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Elon Musk's Physics Attitude May lie in a Misguided Schedule for Complete Self-Going Teslas




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Leaders often use specific mental models to guide their approach to leadership (see my book for business 1

9454514) supports and guidance for further explanation). Let me to give a quick example.

I was introduced to a new technology firm to do some management consulting because of a recent organizational change. [19659005] The board of directors had decided to replace the CEO with someone hired directly by the military. With a long successful career in the military, the new CEO continued to try to run the company in military style. This move was quite the opposite of that of the company culture and ultimately caused a number of difficulties and problems.

If the new CEO used his military experience and was willing to adapt it to the commercial sector, the result could have been different and possibly a push for the company. Instead, he sank into what he already knew, serving as a kind of mental anchor, shaping all his actions as the firm's supreme leader.

In this sense, the mental model that governs leadership behavior can be a two-edged sword. On the one hand, the mental model provides a comfortable framework for decision-making and enforcement action, believing that if it worked well before, it would certainly work well again.

Unfortunately, it can also be a subtle, and sometimes unrealized, trap that causes the leader to see the world through the lens of the mental model, even when the model can be applied incorrectly or assigned to a new situation.

Tesla And The Leadership of Elon Musk

Going to another example of mental models of leadership, think about the Tesla case and what's going on there.

Elon Musk is a well-known leader who has often tried the importance of physics, which underlies his way of thinking, shaping how and why he takes different actions and approaches to problem solving.

You can easily find published quotes from his such as "physics is a good frame of mind" and "I tend to approach things from the frame of physics" that fits into one of his undergraduate degrees in physics and his initial pursuit of a doctorate in physics (he quit after two days, deciding to use other options).

Consider how this physical way of thinking has and continues to shape his leadership efforts.

And, in particular, also think that his thinking in physics might cast doubt on his hopes and views for the soon-to-be-achieved complete self-driving car in Tesla of which few in the automotive industry self-driving cars are considered plausible and are puzzled by the claimed overflow in a moon-like achievement.

The status of Tesla Toward True Self-Driving Cars

There are innumerable speculative reasons why Elon Musk believes so fervently that Tesla is on pace for supposed achievement true self-driving cars.

As a clarification, most would agree that a true self-driving car is one that can operate completely autonomously, meaning that AI drives the car and does not involve human driving at all, often called level 4 or level 5 of an autonomous car scale.

Level 2, which is in principle the classification for current Tesla models even when incorporating today's AutoPilot, and Level 3, which is gradually emerging, consists of semi-autonomous capabilities that require a human driver to be behind the wheel of the car.

Any such sharing agreement requiring a human and AI driver is not properly classified as autonomous or fully autonomous, but instead is at best semi-autonomous at best.

According to many comments made by Elon Musk, it is concluded that Tesla is on the verge of having a truly autonomous or fully autonomous self-driving ability soon, perhaps by the end of this year or sometime in the first part of next year .

Many have tried to understand his words in order to understand whether this is what he is showing, since there is uncertainty as to how he expressed the question. There is a lot of heated and thirsty debate about what he has stated in his actual words, over what those words suggest.

If for a moment we were to assume that the real consequence was that the fully autonomous ability of the car was within Tesla's boundaries, it would be quite remarkable and unexpected a miraculous turn of events, if that were actually true. There is seldom publicly presented evidence from Tesla that they are really that close to achieving true self-driving cars, and the April 19, 19459015 Investor Day event in April did little to fulfill such a promise (it was just machine learning 101 types of presentations).

Why, then, does Elon Musk believe that Tesla is close to the true realization of a self-driving car, perhaps these reasons may apply:

· & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; ; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Because he knows this to be true, and he will indeed do as he has predicted he will,

· & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Because he wants it to happen, though there may be a gap between what he wants and what the company will actually be able to achieve,

· & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Because he uses marketing communication to draw attention to Tesla in its desire to sell more Tesla cars and keep the company running,

· & Nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Because as a persistent entrepreneur he has beaten the odds before and in this case, although the odds may be steep, he uses faith as a motivator for Tesla to strive for the powerful,

you are welcome to choose one of the reasons above and you may even have some additional reasons that come to mind.

For now, take a closer look at the question of his perhaps overdependence on physical thinking.

It's time to unpack it.

Physics as a mental model

Physics is great.

I wanted to start with this declaratory statement so that you know that I will not in any way argue that physics is acidic or objectionable.

Not only is physics great, but it did pretty well with Elon Musk.

Want to do space travel?

If so, physics is a key foundation. Musk has had some remarkable success in space travel.

Want to run large tunnels underground?

