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Forecast for Hurricane Dorian: Scouring the Florida East Coast, storming Georgia and the Carolinas




Hurricane Dorian early Wednesday morning. (NOAA)

Hurricane Dorian gradually left Florida after Wednesday, defining its sights on the shores of Georgia and then the Carolinas. These areas face the triple threat of "devastating winds, floods and rain from life-threatening storms," ​​according to the National Hurricane Center.

Dorian stayed far enough offshore to save Florida largely from the worst of his anger, projected to take a much closer approach to the Carolina coastline late Wednesday and Thursday, and may even to reach land. The impact is therefore expected to be more severe.

Around Charleston, USA, for example, wind gusts can reach 80 mph and water levels can be ranked among the first five levels ever recorded due to a combination of ocean scale and 6 to 10 inches of rain.

Even the Virginia tide and tide of South Delmarva can withstand tropical storms by Friday, after which the storm is expected to finally go out to sea.

19659008] The Category 2 storm, although no longer the power plant that devastated the northwestern Bahamas, has expanded in size. This means that its strong winds cover a larger area capable of generating giant waves and forcing large amounts of water to shore.

Last

At 7 am On Wednesday, the storm was 90 miles east of Daytona Beach, Flag., Moving northwest with 8 mph. The high winds maintained by the summit were 105 mph. h, which makes it a high-class Category 2 storm. Dorian is expected to maintain its current intensity by Thursday.

The storm is growing over the weekend; Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical wind force extends up to 175 miles.

Radar from central and northern Florida showed that Dorian's outer rain bands rotate inward, producing heavy rain and strong winds. On Wednesday, high wind gusts reached 50 to 70 mph in the cities of Volusia and Brevard on Wednesday.

"Stay alert for strong wind gusts and brief gusts of heavy rainfall today," National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida, tweet . "The beach conditions are dangerous from # Dorian . The surf remains high and rough, along with the threat of coastal flooding and beach erosion. "

Forecast for Georgia, Carolina and Virginia

Conditions are expected to deteriorate by mid-morning in coastal Georgia and late Wednesday in South Carolina, North Carolina may take until Thursday afternoon for conditions to begin. . Most of the effects of the storm in southeastern Virginia have to last until Friday morning.

The severity of Dorian's effects will be closely related to the extent to which Dorian tracks ashore and whether it makes landfall. Most computer models now predict downtown Dorian to get very close to the South Carolina coast and go ashore in North Carolina with the highest chance over the Outer Banks.

Computer models typically predict that a storm center should stay far enough off the Georgia coast to limit winds to a tropical storm (39 to 73 mph) and 3 to 6 inches of rainfall. . Tropical storm warnings apply here.

In the Carolinas, under hurricane warning, sustained winds can reach 60 to 80 mph with greater gusts, especially along North Carolina's foreign banks. Rainfall is projected to be 5 to 10 inches and localized rainfall to 15 inches, which means a risk of flash flooding.

The coastlines of Georgia and South Carolina are particularly vulnerable to floods from storms, even from storms that do not make landfall due to the shape of the landfall in and just offshore, as well as the effects of rising sea levels and dropping landfall in the weather. The impact can reach 3 to 5 feet in Georgia and 4 to 7 feet from the coast of South Carolina north to Cape View, North Carolina, north, with the possibility of a 2- to 4-foot jump north to Hampton Rhodes, Va. [19659023] The Meteorological Office's forecast office in Charleston, North Carolina, predicts that a storm flood may begin to be observed there on Wednesday, long before the storm's circulation center. Torrential rainfall of 6 to 10 inches or more can exacerbate overvoltage flooding, preventing drainage back into the sea.

"The combination of significant storm floods and heavy rainfall will increase the risk of flooding, especially along the coast, including downtown Charleston, subway sections of Savannah and nearby coastal communities," writes the Charleston Meteorological Services Office. "This is a dangerous situation and preparation must be hastened to end today."

