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Republicans are narrowing the gap in early voting in those states



More than 12 million ballots have been cast in these four countries, which could be crucial in determining the next president.

Applicants’ schedules reflect the focus on these conditions. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were in Florida on Thursday in a campaign for the state’s 29 electoral votes. Trump later had to travel to North Carolina while Vice President Mike Pence was scheduled to stop campaigning in Iowa and Nevada. Biden will appear in Iowa on Friday.

With five days to November 3, here’s a deeper look at who has already voted in these key countries, with data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analysis and other services to Democrats, academics and non-profit organizations.

Trump won Florida by just over one percentage point last cycle.

Over the past week, voters under the age of 30 have slightly increased their share of the early voting electorate in Florida, from 8% to 1

0%. Other age groups have also seen a slight increase, which further reduces the dominance of voters in Florida aged 65 or over, which accounted for 45% of previous voters a week ago but now accounts for only 39%.

Florida’s early voting electorate is a little more diverse than it was four years ago. The share of Hispanic voters in voting before election day has risen from 14% four years ago to 16% now, and the share of black voters has risen slightly from 12% then to 13% now. The vote of white voters is three points lower than in 2016.

Republicans are narrowing the gap in the ballots cast. Democrats are currently leading by four points. It was nine points a week ago. The party’s advantage is not predictable for the outcome – but national opinion polls show that many Republicans also prefer to vote in person on election day rather than earlier.

North Carolina

Trump won the state of Tar Heel by more than three percentage points in 2016.

Young people continue to vote in large numbers in North Carolina. Last week, voters under the age of 30 made up about 11% of early voters, but now that’s just over 12%.

Democrats lost some of their lead in the election. Last week, they had a 12-point advantage over Republicans in the ballots. He is currently at eight points.

In the race, white voters make up the majority of voters already cast in North Carolina, at 72 percent, followed by black voters with the second-largest share of those ballots at 22 percent. This remains almost identical to the racial composition of the early voting electorate four years ago.

Iowa

Iowa remains a competitive battleground this cycle after Trump won the Hawks by more than nine percentage points in 2016. The state also has a key Senate race between incumbent Republican Johnny Ernst and Democrat contender Theresa Greenfield.

Democrats continue to vote before the election with a much higher percentage of Republicans, similar to 2016. With 49 percent of the vote, Democrats have a 17-point lead over Republicans, who are 32 percent. Republicans, however, narrowed that gap slightly four points in the past week.

Finally, the current electorate of Alio before election day is similar to this moment in 2016, with whites making up the overwhelming majority of previous voters at 94%.

Iowa has not seen as much change in the age breakdown as some other states. Voters under the age of 30 make up 10% of all early voters – just three points from that time four years ago. Voters 30-64 have risen five points from 42% of turnout at this time four years ago to 47% now. Voters aged 65 and over make up a smaller proportion than previous voters than at this time four years ago.

Nevada

Four years ago, Nevada had a small defeat for Trump, separating him from Hillary Clinton by about two percentage points.

Nevada’s early voting electorate is younger than last week. Eleven percent of voters so far are under 30; last week it was only 9%. Voters aged 65 or over have gone from 40% of early voters last week to 35% now.

About two-thirds of Nevada’s ballots come from white voters, a small drop of 70 percent four years ago. Spanish voters make up the second-largest share of these ballots by 13%, a slight increase from 2016. Black and Asian voters also saw an increase of one percent in their early voting shares.

Republicans are narrowing the Democratic lead in the election. Democrats led the Republicans by 12 points last week. With more ballots returned in the mail, 42 percent of Democrat ballots are now only seven points higher than 35 percent of Republicans.

CORRECTION: This story was updated to reflect Trump’s 2016 defeat in Nevada.


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