The United States reached the lowest seven-day average of new deaths reported since July last year, an analysis of CNN data and an 80% decline since January.
The study also found that the vaccines were 64% effective against hospitalization for Covid-1
Murphy called the study a “confirmatory report” on the effectiveness of the vaccines, which were launched in December.
Since the beginning of 2021, the seven-day average life expectancy of people who have died from Covid-19 seems to be declining regularly.
CNN’s analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University found that the average number of new deaths from Covid-19 over the past seven days fell from 3,295 every day on January 28 to 1,985 on February 28, then to 997 on March 28. As of April 28, the average is 684.
The highest seven-day average of new Covid-19 deaths was recorded on January 13 and 14, with about 3,431 deaths per day.
The drop from 3,431 deaths per day on average in January to 684 in April represents a drop of 80%. The seven-day average of newly reported deaths last fell below 700 briefly in early October.
Covid-19 vaccinations are already having a significant impact on mortality among certain groups in the United States, such as the elderly, Dr. Amesh Adalya, a senior scientist at the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center, told CNN.
“If you look, for example, at populations that have been heavily vaccinated as residents of nursing homes, you will see that deaths in nursing homes have declined and overall mortality has declined over time. It’s really a function of how many high-risk people have been vaccinated, and it’s becoming more and more obvious, “Adalya said.
But while the seven-day average for new Covid-19 deaths across the country has fallen, Adalia said it would take longer – and more gunfire – before the US population could see an even greater impact. from vaccinations.
“For example, in the pre-vaccine era, you will see cases increase and then deaths will increase a few weeks later. Conversely, cases will fall, but deaths will still be high and then deaths will they start falling two weeks later, “Adalya said.
“The vaccine is a little different, because if you go to a nursing home and you have vaccinated the whole population, it will take some time until they are fully vaccinated and have that protection,” Adalya said. “Indeed, to see the full effect of the vaccines, you want it to happen two weeks after the last dose of any vaccine they receive.”
Someone is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after completing the second dose of Pfizer / BioNTech or Moderna vaccines or two weeks after completing a single dose of Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
“We’re not halfway there yet”
Monitoring the impact of vaccinations on Covid-19 mortality requires the time for the population to be fully vaccinated, as well as the time for post-infection deaths.
“People who die are often people who have been in the hospital for a few weeks, so you can’t just look at the vaccine numbers from that day or even this week and be able to do some extrapolation to deaths,” he said. Adalya: “I think it takes some time to see the effects of vaccines.”
On Friday, the United States officially crossed the 100 million fully vaccinated line. About 43.6% of the population – nearly 145 million people – have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 30.5% of the population – more than 101 million people – have been fully vaccinated, according to CDC data.
“As more people get vaccinated, hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline. We are not halfway there yet,” said Murphy of Northwestern University.
“Eventually we will dig this thing up and get vaccinated and treated early,” Murphy said of the pandemic. “How we control the pandemic are diagnosis, treatment, vaccinations and mitigation.”