Despite low national approval ratings and the ghost of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in battleground states, most likely to decide his re-election, according to a set of new studies by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College .
In the six closest states that were Republican in 2016, he tracks Joe Biden with an average of two points among registered voters, but remains within the margin of error.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same difference as his victory over Hillary Clinton in those states three years ago.
The results suggest that is Ms. Warren who emerges as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination may face a number of obstacles in his pursuit of president .  The poll supports the concerns of some Democrats that her ideology and gender – including f raises the question of "suitability" – may refute her candidacy among a crucial part of the electorate . Not only is it lower than its rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race may be close enough to make the difference.
In national studies, Mr Trump's political situation is in grave danger. His approval ratings are long in the low 40s, and he follows Mr. Biden with nearly nine points in the national average election rating . But as the 2016 race showed, the history of battlefield conditions can be quite different. Mr. Trump won the election by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina – even as he lost the national vote by two points.
Democrats will probably have to win three of the six states to win the White House if other states voted as in 2016 – a result that is by no means certain .
The results of Times / Siena and other data suggest that Presidential advantage in the Electoral College in relation to the nation as a whole remains intact or even increased since 2016 which raises the possibility for Republicans they can – for the third time in the last six elections – win the presidency while losing the popular vote.
There is a whole year before Election Day and many things can change . Mrs. Warren is a vigorous campaigner. With he could moderate her image or energize young and non-white voters including the millions who still cannot be included in the polls registered today. Mr Biden may lose the relatively conservative voters who currently support him; the president may cause irreparable political damage during the impeachment process.
But on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls one year before the election were as close to the end result as those made the previous day. The stability of the presidential approval rating is a reason to believe that this model may be retained for a fourth cycle, at least for the three leading and well-known Democrats tested in these polls.
While Mr. Biden ranks as the strongest Democrat in the states surveyed, polls are not necessarily good news for him either. His appeal to the Democrats depends on the view that he is a sure bet against the President, but his advantage against Mr Trump is not nearly so convenient that it can be considered a sure thing .
The Times / Siena polls depict an extremely energized electorate that remains divided by the 2016 presidential election. More than 90 percent of registered voters say " almost certain " or" very likely to vote ", exceeding 87 percent who said the same in Times / Siena polls conducted in the last weeks of the 2016 elections.
Three years later, more than 90 p supporters of Mr. Trump from 2016 approve of his turnout until more than 90 percent of Mrs. Clinton's voters approve.
The major demographic divisions in the 2016 election also remain intact. Mr Trump has struggled poorly among educated white voters and white voters, although there are indications that his position among the last group has improved modestly since the last presidential election. He opposes a broad lead among white voters who have not completed a four-year college.
In contrast to recent national polls, Times / Siena polls find that the president's leadership among working-class white voters almost corresponds to his decisive advantage in 2016. This group represents nearly half of registered voters in those states and a majority. in the northern bitcoins that have decided the last election.
The poll provides little evidence that every Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made significant progress in winning back white working-class voters who stepped down as president in 2016, at least for now. All the leading Democratic candidates are following in the districts or districts that voted for Barack Obama and then turned to Mr. Trump.
As a result, it appears that the Democrats have made little progress in regaining their traditional edge in the states of the northern battlefield, despite their relocation in mid-2018. Respondents in these states said they voted for candidates for the Democratic Congress with an average of six points, all but identical to their real margin of victory. Nearly two-thirds of Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic Congress in 2018 say they will return the president against and all three names of opponents.
However, Mr Biden holds the advantage both among registered voters and likely voters and even among those who cast their ballots in 2016. He has a 55% to 22% lead among voters who claim to support minor-party candidates like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and among those who say they voted but left the empty presidential race in 2016. This is on the cusp of a small change – just two points in favor of Mr. Biden – Among those who say they voted for or Mrs. Clinton, or Mr. Trump.
Mrs. Warren and Mr. S Anders, on the other hand, lose Mrs. Clinton's weak voice and make fewer attacks on Mr. Trump's supporters.
The wide spread among the three candidates may come as a surprise. But even in today's polarized era, 21 percent of registered voters don't just rank for Mr Trump or his Democratic opponents in the three meetings. This includes 6 percent of the electorate currently supporting Mr Biden against Mr Trump, but not Mrs Warren against Mr Trump. There is also 3 percent of the electorate currently ready to support Ms. Warren but not Mr. Biden. And then there are voters who haven't decided in eith er matchup.