If so, physics is a key foundation. Musk has had some success in the area of ​​boring tunnels.

Want to capture and use solar energy?

If so, physics is a vital aspect. Musk has been successful in the field of solar energy.

Want to make a car that uses batteries and is an exciting EV?

If so, physics matters.

For Tesla it cannot be denied that their cars are marvels of physics and the achievement of EV in everyday life.

On the whole, the theme that I drive is that physics is a boon to Ilon Musk in terms of the many endeavors he pursued.

As such, the psychic model of physics is increasing. With every success, the direct virtue of applying the approach of physics is enhanced and further strengthened.

That brings us to the end.

The friction is that AI in order to achieve a true self-driving car is not at first glance a problem in physics. Unfortunately, if indeed it is so that physics is not the right tool to solve the problem of driving AI, an unwavering belief in physics will go wrong and try to get out of solving a problem that is beyond the mental model used.

The mental model could lead to an understanding of the problem and an exaggeration of ways or chances or speed in solving the problem.

Self-driving car AI is not physics per se

What does it mean to assume that self-driving AI is not a physics problem?

At present, no one really knows how the brain works.

Some would argue that AI needed to drive a car should be "equivalent" to human thinking in the sense that AI should be able to perform the same kind of mental processing as human drivers do. This does not necessarily mean that the human brain needs to be recreated in a machine, as it may also be that we are somehow able to simulate how the brain works and achieve the same end result of being able to "think" in an appropriate [19659005] Suppose you believe that the brain is a problem in physics.

You will probably be looking to find equations such as Einstein's post "e equals mc squared" that would universally explain how the brain works.

You will get the best "physicists" of the brain to break it. and find out how the damn thing works.

The reality is that today we are far from being everywhere until the discovery of formulas that reveal the inner processing of the human brain. No matter how many scientists and engineers you throw at the problem, we're just not there yet.

Therefore, if you foresee that the achievement of true autonomous cars requires that you be able to solve the problem of how the human brain functions, which could be said to be essential for the introduction into AI of the ability to drive a human driver , you need to make sure of a long journey ahead .

This is also partly why reaching level 3 cars is somewhat easier because you still rely on the steering wheel of a person who can handle when the automatics can't coped with a driving situation. Thus, level 3, which may perhaps extend to say 90% of what a human driver can do (it does not yet exist), will still need that human driver in the driver's seat, to secure the remaining 10%.

For a truly autonomous car, AI must be able to do 100% of what a human driver could do.

This is a tall order.

Now, I am not saying that the human brain violates the laws of physics. Of course it doesn't. There is no doubt that the brain is a physical composition and obeys the physics of our time.

However, let us be clear, physics is unable to explain the mysteries of how the mass of the brain in our skulls arises for us to think. The chemistry also doesn't explain it. Neither is biology. Engineering does not explain it. And so on.

Neuroscience tries to explain it but we are still just primitives of discovery.

Many researchers in many fields are dealing with the lasting secrets of how minds arise as a matter of our brains.

Conclusion

Some would suggest that Elon Musk's efforts for to reorganize the Tesla AutoPilot team is an indicator of the mindset of physics, namely to try to change physics. to transplant the best "physicists" (AI Developers) with the belief that this will solve the problem of AI when driving humans.

Can its basic physical basis guide it in the first place in solving the problem of the ability to Self-driving car AI?

As mentioned earlier, the mental model of the lead q can be a double-edged sword.

This is the famous saying that if you have a hammer in your hand, everything looks like a nail.

Thinking physics can handle a lot in many circumstances, but when you encounter a problem that does not seem particularly appropriate for the physical frame, the leader may try to use a hammer when the hammer does not get the results they want.

We will have to wait and see what happens.

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Leaders often use specific mental models to guide their approach to leadership (see my book on business guidance and leadership for further let me give you a quick example.

I was brought in

Borough d Directors decided to replace the CEO with someone hired directly from the military. As a senior officer with a long successful career in the Army, the new CEO. he continued to try to run the company in a military style, a move that was quite contrary to the company culture and ultimately caused a number of difficulties and problems.

If the new CEO uses his military experience and is ready to adapt it to the business sector, the result may be different and probably a push for the company. Instead, he sank into what he already knew, serving as a kind of mental anchor, shaping all his actions as the firm's supreme leader.

In this sense, the mental model that governs leadership behavior can be a two-edged sword. On the one hand, the mental model provides a comfortable framework for decision-making and enforcement action, believing that if it worked well before, it would certainly work well again.