Depending on the time of the maximum storm, Charleston may see this storm bring one of the five largest water levels to entry

According to the Charleston Meteorological Services, based on the current forecast path, the result can be particularly severe. Among the possible effects, he listed: "Large areas of deep floods with storm floods, accentuated by breaking waves. Structural damage to buildings with several washes. Damage mixed with floating debris. Locations can be uninhabited for an extended period.

Locations north of Virginia Beach to Delmarva can be cut by storms Friday and Saturday, with heavy rainfall, tropical winds and coastal flooding.

A tropical storm clock is in effect from the North Carolina / Virginia border to Chincoteague, including the Virginia Beach area, as well as Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to the south. It can rain up to 3 to 6 inches of rain.

"The risk of wind and rain impacts along parts of the Virginia coast and south Chesapeake Bay," writes the Hurricane Center. "Residents in These Areas Must Continue to Watch Dorian Progress."

Florida Forecast

The forecast continues to hold back the most dangerous Dorian winds and the highest levels of storm floods since the approach of drought in Sunshine State. , but brought the storm close enough to produce heavy rain, noxious winds and a few feet jump from Volusia County north to the Georgia border on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions, with sustained winds exceeding 39 mph, are likely and hurricane conditions, with sustained winds of at least 74 mph, are possible if the storm turns west.

Areas particularly vulnerable to storm flooding, such as Jacksonville, Florida, may see significant flooding depending on the exact path and

In Florida, the latest storm forecast indicates that if a peak jump occurs at the time of low tide, 3 to 5 feet of watt can be seen in the region of Volusia County in the north.

Total rainfall is projected to vary from 3 to 6 inches in northeast Florida, near the coast, with decreasing amounts inland and southwards.

The northwestern Bahamas took a nightmarish, 40-hour direct hit.

Between late Sunday and Tuesday, Dorian collided in the northwestern Bahamas with gusts of up to 220 mph and a storm of 23 feet. Videos and images emanating from the Bahamas show the absolute devastation of the Big Abaco Islands and the Big Bahamas, two places where the eye of the storm made land.

Grand Bahama Island was attacked by this storm, which had several places on Earth experienced, remaining in the eye of a large hurricane (between categories 3 and 5) for 40 hours. The eye wall is the heaviest part of the hurricane, which contains its strongest winds and generates the most devastating storm surge.

Dorian fell into a virtual standstill until she came across the northwestern Bahamas. Between 3am on Labor Day and 5am On Tuesday, the storm moves only 30 miles in 28 hours . In addition to wind gusts of up to 220 mph and a storm of 23 feet, in some areas it is estimated to be 40 inches of rain

Dorian's place in history

Dorian is bound for the second strongest storm ( judged by its maximum sustained winds), ever recorded in the Atlantic, after Hurricane Alan in 1980 and, after striking the northern Bahamas, bound by Hurricane Labor Day in 1935 for the title of the fittest The Atlantic Hurricane on Land .

Only the second Category 5 hurricane to land in the Bahamas since 1983, according to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. The only other is Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The International Hurricane Database continued uninterrupted until 1983. on record, its pressure, which reached the bottom of 910 millibars, was significantly lower than Andrew's hurricane when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992 (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm). [19659042] With Dorian reaching Category 5 power, this is for the first time since the beginning of the satellite era (in the 1960s) that Category 5 storms had developed in the tropical Atlantic for four straight years, according to Capital Weather tropical weather expert Grian Brian McNoldy.

The unusual strength of Dorian and the rate at which it develops is in line with expectations of more intense hurricanes in a warming world, with some studies showing an increase in hurricane rapid intensification, and modeling studies projecting work in the frequency of Category 4 and 5. storms.

Dorian can also e a has set a record for the longest period of Category 4 and 5 conditions to hit one spot in the North Atlantic Ocean since the dawn of the satellite era, but historical data is relatively scarce.


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