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Hurricane warning issued for parts of Florida as Isaias spins in the Bahamas

Hurricane warnings off the coast of Florida as Isaias approaches
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in parts of Bahamas Fridays.
  • Isaiah sparked hurricane warnings in parts of Florida.
  • First blows can be felt in parts of Florida immediately after Saturday.
  • The forecast for this system is still uncertain due to many factors.
  • Eventually, Isaiah could affect a significant flow from the East Coast to the north, such as New England early next week.

Hurricane Isaias (e-a-e-e-a-a)) is expected to intensify as it crosses the Bahamas on Saturday and will then move near Florida this weekend before tracking the East Coast to the north as New England next week.

A hurricane warning has been issued for part of the east coast of Florida, from Boca Raton to the Volusia / Brevard County line. Hurricane conditions are expected at the end of Saturday or Sunday.

The hurricane clock has been extended, now in effect for parts of Florida from north from the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler / Volusia County line, and for South Florida from Boca Raton to Hallendale County. A watch with a hurricane is usually issued 48 hours before the expected first appearance of wind from the force of the tropics, conditions that make preparation outside difficult or dangerous.

(MORE ▼: Hurricane season conditions you need to know)

Hurricane warnings continue in the Bahamas, including Nassau, Freeport and the Abacos Islands, where hurricane conditions are expected on Saturday.

Clocks and warnings

(A clock is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when these conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Strong winds and rain strips bind the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and the Caicos Islands. Gusts of wind above 50 mph were measured in the Turks and Caicos late Thursday night and early Friday. Conditions are deteriorating in the central and northern Bahamas.

Heavy rain caused severe flooding in several areas of Puerto Rico. Just under 4.5 inches of rain was measured in San Juan on Thursday. Numerous fallen trees, mudslides and floods have been reported in southwestern Puerto Rico, according to local emergency officials. Flooding a river is recorded by USGS gauges in several locations in Puerto Rico.

(NEWS: Deadly Isaas leaves extensive damage in Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico)

Below is what we know about the forecast for possible impacts from the United States and the Caribbean.

Florida, East Coast of the United States

The NHC forecast trail below indicates that this weekend may be located near the east coast of Florida. Isaiah will then gradually move northeast near the East Coast. This is a subtle shift to the west compared to previous forecasts.

Up-to-date information and forecast route

(The red shadow indicates the potential path of the center of the system. It is important to note that gusts (especially heavy rain, heavy tides, coastal floods, winds) with each tropical cyclone usually propagate beyond its forecast path.)

There are still a number of reasons for this uncertainty, both in the track and in the intensity.

It is still too early to pinpoint the future trace and intensity of this system in relation to the continental United States and therefore the potential impacts, including rain, wind and storm floods.

Here is what we are actively discovering at the moment:

Intensity considerations

The hurricane is expected to fight some unfavorable upper-level winds – producing what meteorologists call wind cuts – on its way from the Bahamas and beyond. This is usually a nemesis of tropical cyclones.

Current satellite, wind shear analysis

(Cloud areas are shown in white. Areas with strong wind shear, wind speed difference, and altitude direction are shown in purple. Strong wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to thrive. )

However, hot water is plentiful near the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States, a factor that would favor a slow increase.

These amounts of these two competing factors should be directed towards slow intensification, as shown in the forecast of the National Hurricane Center.

Further north, land contact with Florida could weaken Isaiah on Sunday.

Tracking considerations

The long way forward relies mainly on the characteristics of the steering wheel in the atmosphere – the high level of Bermuda and the immersion of the upper level of wind flow over the Mississippi Valley. How strong Isaas is early next week also plays a role in his piece.

There is also great uncertainty about how fast Isaiah is moving near the East Coast. Some computer model predictions are faster, others a little slower. So the timing of all this can also change.

Isaias is expected to make the north and then the northeast turn this weekend early next week. But exactly when and how abruptly this turn occurs will have a strong impact on the strikes in Florida and along the East Coast. And it depends on the exact orientation and strength of these steering functions.

The National Weather Service will release balloons for additional weathering to help us understand these atmospheric steering wheels in the next few days. Hurricane hunters are also taking environmental samples around and north of Isaiah tonight to help improve the forecast.

Control factors in Play

(The high Bermuda level and the upper level above the Mississippi Valley may help guide the system in the southeastern United States, presumably surviving until then. The potential path of the National Hurricane Center forecast is shown in red.)

For now, a forecast is expected near the east coast of Florida, but it may shift to the east or west.

Isaas is expected to arrive near South Florida very early on Sunday as a hurricane and possibly central or northeastern Florida on Sunday afternoon. That would result in at least some rain, wind, high tide and a coastal flood or storm from the impact of the storm in Florida this weekend.

Probability of tropical winds and most likely arrival times

(The contours above show the probability of winds with tropical storms (at least 39 mph), according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.)

A dangerous storm surge is also possible off the east coast of Florida.

Here is the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

  • Entrance of Jupiter to Ponte Vedra Beach FL: 2-4 feet
  • North Miami Beach to the entrance of Jupiter FL: 1-3 feet

From there, it can pass close to the Carolinas on Monday, and then pass quickly near parts of the Northeast Coast as far north as New England on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The swells generated by Isaas could begin arriving on the southeastern coast of the United States as early as Saturday, leading to high tides and the risk of ruptures. The surf will remain elevated for as long as Isaiah passes.

To the north, there is an early view when winds from the strength of the tropics are possible.

Residents on the east coast from Florida to Maine need to closely monitor the progress of this system and prepare their plans. to go in case needed.

Caribbean, Bahamas Forecast

As mentioned earlier, Isaias produces strong gusts of wind and streaks of heavy rain over the northern and central Bahamas.

Current wind field

The orange circle indicates the wind strength of the tropical storms in the system (at least 39 mph) The purple circle indicates the wind strength of the hurricane (at least 74 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center. )

Precipitation of 4 to 8 inches is likely in parts of the Bahamas with parts up to Cuba up to 2 inches. Life-threatening lightning floods and mudslides are possible.

Two to four inches of rain is possible from south Florida to east-central Florida on Friday, with an isolated maximum of 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rains could also spread to East Carolina early next week.

Precipitation forecast

(This should be interpreted as a broad perspective on where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the predicted path of the tropical cyclone. Larger amounts may occur when rainfall stagnates for a period of several o’clock.)

Conditions will gradually improve in the Central and Southern Bahamas and in the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday as Isaiah moves north.

The National Hurricane Center predicts a dangerous storm 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas where winds will blow off the Bahamas.

Life-giving accelerating surfing and breaking currents are also expected in Florida.

Contact us at weather.com for important updates on Isaias.

The main journalistic mission of the meteorological company is to report on current news about the weather, the environment and the importance of science for our lives. This story does not necessarily mean the position of our parent company, IBM.

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