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Government closure: Probability simply rises again

This is because President Nancy Pelosi (California) said she and her majority in the Democratic House would not agree to a short-term rise in the debt ceiling if a wider budget deal could not be reached. Pelosi said that this idea, which was sold by the White House as a B plan in case talks between Speaker and Finance Minister Steve Munchin failed, is not "acceptable to our group."

This may lead to government closure: Parliament must continue its annual August holiday on July 26 and Munchkin warned that the government could run out of its money to pay its bills by the beginning of September if the debt ceiling is not raised. If a long-term budget deal can not be concluded ̵

1; and Pelosi sticks to its weapons that the Democrats will not go through a short-term increase in the debt ceiling – that might be the exclusion of the city.

You will remember that the story was made at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 when the government was jailed for 35 days among – and stop me if you hear this! – the inability of the White House and Democrats in Congress to agree on legislation to finance the government's work. A survey conducted during and after closure shows that Americans see the blame for closure largely with President Donald Trump because of his requests for financing his border wall to be included in the spending package. (Trump finally declared a national breakdown at the border, allowing him to complete the budgeting process and take money from other pots around the government to begin building the walls). Sentence-led Republican Congressman Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) and minority leader at Kevin McCarthy (California) – say public optimism about the chances of a deal. "We should not leave for August without doing this" McCarthy said on Tuesday that it is necessary to raise the debt ceiling. "We are very close to happening."


There is no doubt that the closure of the government is such a case that it a) attracts national attention even from people who pay attention only to politics. The general mood in the country that Washington is hopelessly broken and c) can lead to unpredictable political reactions. The three results are something that politicians hate – especially the uncertainty about who is blamed for stopping and how (or whether) it changes the wider political dynamics in 2020

So there will be clear efforts – on all sides – to do something before Parliament leaves Washington at the end of next week.

But the context matters here. It is hard to imagine that Democrats from Congress and the White House are far beyond what they are now – as Trump continues to embark on his racist tweets directed at the Democratic Representations Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (New York) Ilhan Omar (Minnesota), Ayanna Pressley (Massachusetts) and Rashida Tlaib (Michigan). This move – and its subsequent doubling, tripling, and doubling – further sparked an already explosive relationship between the two branches of the government.

Pelosi also brings with him the knowledge that the last stop of the government was accused, the majority of Americans, of Trump. And that the President's approval number for work remains low at 40 in the national survey. And that her base would punish her not for refusing to play ball – or, in the mind of the base, to surrender – to the demands of this White House.

For Trump's part, he is more and more keen to take his ball and go home, legislating. There is no better example than the decision to declare a state of emergency in order to get money for the wall that Congress will not give him. From the first few years of power, of course, we know that Trump is extremely unpredictable and may change his mind about the closure of the government 15 times between now and next Friday.

Let's be clear: Betting odds are still in favor of Pelosi and Manchu achieves a deal that avoids another government closure. But the chances of switching off have increased from 1 in 100 to 1 in much less than on Monday night.

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