Iowa Poll: Pete Butigigig rises first
Studying the rest of the field, no other candidate receives double-digit support. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar lands at 6%, with five candidates registering 3% – Sensory Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kamala Harris of California, Republic of Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, investor Tom Steyer and businessman Andrew Yang. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has not yet formally announced a 2020 bid, receives 2%. The rest of the field gets 1% or less.
Butigigig's significant growth comes after a tumultuous investment of time and money in Iowa. In the last few months, he has built one of the largest on-site operations in the country, complemented by a steady publicity campaign and strong public appearances, including a speech at the largest Democratic Party event of the year earlier this month in Des Moines.
His elevated position in Iowa is based on strong support in various demographic groups. He does about as well with self-identified Democrats as he does with independents. It also presents much the same with previous corn as first graders. And its support is almost even in cities, suburbs, towns and rural areas.
This represents a weakness for Sanders,% says 40% that they are almost certain or relatively confident in his chances against Trump compared to 53% who are not very confident or almost sure he will lose.
Among Biden's supporters, 57% say they are almost certain that he will beat Trump. Proponents of other contenders are not so pink. That's 48% for Sanders, 35% for Warren and 27% for Buttigig's supporters. Despite all of Buttigieg's strengths in this poll, the lack of confidence among his own supporters in his prospects of defeating Trump may be a warning sign given the importance of the eligibility factor for Democrats.
Commitment and enthusiasm
With colleagues who are less than three months old, there is evidence that more voters have made the decision. Among likely Democrats, 30% say they have a candidate for the first election they have decided to support. This is a 10-point increase since September, but still leaves enough room for preferences to shift before February.
Sanders is the best choice among those who decide by 28%, followed by Butigig with 22%, Biden at 14% and Warren at 12%. In fact, 57% of Sanders' supporters say they are committed to supporting the senator, while less than 30% of Biden, Butigig, and Warren's supporters say their minds are up.
Meanwhile, Butigigig is among those who could still be persuaded by 29%, followed by Warren by 20%, Biden by 16% and Sanders by 10%.
Not only are Sanders supporters more engaged, they are also the most enthusiastic. Most of the Vermont senator supporters (51%) describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic about their choices. That compares to 35% for Warren, 33% for Butigig and 25% for Biden.
In a sign of potential weakness for Biden, 27% of his supporters say they are soft whether or not they are enthusiastic about their choice. That compares to 18% for Sanders, 17% for Butigig and 16% for Warren.
There seems to be an early enthusiasm for democratic causes in 2020, as 63% now say they definitely rather than likely cackle in February. By comparison, the latest Iowa poll released before the opening of the caboose in 2008, 53% said they would definitely attend.
Here, Warren leads the pack with 72% of her supporters, saying she will definitely cackle compared to 63% for Sanders, 60% for Buttigieg and 59% for Biden.
The CNN / Des Moines / Mediacom Registry Study was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Des Moines, Iowa, Nov. 8-13, among a random sample of 500 probable Democratic coaches reached on landlines or cell phones by a live interviewer. The results for the full sample of probable maize varieties have a difference in sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.