Posted on October 19, 2019 |
by Paul Fosse
October 19, 2019 by Paul Fosse
Here at CleanTechnica, we are closely following Norway as this is the first country to hit the the main point where EVs and PHEV became the default purchase for ordinary people instead of the exception, due to a generous combination of incentives and a long history of awareness. My last article about Norway highlighted the arrival of the country's Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which didn't take off, as I thought it might – most are still willing to pay a little more for the Model 3 Long Range. This May article highlighted a local story of a major Mercedes dealer in Oslo reporting a sharp drop in sales, leading to cuts. Today, a local exit speculates on some brands of cars that are lagging behind in electrifying their range.
Thus, Mazda and Ford are predominantly candidates, but so are Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Opel, Renault and others.
– Tesla Driver 🙋♂️🧢🇳🇴🚀 (@M_xalher) October 18, 2019
The article mentions the news that two new Chinese carmakers are coming to Norway next year. This is in addition to the Chinese brands Chery, MG and Volvo / Polestar. Of course, Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling car in Norway at the moment (so far), and Tesla seems to expand its leading position as a car manufacturer when it can start delivering Model Y to Norway in 2020 or 2021 
With all these new cars coming to Norway, who will be the losers? As the country has set itself the ambition of 2025 to sell only electric cars, brands that have exciting and affordable electric vehicles will do well, and brands that do not lose their share or close a shop entirely. To be honest, why would anyone buy a gasoline or diesel car today with the economy so terrible for them?
The article mentions that Norway must maintain its incentives to reach the 2025 target. It also states that Norway is not a developing market where overall sales are growing rapidly, so that when new brands take a stake , existing brands must lose a relatively similar number of sales.
The article does not list the brands that could leave the market, but Twitter user Tesla Driver / @M_xalher speculates that Mazda and Ford are prime candidates, but Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Opel, Renault and others are also at risk. Renault has just updated its Zoe EV and sold over 2000 units this year, so you don't have to leave the market. Similarly, Opel with its Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt clone) should be able to stay there until it can build more EVS. But I agree that others are at risk.
Norway has for years made it clear that it wants to move quickly to 100% EVS and when manufacturers made good cars that showed this could happen, consumers went ahead and bought them. Now we will see how the market will punish the lagging behind who did not believe Norway could do it. Many believe that the country will have to give up on its dream and allow gas and diesel sales to continue longer because either cars cannot be built or people will not buy them, or the charging infrastructure or network will not be ready. The doubters had many reasons why the country could not convert to electric vehicles. The doubters have proven wrong and those who invested with the doubters now have to pay the pepper.
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