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How unsuccessful presidential candidates can hold the key to a Democratic Senate majority in 2020.



This idiom has never been more true than at this time for Democratic campaigns – both for the president and for those who are trying to win the Senate majority in 2020.

See, candidates like former Texas rap. Beto O & # 39; Rourke, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenloop and Montana's Steve Bullock, are currently not prospering in their presidential bid. Rourke, who joined the 2020 huge fanfare contest in March after nearly-upset Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas, has not been able to find a real moment since. Hickenloper's attempt to be a moderate alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden failed. And Bullock got into the race so late that he was struggling to be a factor in Iowa or anywhere.

It seems unlikely that the troika ̵

1; with the possible exception of O 'Roarke, even though it may seem like a long shot now – will have the desired arc to the top of the presidential field. But all three would be absolutely recruits to the Senate recruits for Democrats trying to gain momentum for the majority next fall. (Senate Democrats must take four seats to take majority if they win the White House and five seats if Trump is re-elected.)

Take Colorado. Freshman Sen. Corey Gardner is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican figures in the country. (Colorado is one of two states in which a Republican senator is running for reelection in the state won in 2016. Hillary Clinton. Maine, where Susan Collins is running for a fifth term, is the other.)

Democrats in the race, there is no doubt that Hickenlooper, a two-time governor and two-time mayor of Denver, would be a clear favorite for the nomination if he decides to run. While Hickenlooper may not clear the field of other candidates, his candidacy will certainly resolve the herd. A poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research's Democratic Electoral Agency and published last month showed Hickenlooper 50+ points ahead of his closest Democratic rival in a hypothetical Senate primary. And given Gardner's vulnerabilities, Hickenlooper would have to be considered a bet with even money (or better) to be the next state senator, coming in 2021.
That's why, at least according to the New York Times, Hickenloop thinks to change competitions. "Officials discussing the Hickenlooper campaign said on Tuesday that the former bilateral governor was paying serious attention to the move to the Senate race, but stressed that no final decision had been made yet," Reid Epstein wrote in the Times Tuesday night.

Hicklenuper has previously admitted to talking with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) about the possibility of a challenge to Gardner. And in an interview with CNN's Anna Cabrera last weekend, the former governor said the time was coming for him to assess his political future.

"You know, at some point I'm just getting stubborn," Hicklenuper said, "And I didn't really sit down and find out when it was. I probably should do this maybe this weekend. But at this point I'm still focusing on what I do with my team every day to try and be the next president of the United States. And I don't rule out anything. But I don't do it – I don't even think about it right now. "

Rourke and Bullock aren't even willing to acknowledge the possibility of the Senate being a very attractive backup plan if their current presidency The aspirations are not working. But that has not stopped many other people from talking about this prospect.

In a weekend op-ed, the Houston Chronicle Editorial Board wrote this about the future of O'Rourke: "

" So Beta, if you're listening: Come home. race for president and return to Texas to run for senator. The chances of winning the race you are in now are gone. And Texas needs you. "

There is zero indication from O & amp; # 39; Rourke that he's even considering this possibility, of course. And like in Colorado, Texas already has a field of Democrats fighting for a chance to take on Republican Senator John Cornyn. But again, as in Colorado, there is no doubt that if Rourke decides to run for the Senate, he will be nominated de facto . After all, this is a candidate who raised more than $ 80 million and went within a few points to upset the incumbent Republican senator in the Lone Star state less than two years ago.

Then there is Bullock – and Montana. Right now, the Senate Democrats, roughly, have nowhere to go in the face of a serious challenge against freshman Sen. Steve Dines. Bullock, who is in the midst of his second term as governor, is probably the only Democrat in the GOP leaning state who can make Dines sweat.

Except that at least so far Bullock has made it clear that he is not interested. "His answer to that question is consistent and is the same today. Governor Bullock is not running for the Senate," Bullock told Politico in May.

Here is what politics you need to remember: circumstances change. And so do the minds. While O’Rourke has already qualified for the next debate approved by the Democratic National Committee in September, neither Bullock nor Hicklenuper – and neither is likely. This makes it very difficult to continue to make the case with your donors and your staff that you are a viable candidate for the presidential nomination. And while O'Rourke has more support and more money than Hickenloader or Bullock, if he doesn't start moving to the ballot box soon, he'll also have to face the difficult choice of what's best for him, seems the most viable political future.

Senate MPs are pleased to wait – for now. The deadline for a candidate to apply for the US Senate in Texas is not until December – and next year in Colorado and Montana. So there is time.

And Senate Democrats know that if they can convince one or maybe even two of this trio to end their presidential bid and launch Senate campaigns, it would make a real difference in the majority majority. Currently, Cook's Political Report, a non-party campaign restriction site – rates only two of the 22 Republican reelection sites in 2020 as "throwing matches." (These locations are in Colorado and Arizona.) Hickenluper's candidacy would clearly enhance the party's chances in Colorado, while Bullock or O'Rourke's run will turn the current "solid Republican" races from Cook's Report into real contests where both national parties would have to spend considerable sums of money to win.

To be clear: Senate bids from Hickenlower, O & # 39; Rourke or Bullock are no guarantee that Democrats will win either these particular states or the broader majority come November 2020. But that will certainly improve their chances.


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