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Mumbai will be “safer” until June 1, if there are no difficulties in vaccination, no new option | Mumbai News

Healthcare workers keep records of samples for testing passengers’ tampons loaded at LIT Railway Station in Mumbai

MUMBAI: A mathematical model analyzing the causes of Covid’s second wave in the city and future trends suggests that Covid̵

7;s growing death toll will peak in the first week of May. Covid’s case peaked a few weeks before May 1 in Mumbai.
Analyzing vaccination trends, an article presented by a team of scientists from the Tata Institute for Basic Research (TIFR), Mumbai, stated that the scenarios match The pursuit of inoculation in Mumbai (vaccinations based on the age of 15 to 20 new lacquers per month; 75% efficacy), mortality from Covid will be reduced to levels by January and February to June 1.
If vaccination continues without problems and there is no danger of a new option, Mumbai may be able to open schools by July 1 or soon thereafter, it added. “Of course, as with any forecasting exercise, forecasts are more error-prone beyond the horizon. So closer to July will be the right time to make that assessment, “said TIFR Dean Dr. Sandip Djundja, who led the team.
Covid’s ongoing second wave affected 2.3 million Mumbaikars and claimed 1,479 lives in April alone. On May 1, the city registered 90 deaths, the highest one-day fees so far this year – the highest ever in the pandemic was 120 on June 24, 2020.
The mathematical model suggests that a variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus led to the second wave, and local train services played a role in its spread. The TIFR team said the option was probably in circulation in Mumbai and other larger neighborhoods in Maharashtra in February, when the city reopened and local trains began running at almost normal frequencies. As the crowds on the roads and trains increased, the option found a favorable environment for the spread and creation of a ferocious second wave.
The newspaper says: “Opening up the economy at any time before or after February would lead to growth in variants (as it is unlikely that much of the population has been vaccinated soon) and this is the presumed key reason for the severe second wave according to our computational experiments. . “Local trains have certainly played an important role in accelerating their proliferation,” he added.
The researchers said that most of the factors blamed for the second wave, such as bad behavior suitable for Covid, increased re-infections and increased lethality of the virus or combinations, in themselves do a bad job of matching the second wave.
“We find that the most likely explanation is the presence of a small amount of an extremely infectious variant on February 1, which grew rapidly thereafter and became the dominant strain by mid-March. The scenario, in which the variant is 2 to 2.5 times more contagious than the predominant strain last year and represents 2.5% of the infected population on February 1, seems to coincide with the data, “the publication says. Given the great uncertainty in the parameters of the model, the above numbers may be far from the truth. However, the observation that Mumbai had highly infectious variants, which had a significant presence in March, is likely to be true.
As second-wave models in other areas such as Puna, Thane, Nashik and Nagpur closely follow Mumbai’s model, the doctor said such a lag could be evident for Maharashtra soon.


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