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Home https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Business https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ JPMorgan Bot Analyzes 14,000 Trump Tweets and Finds They Have Increasing Impact on Markets

JPMorgan Bot Analyzes 14,000 Trump Tweets and Finds They Have Increasing Impact on Markets



  • JPMorgan's new Wolffew Index tracks the impact of Trump's tweets on markets.
  • "We can train a classifier to conclude how likely each tweet is to move markets," JPMorgan says in a note to customers.
  • Some words have a greater effect on markets, including China, trade and Mueller.
  • "A broad portion of assets from equities of the same name to macroproducts find that their price dynamics are increasingly due to a handful of tweets from the Commander-in-Chief."
  • See Markets Insider homepage for more stories.

JPMorgan created a tracker to monitor the impact of Trump's tweets on the markets, and the bank said it found "strong evidence" that presidential tweets were "increasingly moving US interest rates immediately after publication."

The Volfefe Index, created by the bank, has analyzed more than 10,000 Trump tweets since he took office, in order to measure their impact on interest rate volatility. The bank found that "the effect of the tweets on the market is real."

"We find strong evidence that Tweets are increasingly moving US interest rate markets as soon as they are published," JPMorgan said in a September 6 note.

MUTUAL: Take a look at the New York Stock Exchange before the election:

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The New York Stock Exchange before the election

See the gallery in New York, USA, November 7, 2016. REUTERS / Brendan McDermid

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA, November 7, 2016. REUTERS / Brendan McDermid

New York Stock Exchange Floor (NYSE) in New York, USA, November 7, 2016. Reuters / Brandon McDermid

Traders Work on the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 7, 2016. REUTERS / Brendan McDermid

Traders Work on the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA, November 3, 2016. Reitani / Brendan McDermid [19659019] Pedestrians stroll along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, United States, on Monday, October 31, 2016. US stocks have risen from the six-week level amid increasing activity of trades as traders assessed the prospects for the presidential election and the interest rates in the largest economy in the world. Photographer: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 01: Traders operate on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 1, 2016 in New York. As Wall Street continues to be uncertain about the election, the Dow Jones closing has fallen by more than 100 points. (Photo by Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA on Friday, November 4, 2016. US stocks fluctuate amid wage data increase. speculation that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates, while investors remain cautious before the upcoming presidential election. Photographer: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Traders Work on the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA, on Friday, November 4, 2016. US stocks fluctuate amid wage data that stepped up speculation. the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates, while investors remain cautious before the upcoming presidential election. Photographer: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 01: Traders operate on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 1, 2016 in New York. As Wall Street continues to be uncertain about the election, the Dow Jones closing has fallen by more than 100 points. (Photo by Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

A trader has been working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, USA, on Monday, October 31, 2016. US shares have risen for six weeks. low against the backdrop of increased transaction activity as traders evaluated the prospects for presidential elections and interest rates in the largest economy in the world. Photographer: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images




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While "the utility of a bot in evaluating a tweet is a bit limited," the bank said its findings allow it to "build statistical aggregates – Twitter-vol index – to monitor and measure changes in the market environment. "

" We can use this dataset to perform a controlled machine training exercise – in particular, we can train a classifier to conclude how likely each tweet is to move markets, "

The bank found that Trump was increasingly tweaking on "market-related topics", mainly in trade and monetary policy.

As a result, JPMorgan stated: " A large proportion of stock assets with one name next to macroproducts, they find that price dynamics are increasingly driven by a handful Tweets from Commander-in-Chief. "

JPMorgan also said that Trump averaged more than 10 tw eets a day, which has reached approximately 14.00 tweets since he took office.

 JPMorgan JPMorgan [19659007] But it said that the president of late 2018, which is also in line with the escalating trade war, is increasing the number of tweets every day. The bank said: "The tweeter is moving the market" has appeared frequency bubble this August. "

JPMorgan also noted that his" market "tweets are less popular in terms of likes or retweets you, but they also tend to contain the same keywords: China, billions, dollars, tariffs and trade. The bank also said that tweets containing Mueller were categorized as marketable.

"We can estimate how much these moving tweets have pushed up the volatility of the swap market, "said JPMorgan." This index can explain a measurable part of the implicit movement, especially in shorter queues (2-year and 5-year-olds) rates (as opposed to 10-year ones). "

The index may be approx

Trump has recently been accused of trying to move the stock markets. Trump has also consistently inserted himself into Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve to push for lower interest rates.

 Trump tweets JPMorgan

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