In countries that are likely to be narrowly construed, even a modest swing among these voters may allow elections in favor of both parties. In this poll, they exchange the election in favor of Mr. Biden, but leave Mrs. Warren or Mr. Sanders brief.
Mrs. Warren's challenge is not just name recognition. Moreover, she is lower than her rivals against Mr. Trump in a separate vote in Iowa, where she and other candidates have campaigned before the Democratic cause.
same. Warren overtook Mr. Trump by six points in Iowa, the widest gulf among leading Democrats, though she led the Democratic Caucus in our poll. Pete Butigig, not generally known as Mrs. Warren, left Mr. Trump with four points in Iowa, which was the only state in which we included him in the vote against the president. Mr. Biden had one point and Mr. Sanders had three.
An analysis of 205 respondents from the six major bitcoins that support Mr Biden but not Mrs Warren suggests that she may struggle to win many of them.
Of all 26 percent of those voters say they have a favorable opinion of Mrs. Warren, compared with 47 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.
They say by a margin of 74% to 24% that they would prefer a more moderate Democratic candidate over a more liberal one. With almost the same margin, they would prefer a Democrat who promises to find common ground with Republicans over one who promises to fight for a bold progressive agenda.
Voters who support Mr. Biden but not Mrs. Warren, 52 percent agree with the statement that Ms. Warren is too far left to feel comfortable supporting her as president, while 26 percent disagree.
Biden voters, who say Mrs. Warren is too far left, are relatively well educated and disproportionately reside in areas that, four years later, flew from Mitt Romney to Mrs. Clinton. They oppose single-pay health care or free colleges and support Republican tax law for 2017. They are not natural Democratic voters: 41 percent consider themselves conservative; 20 percent say they are Republicans; 33 percent supported Mr Trump or Mr Johnson in 2016.
Dawn Marshall, Tampa-independent, Florida, said that with the exception of Mr Biden, Democrats running for president are too left-wing for her.
"They want to be socialists, and this is not a socialist country," she said. "This is a working country where people go out, make the best hat they can make, find a job. I'm so sick and tired of having to support other people. We cannot be equal. ”
Mrs. Marshall, a telecommunications engineer who is both black and Native American, does not appear to be representative of her demographic group. Still, Biden's non-white supporters are better than Biden's white voters, to say they would elect Mr. Trump over Ms. Warren.
At the same time, 41 percent of voters who support Mr. Biden, but not Ms. Warren, say they agree with the statement that most women running for president are "just not that nice" , perhaps heightening some Democrats' fears that sexism could be a burden on her candidacy.
These Biden supporters are disproportionately male and working class. This group has different conservative views on culture: 55 percent agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities; 79 percent agree that political correctness has gone too far; 54 percent would reduce legal immigration.
Some women also fall into this group. 26-year-old Elisha Savarese works in advocacy for victims in Florida. She voted for Mr Trump and said she would not do it again.
But she will also not vote for Mrs. Warren.
"There's something in it that I just don't like," she said. "I just don't feel she's a real candidate. I find her body language very unwavering. She is very cold. In essence, it is a clone of Hillary Clinton. "
As for female presidential candidates in general, she said, " They are super insensitive. "
The poll shows a natural area of potential growth for Ms. Warren: the 32 percent of Biden voters but non-Warren who disagree that most female presidential candidates are ineligible or that Ms. Warren is too far left.
Those voters like Mr. Biden – he has a 92 percent favorable rating among them, but 52 percent say they don't know enough about Ms. Warren to have an opinion. Mr Sanders h as a broad lead against the president among these voters.
If these sponsors had supported Mrs. Warren in the Times / Siena poll, the results of the poll would have shown her, and Mr. Trump hopeless in the election strongly resemble 2016.
Claire Cain Miller contributed to the reporting.
T he Times / Siena poll of 3 766 registered voters was conducted from October 13 to October 26. For the individual polling of the state is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan with plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battlefield sample has an error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The Times / Siena poll of 1435 registered Iowa voters was conducted from October 25 to October 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
In 2018, the Times / Siena poll had an average error of 2.5 points in 10 polls in these countries over the last three weeks of the campaign. If they were combined as one big poll, as is the case here, the end result would be within 1 point.