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Investors betting on a coronavirus vaccine know better who gets their fingers in the Global Compact

The Innovation Preparedness Innovation Coalition (CEPI) and Gavi, the vaccine alliance – two weapons of the World Health Organization (WHO) created to develop vaccines against emerging infectious diseases – did not garner much attention in the United States during the coronavirus pandemic. In March, as the United States closed, CEPI announced $ 2 billion in hopes of creating eight vaccine candidates, subjecting three through clinical trials and approval. In May, CEPI invited organizations to submit proposals for funding their vaccine applicants. By the end of August, there were nine candidates in the program, and another nine were being evaluated. The goal of the program is to provide equal access to successful vaccines to end the global pandemic. Currently, 1

72 countries have signed – 80 countries with “self-financing” and 92 countries with low and medium incomes.

Among the vaccines currently in the program are candidates from public companies Innovative (NASDAQ: INO),, Modern 09.30 NASDAQ: MRNA,, CureVac 09.30 NASDAQ: CVAC,, AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), and Novavax 09.30 NASDAQ: NVAX. The program could have real consequences for investors. The terms of the agreements can determine which vaccines end up being distributed, where they are available and how much the fee for the growing company.

A woman who receives a vaccine while wearing a face mask

Image source: Getty Images.

Noble cause

In early August, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, together with Gavi, agreed to provide start-up capital to AstraZeneca and Novavax. In return, drug manufacturers have pledged to provide 100 million doses – $ 3 per dose – to low- and middle-income countries once a vaccine is approved. The deal complements the agreement AstraZeneca signed in June to provide 300 million doses to the world’s most vulnerable.

Gavi was launched in Davos in 2000 and received funding from Norway, Germany, Japan, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Australia, Belgium, Canada, the European Union and Wellcome, a UK-based research charity. All of these organizations were established long before COVID-19 to ensure that vaccines were equally available worldwide.

Knock on the door

For its part, the United States told the WHO it would not participate in the vaccine development program. The decision is due to complaints to the WHO about its relations with China. The “by itself” approach could leave the United States without access to many promising vaccine candidates. In late March, Operation Warp Speed ​​(OWS), the government’s public-private partnership to fund the development, production and distribution of vaccines, funded its first candidate. The program currently has delivered nearly $ 10 billion to vaccine partners. These partners have advanced in clinical trials at record rates and are now in critical phase 3 studies, one step away from vaccination. Although the candidates from Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and AstraZeneca were temporarily detained in the United States, recently resumed their accession to Moderna and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) with a partner BioNTech 09.30 NASDAQ: BNTXcarrying the hopes of a vaccine on the side of their shoulders.

Earlier this summer, Pfizer and BioNTech promised 120 million doses to Japan and an undisclosed number to Canada, following approval of a successful vaccine. Supply must be sufficient; Pfizer believes it will produce 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021. In July, Pfizer also agreed to provide 100 million doses to the United States. Moderna, which has projected 20 million doses by the end of 2020 and at least 500 million by 2021, has a deal to supply 100 million doses to the United States.

Scenario planning

This combination of financing deals, doses and dates is enough to make anyone dizzy. Clearly, there are many vaccine applicants being developed by companies around the world, and where you live will have a lot to do with what vaccine is available to you. As China recently joins the CEPI vaccine initiative, the insurance policy that the program offers to countries will be available to almost all developed countries except the United States and Russia.

Like the United States, Russia has decided to do it on its own, developing its own vaccine and making deals with other countries. The country has two drug manufacturers, Bektop and the Russian Ministry of Health, with vaccines approved before the start of phase 3 trials. While Russian vaccines are being studied in several countries, they have distribution agreements with Brazil, Mexico and India.

Investing in unprecedented efforts

Investors buying shares in all COVID-19 vaccine stocks need to know which vaccines will be provided where and for how long before following the latest clinical trial news. In the United States, the best chance to make money from a vaccine may be to bet on the Pfizer-BioNTech collaboration. Like Johnson & Johnson, he is not burdened by any CEPI global dissemination agreement, but his candidate is in Phase 3 with multiple endpoints for potentially stopping the trial earlier if it proves particularly effective.

We hope that with the advent of the new year, there will be clarity around which vaccines are approved and concerns will shift from development to dissemination. An approved vaccine candidate will eventually be distributed worldwide, but the lack of cooperation and country-specific funding agreements make it a dangerous territory for investors who believe the vaccine will lead to a financial surplus and a return to normalcy. . At present, everyone can guess which companies will remove regulatory barriers and be able to distribute the vaccine widely. U.S. citizens should applaud as many people as possible, but keep their fingers crossed for Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson. If these candidates fail, getting enough doses of an approved vaccine in the United States can be difficult because of our refusal to join the global initiative.

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