Minnesota defines an outbreak as “two or more cases of disease related to time and place in which an epidemiological investigation suggests either human-to-human transmission” or some other vehicle, such as contaminated water. Public health experts say it is difficult to pinpoint an event for the overall changes in trends in light of the fact that overall transmission from the community is increasing. But experts also agree that holding such events in this climate is not the best practice for public health.
In the month leading up to the rally, the seven-day average of new cases in Bemtrami County, where Bemidji is based, was 2.85 new cases a day, according to Johns Hopkins University. On the day of the rally, it rose slightly to 3 new cases per day. But four weeks later, the county’s average new case rate has more than quadrupled, averaging 14.57 new cases a day.
On September 24, Pence and the daughter of President Ivanka Trump held an indoor audition for “Cops for Trump” at the InterContinental Hotel in Minneapolis-St. Paul. The State Department of Health found three participants in the event with Covid-19 infections.
In the month before the event, the average length of seven days was just under 180 new cases in Hennepin County and dropped to an average of 169 new cases on the day of the vice president’s visit, according to Jones Hopkins. One month later, on October 24, this daily average of new cases was over 266 new cases per day.
The increase in cases coincides with the general trend of new cases in Minnesota, which began on September 10. The average number of new daily cases in the states was 727 on September 18 and doubled more than a month later to 1,506. The state set a daily record number of new cases on October 16 with 2,290 cases.
Four more cases were tracked by the Minnesota Department of Health at a rally held by the president on September 30 in Duluth.
In addition to the September 18 rally, the counter-protest also sparked four outbreaks. The state also tracked an additional case of Joe Biden’s rally on Sept. 18 and an event attended by President Eric Trump’s son in Becker on Oct. 1.