- The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has opened a vacancy in the Supreme Court, which President Trump has said he will fill as soon as possible.
- Insider conducted a national survey of 1,017 respondents after Friday’s announcement that Ginsberg had died, asking how Americans preferred to fill her place.
- Numerous respondents – 45% of registered voters – said the president-elect in November should take the seat.
- Another 13% said the seat should not be filled until the election.
- Only 28% of registered voters said Trump should fill the vacancy before the election.
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A new SurveyMonkey Audience poll found that the Supreme Court vacancy caused by the death of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg escalated the rigging of the 2020 election and that most respondents disagreed with President Trump̵
The majority of respondents in the survey said that the seat should be filled only after the election, and the majority said that the seat should be filled by the president elected on November 3rd.
The survey was conducted among 1,017 adults in the United States, of whom 850 said they were registered to vote, and 88% or 881 respondents said they were likely to do so.
Respondents were asked, “When should the United States Senate vote to uphold a new justice before the Supreme Court to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg?” Among registered voters:
- 45% said: “Whoever wins the election should appoint the next judge and the Senate should not vote until the election is decided.”
- 28% said: “As soon as possible, before the 2020 elections.”
- 13% say, “After the 2020 election, but before the next inauguration, whether President Trump wins or loses.”
- 14% said, “I don’t know.”
Between everything respondents, 27% say they should vote for a deputy before the election, 14% say the Trump candidate should get a vote after the election, 42% say the winner of the 2020 election should appoint the next justice, and 17% without knowing.
Unresolved voters are even more uncertain about the best course of action. Among voters who said they were registered to vote and had not yet made a decision between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, or who said they intended to vote for a third country:
- 30% of the unresolved said that the winner in 2020 should appoint justice.
- 32% of the draws said before the election.
- Eleven percent of those undecided said Trump’s electorate should get a vote after the election.
- 27% of the unresolved said they did not know.
The opening significantly increases the stakes in the 2020 elections, but it is unclear how and whether it will affect the state of the race. Could this lead to conservative indeterminate voters who are not interested in Trump rejecting Biden? Or does it strengthen Democrats?
Based on the survey, it appears that the impact on the race will be a significant escalation, with only a fraction of respondents saying they are now less confident in their decision.
After respondents indicated who they intended to support – definitely Trump, probably Trump has not yet decided, probably Biden, definitely Biden, a third party or none of the above – respondents were asked “Does the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg and the vacancy in court affect the way you plan to vote this November?” Among registered voters:
- 47% say it makes them safer.
- 42% say this does not change their intentions.
- 5% say it makes them less secure.
- 6% said they did not know.
The 40 respondents who said they were more uncertain about their current choice were seriously approaching the mistake, although among those respondents, 15 indicated current support for Biden, nine now supported Trump, 11 were unresolved and 5 were third parties.
Based on this study, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that one or another candidate is seriously endangered based on the opening of the seat, but rather that current supporters have seen their preferences increase.
SurveyMonkey Audience surveys from a national sample balanced by age and gender census data. Respondents are encouraged to fill out questionnaires through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, the digital survey tends to distort people with internet access. SurveyMonkey Audience does not attempt to weigh its sample based on race or income. This survey had a total of 1017 respondents, a margin of error plus or minus 3 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.