Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump reduced the touch to an 8-point, 10-point advantage in early October, according to a national Fox News poll of likely voters
Biden is 52-44 percent ahead. Three weeks ago it was 53-43 percent. His advantage is beyond the margin of error in the survey sample. Two percent support a third-party candidate and 2 percent have not decided.
Click here to read the survey results
Among likely voters, support for the former vice president has been between 51-53 percent since early September. This is particularly noteworthy in this year’s 2016 race, when none of the candidates exceeded 48% support in the pre-election polls – or the final election results.
The number of registered voters supporting Biden is almost identical to his support, which lasted until a hypothetical match in 2015. At that time, he led Trump by 50-37 percent.
“Biden has a significant national lead, many votes have already been cast and there are few unresolved issues,” said Democratic sociologist Chris Anderson, who is conducting the survey with Republican Daron Shaw. “It’s hard to see that the national race has changed significantly in recent days, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Trump to push the needle for victory in Electoral College again.”
The survey shows that Trump is preferred by white men (+17 points), rural voters (+18) and white evangelical Christians (+50). These margins are lower than what he received in 2016. According to the Pew Research Center, confirmed by voter data, he won white men by 30 points, rural voters by 25 and white evangelicals by 61.
Biden is the favorite among women (+17 points), suburban women (+29), Spaniards (+18), blacks (+66) and voters under the age of 30 (+32). This is a mixed bag compared to the support of Hillary Clinton in 2016. It won women with 15, women in the suburbs with 11 and voters under 30 with 30 – but won the blacks with 85 points and the Spaniards with 38.
The adults backed Trump by 9 points in 2016, but still favored Biden with 10 in the new survey.
The Independents, a small subgroup, prefer Biden at 54-32 percent, a group Trump won by one point last time.
“Biden has the upper hand among key groups, especially the elderly, suburbanites and independents,” Shaw said. “Trump needs a few more points from these groups to win re-election. But the main obstacle is the stubborn stability of the race; not much has changed throughout the year despite pandemics, economic collapse and mass social unrest. “
Another big difference in this election is that voters find one of the candidates liked. This is in stark contrast to 2016, when voters viewed Clinton and Trump negatively.
Biden has a net +11 personal rating: 55 percent view it positively against 44 percent unfavorably.
For Trump, 44 percent view it positively and 55 percent negatively, putting him underwater with 11 points. In addition, 48 percent have a “strongly” unfavorable opinion of him compared to 34 percent of Biden.
Biden has a 4-point support force, as slightly more of his supporters (86 percent) say they are “extremely” committed to their candidate than Trump supporters (82 percent).
And slightly more of those who prefer Biden (78 percent) feel “extremely” motivated to vote than those who support Trump (74 percent). In November 2016, more Trump voters (64 percent) than Clinton voters (54 percent) were “extremely” interested in the race.
However, only about 6 out of 10 Biden supporters say their vote is largely in favor (57 percent), while 8 out of 10 Trump supporters say the same (80 percent).
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Biden supporters (41 percent) are more than twice as likely as Trump supporters (18 percent) to describe their vote as “against” the other candidate.
Most of those who voted back against Trump personally (53 percent), while the majority of voters by mail went to Biden (65 percent).
More than one in three voters say they have already voted, and among this group, the former vice president is 29 points ahead. Trump leads by 16 points among those who plan to vote on election day.
Overall, 46 percent of likely voters approve of Trump’s work as president, while a majority of 54 percent disapprove (46 percent “strongly” disapprove). His best marks were in April this year, when views on his performance split to 49-49% (registered voters).
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Conducted on October 27-29, 2020, under the joint leadership of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with 1,318 randomly selected registered voters across the country who spoke to live interviewers as well. on both landlines and mobile phones. The survey includes results among 1,246 likely voters. The survey has a margin of error in the sample of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for both registered and probable voters.
Fox News’s Victoria Balara contributed to this report.