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Donald Trump still shows some power in the Midwest by 2020



Poll of the week: The Des Moines Register survey marks a 46% rating of President Donald Trump's approval in Iowa, while his disapproval rating in the same poll is 50%.
This is a reflection of Iowa's Gallup annual survey, which is approved by Trump with 45% and disapproval of 51%. There is no doubt that Trump will lose if the 2020 elections were held today and was a referendum on his work as President. His rating is well below his disapproval throughout his presidency.

A much more interesting question is how tall is his approval rating actually going to climb to have a better than minimum chance of winning in 2020.

Polls like Iowa suggest that Trump can to be able to win even if his rating for approval at national level is below his disapproval rating. This means that Trump may be able to do exactly what he did in 201

6: win the electoral college despite the loss of popular vote.

There were four states where Barack Obama performed better than national in 2012, which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Clinton won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa or Wisconsin, he would win the electoral college. Iowa and Wisconsin will most likely continue to cause heartbeat for Democrats in 2020. Losses in both countries would cause the Democratic candidate to be absent in 2020 if he or she brings all the states that have won Clinton, and Pennsylvania.

Though the Trump approval rating (rating of disapproval rating) is headed down in Iowa, it is not as low as its approval rating is national. In 2018, its net approved national rating in the Gallup survey was -15 points. This is much lower than Iowa (-6 points). Trump's national numbers are now much worse than what's in his figures. If his net approval rating rises across the country, he will probably enter a positive territory in Iowa long before he gets into a positive territory across the country. Trump's numbers are not so good at Wisconsin, even though they tell a story like that. Gallup's poll has a 42% approval and disapproval is 53%. This makes a net approval rating of -11 points. In other words, Trump's net rating in Wisconsin is 4 points higher than the national one in 2018.

A recent study by Marquette University in the Badger state leads to the same point. The survey found that Trump's approval with voters was 44% with a disapproval of 52%, which equates to -8 points net approval. At the time this poll was in the field, the average poll of voters at national level had Trump's net estimate of -13 points. Again he illustrates that Trump is in a better (if still weak) position in Wisconsin than at a national level.
The mid-term outcomes of Iowa and Wisconsin generally support the idea that they are the right of the nation. After taking into account the places where there were no democrats or Republicans, the Democrats won the national parliament with seven points. The Democrats managed to bring two seats in Iowa and won Parliament's votes in the state with 4 points, but this is still worse than at the national level, although Republican Steve King has slipped out of scandal. The Democrats won the 3-point national vote in Wisconsin after taking into account the undisputed races. The Democrats did not come close to taking the seat of Paul Ryan, President of the Court.
Now the Democrats defeated Republican Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin and easily held the Senate seat in the state. Still, they just beat Walker with one point. The country's initial survey had a Trump approval of 48%, well over 45%, registered at national level. This is a pretty reversed move from the Democratic Party's last mid-wave in 2006, when Wisconsin was farther from the left. Then President George W. Bush had a lower approval rating in Wisconsin than at a national level.
In Iowa, the Democrats could not win the big state race in 2018. They lost the governor's choice to appointed former governor Kim Reynolds with 3 points. (There was no Iowa 2018 poll, although Trump's popularity in the Des Moines Register election was bigger than the national one.) Of course, just because Trump overtakes his national ratings in Iowa and Wisconsin right now means that 2020 will take place. Who is the candidate of the Democrats can play a decisive role in whether he will. Moreover, Trump remains unpopular enough nationally that he is still more unpleasant than I liked in Iowa and Wisconsin, so for that difference between the nation and Iowa and Wisconsin, the Trump issue will have to become more popular at the national level or Democrats will have to nominate unpopular candidates.

However, this data must be at least a little worrying for Democrats. If the Democratic candidate actually loses Iowa and Wisconsin, he or she will have to win in a country that has not voted left of the nation over the last few cycles to win the electoral college. This may not be an easy task.


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