Unfortunately, it can also be a subtle, and sometimes unrealized, trap that causes the leader to see the world through the lens of the mental model, even when the model may be misapplied or assigned to a new situation.

Tesla and the Leadership of Elon Musk

Going to another example of mental models of leadership, think about the Tesla case and what's going on there.

Elon Musk is a well-known leader who has often touched on the importance of physics at the heart of his way of thinking, shaping how and why he takes different actions and approaches to problem solving.

You can easily find published quotes from him like "physics is a good frame of mind" and "I tend to approach things from a physical frame" that fits into one of his undergraduate degrees in physics and his initial PhD degree in physics (he left after two days, opting to use other options).

Let's think about how this physical thinking has and continues to shape his leadership efforts.

And, in particular, also think that his way of thinking in physics might undermine his hopes and views for the soon-to-be-achieved complete self-driving car in Tesla of which few in The self-driving car industry thinks it's likely, and they are puzzled by the claimed overflow in a moon-like achievement.

Tesla's status as a true self-driving car

There are innumerable speculative reasons why Elon Musk believes so fervently that Tesla is on pace to pursue a self-driving real self .

As a clarification, most would agree that a true self-driving car is one that can operate completely autonomously, meaning that AI drives the car and does not involve human driving at all, often called level 4 or level 5 on the scale of the autonomous car.

Level 2, which is generally the classification for current Tesla models, even when it incorporates today's AutoPilot, and Level 3, which is gradually emerging, consists of semi-autonomous capabilities that require the human driver to be in the wheel of a car.

Any such sharing agreement requiring a human driver and AI is not properly classified as autonomous or fully autonomous and instead is semi-autonomous at best.

According to numerous comments made by Elon Musk, there is an indication that Tesla is on the verge of having a truly autonomous or fully autonomous self-driving ability soon, perhaps by the end of this year or sometime in the first part of next year .

Many have tried to understand his words in order to understand whether this is what he is showing, since there is uncertainty as to how he expressed the question. Съществуват множество разгорещени и любопитни дебати за това, което той е заявил в действителните си думи, спрямо онова, което тези думи предполагат.

Ако за миг предполагаме, че наистина автономното значение е, че напълно автономната способност на автомобила е в границите на Tesla, би било по-скоро забележителен и неочакван чудоден обрат на събитията, ако това всъщност беше вярно. От Тесла има рядко публично представени доказателства, че те наистина са толкова близки до постигането на истински автомобили за самостоятелно шофиране, а събитието за Деня на инвеститорите в април през април не направи малко подобно обещание (това беше просто машинно обучение 101 вида презентации).

Защо тогава изглежда, че Елон Мъск вярва, че Тесла е близо до истинската реализация на автомобили, може би тези причини могат да се прилагат:

· Защото той знае, че това е истина и наистина ще се случи така той е предвидил, че това ще стане,

· Защото той иска това да се случи, макар че може да има пропаст между това, което той иска, и това, което фирмата всъщност ще успее да постигне,

· Защото той използва маркетингова комуникация да привлече вниманието към Tesla в желанието да продаде повече автомобили на Tesla и да поддържа компани та в ход,

· Защото като напрегнат предприемач той е победил коефициентите преди и в този случай, въпреки че шансовете ми да бъде стръмен, той използва вярата като мотиватор за Tesla да се стреми мощно,

· Тъй като неговата физика нагласа го подтиква да подцени трудността да постигне истински автомобили за самостоятелно шофиране и го накара да изравни AI на самостоятелно шофиране

Добре дошли сте да изберете някоя от гореспоменатите причини и дори може да имате някои допълнителни причини, които ви идват на ум.

За сега, тук да вземем по-подробно разглеждане на въпроса за неговата може би свръхзависимост от физическото мислене.

Време е да го разопаковате.

Физиката като умствен модел

Физиката е страхотна.

I исках да започна с това декларативно изявление, така че да знаете, че аз по някакъв начин няма да споря, че физиката е кисела или недоброжелателна.

Не само физиката е страхотна, но и доста добре се справи с Елон Мъск.

Искате ли да правите космически пътувания?

Ако е така, физиката е ключова основа. Мъск има доста забележителен успех в областта на космическите пътувания.

Искате ли да прокарате големи тунели под земята?

Ако е така, физиката е ключова основа. Мъск има известен успех в областта на скучните тунели.

Искате ли да улавяте и използвате слънчевата енергия?

Ако е така, физиката е жизненоважен аспект. Мъск има успех в областта на слънчевата енергия.

Искате ли да направите кола, която използва батерии и е вълнуващо EV?

Ако е така, физиката има значение.

