Category 5 hurricane Dorian parked above the northwestern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday morning, unleashing a devastating storm of storms, devastating winds and blinding rain. Monday, dangerously located near the Florida Peninsula, Monday is the critical day that will likely determine whether the state was hit or not so severely scraped.
Only tens of kilometers and fine stormy storms can make the difference between the two.
The storm subsided over Grand Baham Island. If it soon turns north, Florida will be spared Dorian's fury. But if the Dorian lumbars are a little more to the west, the more severe storm effects would submerge parts of the coastline.
"Just a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast will lead to the Dorian core near or above eastern Florida Beach," writes the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane and storm surge warnings apply to large areas of Florida's east coast.The storm refers to the storm raised by ocean storms over typically dry land.
"Although it remains uncertain how close to Dorian's eye will reach the east coast of Florida, the threat of wind damage and life threatens winds and life. storm the jump remains high, "writes the National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida." There will be significant impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects being felt inland! "
There are likely to be severe effects from the coastal Georgia storm. and Carolina in the middle and last half of the week, when Dorian picks up speed and heads north, but here too the risks are highly dependent on the details of the storm.
A dry hurricane in the Carolinas, especially in North Carolina, is an obvious possibility by the end of Thursday.
Hurricane Dorian's Newest
As of 8 a.m. Monday, the storm was 35 miles east-northeast of Freeport on Grand Baham Island and westbound by only 1 mph. The storm's high winds were 165 miles / hr, making it a solid storm of category 5. Dorian maintains a category 4 and now a category 5. intensity from Saturday, an unusually long period.
Winds from hurricane force extend outward to 45 miles from the center, and tropical force winds extend outward to 140 miles. The latest forecast from the Hurricane Center calls for Dorian to remain a Category 5 storm until Monday night before slowly weakening, but to remain a huge hurricane as it makes its closest passage to Florida (with force between Category 3 and 4) and north to Carolinas (about category 2).
"The system is expected to remain a dangerously serious hurricane over the next few days," writes the Hurricane Center.
The northwestern Bahamas take a direct hit with nightmares
While Florida and the regions farther north await the effects of the monstrous storm, a "catastrophic" scenario unfolds in the northwestern Bahamas where eyewash storms blow around center, hit on Sunday and has since held up. Three islands suffered direct hits on Sunday: Elbow Kay, Grand Abaco and Grand Bahama Island
Both at Grand Abaco and Grand Bahama Island the Hurricane Center describes a "life-threatening situation" on Sunday, which continues on Monday.
The eyepiece was still hanging Monday morning over Big Baham Island, where the storm was expected to release gusts of wind up close 200 mph, along with a storm surge of 18 to 23 feet above normal tides.
The extended nature of the direct hit means that these areas have been hit by extreme winds and storm floods at very low tide, tearing up the infrastructure and subjecting anyone who did not evacuate before the storm to a truly terrifying ordeal.
"These dangers will continue over the Big Bahama Island for most of the day causing extreme damage to the island," Hurricane Center
Pouring rain (up to 30 inches), devastating winds and storms may not alleviate essentially until the second half of Tuesday.
This is a storm that can sweep the northwestern Bahamas, especially Grand Abaco and Grand Bahama for decades. Florida Difficult Forecast
The Florida hurricane warnings focus on the period Monday night through early Wednesday. Tropical storm winds can begin in South Florida immediately after Monday night and Tuesday farther north. These winds are likely to continue on Wednesday, possibly reaching hurricane force by the end of Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on how close to the Dorian track.
Some computer models show the center of Dorian approaching closest to the northern half of the east coast of Florida on Tuesday night is Wednesday when conditions can get most dangerous.
The latest storm surge forecast for Florida shows that if the high jump occurs at low tide, the area from Lantana (south of West Palm Beach) to the mouth of the St. Mary River (north of Amelia Island) can be seen by four up to seven feet of water above ground, while the region from Deerfield Beach to Lantana can experience two to four feet.
“The threat of a life-threatening storm also increases, and severe erosion of beaches and dunes is almost certain! The combination of high tide and high astronomical tide will cause heavy leakage of waves and water, leading to flooding in many coastal areas, "writes the Melbourne Office of the Meteorological Service.
On top of all, about two to four inches of rain is  As the storm is expected to be a slow engine, the effects of wind, rain and storm may be prolonged, lingering until mid-week.
The forecast is highly sensitive to storms and fine drifts to the east or west could cause to less or greater wind, leap and rain.
Forecast for coastal Georgia and Carolina
Conditions are expected to worsen by Tuesday in coastal Georgia, by Wednesday in South Carolina, and by Thursday in North Carolina. But how uncertain is it. drought will depend on the exact trajectory of its turn ashore as it turns north and then begins to bend to the northeast.
Scenarios including direct hit, scrap and grazing are possible based on available forecasts, direct hit is probably probably North Carolina, Vol its coast as it extends in the far east Ocean.
"There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storms along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina later this week," the Hurricane Center wrote. "Residents in these areas should continue to monitor Dorian's progress and heed advice from local emergency officials."
Locations even north of Virginia Beach to Delmarva and even to Cape Cod can be pushed out of the storm on Friday and Saturday.
Most computer model forecasts maintain the Dorian center just east of the Florida coast, rather than bringing the storm eye to shore.
However, there are still some
In the north, from Georgia to the Carolinas, the boundary between the land and offshore runs is also a razor. However, of all locations between Florida and the Mid-Atlantic coast, models suggest that the North Carolina coast between Wilmington and the Outer Banks may be the most susceptible to Thursday's hurricane.
Dorian's Place in History
Dorian is bound by the second strongest storm (judged by her maximum sustained winds) ever recorded in the Atlantic after Hurricane Allen since 1980 and after striking northern Bahamas bound by Hurricane Labor Day in 1935 for the title the most powerful Atlantic hurricane on land .
Only the second Category 5 hurricane has made landfall in the Bahamas since 1983, according to Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. The only other was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The international hurricane database only returned continuously until 1983.
The high winds of the storm ranked as the strongest so far north in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida. on record, its pressure, which reached the bottom of 910 millibars, was significantly lower than Andrew's Hurricane when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992 (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm).
With Dorian reaching Category 5 power, this is for the first time since the beginning of the satellite era (in the 1960s) Category 5 storms have developed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. for four straight years, according to Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather expert at the Capital Weather Gang.
Dorian's unusual strength and the speed with which he develops is in line with expectations of more intense hurricanes in a warming world. Some studies have shown an increase in rapid hurricane intensification and modeling studies have projected work into the frequency of storms in categories 4 and 5.