and died on October 14 at his residence.

The 613th death was an 82-year-old man from Washington County with concomitant medical conditions. He tested positive on October 5 and died on October 12 at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center.

The 614th death was of an 88-year-old Curry County woman with basic medical conditions. She tested positive on August 8 and died on October 13. Officials are working to confirm where she died.

The 615th death was of a 65-year-old woman from Washington County with basic medical conditions. She tested positive on August 7 and died on September 23 at Providence Portland Medical Center.

The 616th fatal death was a 94-year-old woman from Hood River County with basic medical conditions. She tested positive on October 8 and died on October 14. Officials worked to confirm where she died.

The 617th death was an 81-year-old man from Multnoma County with concomitant medical conditions. He tested positive on September 6 and died on October 2 at his residence.

The spread of infections: Government officials reported 386 new confirmed infections from 5,889 people tested, equivalent to a 6.6 percent positivity rate, a two-point jump from Thursday’s rate.

Who got infected: New confirmed or suspected infections have increased among the following age groups: 0-9 (19); 10-19 (44); 20-29 (114); 30-39 (78); 40-49 (58); 50-59 (41); 60-69 (31); 70-79 (17); 80 and more (7).

Who is in the hospital: The state said 149 Oregonian patients with confirmed coronavirus infections are currently in hospital on Friday. Oregon remains well below capacity, with hundreds of hospital beds and ventilators.

Since it started: Oregon reported 38,935 confirmed or suspected infections and 617 deaths, among the lowest in the country. To date, 773,225 Oregonians have been tested.

– Cale Williams; kwilliams@oregonian.com; 503-294-4048; @sfkale


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