“There’s a big wave of Republicans coming. And frankly, it’s a piece of data that a lot of people writing about it can’t figure out, “said Steve Shele, a Democratic operative in Florida who heads the pro-Pider super PAC Unite the Country.
“The numbers are pretty stunning for us, and the return rate and surveys look good,” Shale said. “But there are many things we don’t know.”
For starters, Republicans say their figures show they have 400,000 more high-ranking voters who have not yet voted than Democrats. Republicans told pollsters and the Trump campaign that they preferred to vote in person.
“Voting in Florida is a marathon. And what you see is a bit of a Democrat sprint, “said Susie Wiles, director of Trump̵
The big discrepancy, combined with a poll showing Biden is marginally leading Trump here, is forcing Democrats to faint. Activists and consultants say this is a sign that their country is more enthusiastic about retiring.
While Florida Republicans dominated the absentee voting game, Trump’s demonization of mail voting has played a role in the relatively poor performance of CSOs so far.
As Democrats began running absentee ballots, Trump’s campaign responded by registering more voters and boasting a larger and more in-depth field program that could produce more voters in person than Biden’s campaign could hope to make. .
Although the state monitors the return of voters by party, officials do not open ballots or record actual votes, making the return a rough estimate of voter turnout, but not an accurate picture of which candidate wins the election. In the past, however, both countries have used early absenteeism as absenteeism as a first step in measuring voter intensity for their country.
Both sides are preparing for elections that could have up to 9.8 million votes.
As of Tuesday, Democrats made up nearly 51 percent of the nearly 1.8 million ballots cast so far. Republicans had cast about 520,000 ballots, or about 29 percent of the total.
The remaining 20 percent of the ballots sent so far were submitted by independent voters who do not belong to a party or belong to minor third parties.
The preference of these independent voters is harder to judge, but opinion polls show Biden wins. In addition, according to an internal analysis by the Florida Democratic Party, its models show that 31 percent of those independent voters who have already voted look like Democratic voters because their age and race are more closely correlated with Biden’s voters; only 11 percent resemble Trump’s voters.
Republicans say Democrats are largely “cannibalizing” election day by forcing their same supporters to vote earlier. Both sides agree that Democrats elect tens of thousands of voters with a lower turnout, although they disagree on the importance. Democrats say they have an advantage of 40,000 voters with a lower propensity because more of their voters are enthusiastic about going to the polls. Republicans oppose that Democrats simply have more than that type of electorate anyway, so they will always have the upper hand.
Democrats also say they are beating Republicans when it comes to electing newly registered voters,, and that all of this is happening while the Florida seniors, who typically support Republicans, look more profitable for Biden this year than the way they voted in 2016.
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton won voters on election day with just under 247,000 voters ahead of Trump. But Republicans were so numerous on election day that he won a total of nearly 113,000 votes.
Michael MacDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who tracks early voting across the country, echoes data analysts on both sides of the political spectrum, saying he wanted to see what happened during the personal early voting period in Florida – which begins on October 19 in the major counties of Florida – before he got a clear idea of what was happening.
“There is no historical comparison. That’s the problem … There are so many pieces to the puzzle, “MacDonald said, noting changes in voting patterns on both sides due to campaign tactics, candidate rhetoric, the pandemic and concerns about the delivery of postal services.
But while there is no historical counterpart, MacDonald expects to see Republicans narrow the gap.
“On election day,” he said, “a big red wave is coming.”