Actual results of the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame election vs.
* With 232 public ballots known
Source: Baseball Writers' Association of America, The Rise of Thames. notwithstanding, our projections were pretty accurate, with a mean error of 2.1 percentage points; only the totals of Halladay and Larry Walker were off by more than 4 points.
Appearing fifth, sixth and seventh in actual voting were Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. Schilling jumped to 60.9 percent from 51.2 percent last year. He has three years of eligibility remaining on the BBWAA ballot. Meanwhile, Bonds and Clemens, whose careers were tainted by allegations of performance-enhancing drug use, could only enter in a crowded field. Clemens received 59.5 percent, up from 57.3 percent last year. Bonds received 59.1 percent of the vote, up from 56.4 percent in 2018. Their glacial rate of improvement means they will be hard-pressed to hit the required 75 percent in their three remaining years on the ballot;
Walker, however, is rapidly trending towards Cooperstown: He ranked eighth in the vote percentage (54.6 percent), making a significant leap from 34.1 percent last year. Next year will be his final year of eligibility, and he is still 20 points short of election – usually an impossible task. But this year, Walker has been able to achieve such a massive gain, so his candidacy is likely to provide a genuine suspense next year
But it was headed by Rivera making history
Anyone familiar with baseball knows of Rivera's excellence. There is a strong case to be made that he is the greatest reliever in history. The 13-time All-Star is the sport's all-time saves leader with 652. He was part of five World Series championship teams in New York. In addition to his regular-season dominance, he has the lowest career post-season ERA (0.70) and most playoff saves (42) in MLB history.
And when using advanced measures to evaluate performance, Rivera stands out not just as great Dennis Eckersley ranked higher among the relievers in the JAWS metric that combines career and peak performance to evaluate Hall candidates – but as an all-time great pitcher, regardless of role
His ERA + – which adjusts a pitcher's earned run average for ballpark and run environment, enabling comparison between eras – ranks. 1 all-time among all pitchers (at least 1,000 innings)
Traditional statistics like wins and saves are increasingly viewed as poor measures to evaluate performance because they award or penalize pitchers for many factors out of their control. But even the most common new-age measure to evaluate performance, wins above replacement, is inadequate to measure reliever performance because it is part volume-based, and relievers pitch fewer innings than starters. Better measures to evaluate the performance of relief pitchers are statistics like win probability added, which reflects the change in the expectation between the appearance of the plaque and the context-neutral version of the WPA / Leverage Index
Rivera is 77th all-time in Baseball-Reference.com pitching WAR. But he ranks fifth all-time in WPA (56.6), trailing only Clemens, Lefty Grove, Maddux and Warren Spahn. In other words, he is among the elites of the elite
Of course, relievers make a greater proportion of high-leverage situations than starting pitchers do; protecting and one-run lead in the ninth inning is more critical than pitching with a one-lead lead in, say, the second. But even when employing a context-neutral win probability, Rivera still ranks as the 21st most winning pitcher of all time and is 13 spots higher than the next reliever (Hoyt Wilhelm at No. 34).
elite command with an almost unhittable pitch: his cut fastball. Though just a part of his career took place during the pitch-tracking era, he ranks second to the Dodgers stopper Kenley Jansen in the run value of his cutter
Rivera is just the eighth pitcher to work primarily as reliever to be enshrined. The others are Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. Three have joined the Hall since last year – Rivera, Smith (veterans committee, 2019) and Hoffman (BBWAA vote, 2018) – and the number of relievers figures to grow over time as bullpens are used in an ever-greater share of innings. Last season, relievers accounted for a record of 40.1 percent of innings.
The only position group with fewer players in the Hall than relief pitchers is the designated hitter group. Martinez's bat was so dominant that he made it to Hall in his final year on the ballot.
Martinez's career OPS + of 147 is tied for the 42nd best mark of all time. Martinez joined Frank Thomas and Harold Baines – another 2019 veterans committee selection – as the only players in the Hall to play more than half of their games at DH. Thomas ranks 52nd all-time in batting WAR (73.9), while Martinez ranks 80th (68.4).
Halladay, who died in a 2017 plane crash, tied with Bob Feller for 41st in all-time pitching WAR (65.5). He tied for 37th in all-time ERA + (131). The two-time Cy Young Award winner was the ultimate workhorse for his era, leading his league in four innings and over 230 innings six times. He was also the only player other than Don Larsen to throw a no-hitter in the postseason.
Mussina pitched in hitter-favorable ballparks and during the high-scoring "steroid era" of the late 1990s to early 2000s. While his traditional stats may not seem to be ellite, his career WAR (83.0) and JAWS (63.8) totals rank ahead of the average (73.4 WAR, 61.8 JAWS) for the Hall of Fame pitchers
A few years ago, to imagine pitchers like Mussina, with a 3.68 ERA before adjustments, or Halladay, with barely 200 wins, getting into the Hall of Fame. And it was probably unthinkable that anyone – let alone a relief pitcher – would be elected unanimously. But the Election Hall of Fame is changing, and that seems to be increasing both the quality and the quantity of the players being elected