За Tesla не може да се отрече, че техните автомобили са чудеса на физиката и постигането на EV в ежедневието.

Като цяло темата, за която карам е, че физиката е благодат за Илон Мъск по отношение на многото начинания, които той е преследвал.

Като такъв, психическият модел на физиката все повече се засилва. С всеки успех, пряката добродетел на прилагането на подхода на физиката се засилва и допълнително се засилва.

Това ни отвежда в крайна сметка.

Търкането е, че AI за постигане на истинска самоуправляваща се кола не е на пръв поглед проблем във физиката.

За съжаление, ако наистина това е така, че физиката не е правилният инструмент за решаване на проблема с шофирането на AI, непоколебимата вяра във физиката ще се обърка и ще се опита да се измъкне в решаване на проблем, който се намира извън използвания ментален модел.

Менталният модел би могъл да доведе до разбиране на проблема и прекаляване с начините или шансовете или бързината при решаването на проблема.

AI на автомобили със самостоятелно управление не е физика per se

Какво означава да предположим, че AI за самостоятелно шофиране на автомобили не е проблем по физиката?

Понастоящем никой всъщност не знае как работи мозъкът.

Някои биха заявили, че AI, необходим за управление на автомобил, трябва да бъде "еквивалентен" на човешкото мислене в смисъл, че AI трябва да може да извършва същия вид психическа обработка, каквато правят човешките шофьори. Това не означава непременно, че човешкият мозък трябва да бъде пресъздаден в машина, тъй като може също така да бъде, че по някакъв начин сме в състояние да симулираме как работи мозъкът и да постигнем същия краен резултат от възможността да „мислим“ в подходяща

Да предположим, че вярвате, че мозъкът е проблем във физиката.

Вероятно ще търсите да намерите уравненията като постулацията на Айнщайн „e equals mc squared“, която универсално би обяснила как функционира мозъкът.

Ще получите най-добрите „физици“ на мозъка, за да го разбият. и разберете как работи прокълнатото нещо.

Реалността е, че днес ние сме далеч от това да бъдем навсякъде до откриването на формулите, които разкриват вътрешната обработка на човешкия мозък. Без значение колко учени и инженери се хвърляте върху проблема, ние просто още не сме там.

Следователно, ако предвидите, че постигането на истински автономни автомобили изисква да можете да решите проблема с това как функционира човешкият мозък, който би могъл трябва да се твърди, че е от съществено значение за въвеждането на AI в способността за шофиране на човешки шофьор, трябва да се убедиш в дълго пътуване напред.

Това също е отчасти защо постигането на автомобили от ниво 3 е малко по-лесно, тъй като все още си зависим при наличие на човешки шофьор за волана, да може да поеме, когато автоматиката не може да се справи с ситуация на шофиране. По този начин ниво 3, което може би може да се простира, за да каже 90% от това, което може да направи човешкият водач (това все още не съществува), все още ще се нуждае от този човешки водач на мястото на водача, за да осигури останалите 10%.

За наистина автономен автомобил, ИИ трябва да може да направи 100% от това, което би могъл да направи човешкият шофьор.

Това е висок ред.

Сега, не казвам, че човешкият мозък нарушава законите на физиката. Разбира се, не става. Няма съмнение, че мозъкът е физически състав и се подчинява на физиката на нашето време.

Въпреки това, нека бъде ясно, физиката не е в състояние да обясни загадките как масата на мозъка в черепите ни възниква, за да можем да мислим. Химията също не го обяснява. Нито биология. Инженерингът не го обяснява. И така нататък.

Невронауката се опитва да обясни това, но ние все още сме само примитивите на откритието.

Много изследователи в много области се справят с трайните тайни на това как умовете изплуват от материята на нашия мозък.

Заключение

Някои биха предположили, че усилията на Елон Мъск за реорганизация на екипа на Tesla AutoPilot е индикатор за мисленето на физиката, а именно опит да прекрои и презастрои най-добрите „физици“ (разработчици на AI) в убеждението, че това ще реши проблема с AI при шофиране на хора.

Може ли неговата твърда основа на физиката да го води по първостепенен път при решаване на проблема със способността на AI за самостоятелно управление на автомобила?

Както бе споменато по-рано, ментален модел на лидер може да бъде меч с две остриета.

Това е известното указание, че ако имате чук в ръка, всичко изглежда като пирон.

Мисленето на физиката може да се справи много при много обстоятелства, но когато срещне проблем, който не изглежда особено подходящ за физическата рамка, лидерът може да се опита да използва чук, когато чукът няма да получи резултатите, които желаят.

Ще трябва да изчакаме и да видим какво се получава.


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