Inside Elections has also revised up its estimates of how many seats Democrats are likely to take in each chamber. The Senate already has a net profit of four to six seats, which puts Democrats well on the road to a majority. They need a net profit of four seats to turn the Senate, or three if they win the White House, as the vice president breaks ties with the Senate.
The most notable of the two Senate rankings changes is in Kansas, which goes from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican. Senator Pat Roberts is retiring, leaving a vacancy in Trump state with nearly 21 points. Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932, so theoretically this should be easy for Republicans.
But GOP spokesman Roger Marshall, whose major victory over Chris Kobach relieved Republicans, did not provide much relief in the final leg of the campaign. Instead, GOP national groups have to spend on his behalf, while Democrat Barbara Bollier, a former Republican, raised nearly $ 13 million in the third quarter. It started in October with about $ 7.6 million compared to Marshall’s $ 1.7 million.
Colorado’s transition from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic is more predictable. GOP Sen. Corey Gardner is running for a second term in a state that Trump lost by five points in 2016 and could lose by an even bigger margin in November. The fight for the Supreme Court’s vacancy only further nationalized the race, reminding voters that despite what Gardner says about his love of the environment and bipartisanship, he is still a Republican senator.
In the House of Representatives, internal elections are now projecting Democrats to take a network of 10 to 20 seats. This is an exceptional position for Democrats, as they defend their historic interim gains for 2018, many of them in areas that Trump had four years ago. But the president is proving to be a barrier for Republicans to vote down, even in the areas he won, while helping Democrats insult red neighborhoods that were not part of the battlefield at the start of the cycle. Republicans will need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority, which seems very, very unlikely.
Suburban seats are moving toward Democrats
In a world where House contests have become even more nationalized, Trump’s unpopularity is bad news for Republicans in Congress – even longtime incumbents in the traditionally red neighborhoods.
Arizona’s 6th district, for example, voted for Trump in 2016, but has one of the highest college levels of all that is still represented by a Republican, according to Inside Elections. That’s one of the reasons he switched from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, although spokesman David Schweikert also didn’t do himself any favors with his ethical concerns. Meanwhile, Biden and Democratic Senate nominee Mark Kelly is likely to give a boost to Democrat Hiral Tipirni, an emergency doctor who has surpassed the five-year-old president.
2nd Arkansas District, represented by GOP Rep. French Hill, and 2nd Missouri County, represented by GOP Rep. Ann Wagner, share a similar dynamic in the suburbs that makes them competitive for Democrats in a way they have not been in the past. The by-elections moved the Hill area from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican and Wagner’s from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Wagner’s defeat would be a loss for Republican women, of whom there are only 13 in the current GOP conference, with two not running for re-election.
Voting in the suburbs of Long Island threatens New York spokesman Lee Zeldin, an ally of Trump who is facing Democrat Nancy Goroff, former chairman of Stony Brook’s chemical department. Since the start of the race, she has relied on a scientist, but the pandemic – and the change in Trump’s scientific direction – have given her another opportunity to say it’s time for Trump and Zeldin to leave. Inside Elections is moving the race from a likely Republican to a lean Republican.
Biden’s strength could also threaten Texas spokesman Chip Roy, a freshman facing former gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis. The race moved from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
The top of the ticket could also improve Democratic odds in the 18th district of Florida, where GOP spokesman Brian Mast is running for a third term. The competition goes from the Solid Republican category to the probable Republican category.
Democrat odds also look better in some suburban neighborhoods they defend, including six that were reversed in 2018. The by-elections displace Democratic Republic of Lucy Macbeth’s rematch against former Republican Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th district from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. Another pickup in 2018, the 3rd district of Kansas, moved from “Probably Democratic” to “Solid Democratic”, dropping from the list of competing seats. Similarly, the 3rd District of Iowa is moving from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic. New Jersey’s third district is shifting from a lean democracy to a likely Democratic, while Texas’ 32nd district is shifting from a likely Democratic to a solid Democratic.
Florida’s 26th district was a bright spot for Republicans this summer. With the strong recruitment of Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Jimenez and Trump doing better with Cuban American voters, they seemed to have a chance to oust Republican Democrat Debbie Mukarsel-Powell. But it’s hard to see how Jimenez is overcoming the national environment in the area that Clinton won and Biden is likely to wear. He moved from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic.
Other places are moving toward Democrats
It is not just in the suburbs that Democrats are expected to do better. A few places that are either very rural or just places where Trump did well in 2016 are also moving toward Democrats.
The 2nd district of Maine, for example, completely dropped out of the list of competing seats, moving from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. Trump wore the country’s sprawling northern quarter comfortably in 2016 – and he could still win it this year, but probably with much less of Biden’s encroachments on white working-class voters. This is a problem for the president, as he relied on an electoral vote here. In addition to making Biden competitive, Democratic MP Jared Golden, who reversed the district in 2018 in the country’s first use of a ranked house voting choice, has a strong profile in the field and a significant financial advantage over his candidate. GOP.
Another area where Trump did well in 2016 – South Carolina’s 1st district – was supposed to be the best takeover opportunity for Republicans after Democrat Joe Cunningham turned the Charleston area in 2018. But the coastal area does not seem as strong for Trump this year, while the Senate race can also boost democracy. He is moving from a lean democratic to a post-democratic.
Republicans hoped to target Pennsylvania Representative Matt Cartwright in District 8, which Trump wore. But Biden’s advantage in the state will not help Republicans remove four Democrat seats, and now it is a solid democratic race.
Democrats are increasingly excited about the takeover of several areas of Trump. Minnesota’s first district, a rural area that Trump wore by a wide margin, was one of three districts that Republicans overturned in 2018, and GOP spokesman Jim Haggedorn barely won the seat, which was then open. But the freshman Republican has faced ethical issues and is struggling to raise money in his rematch against Democrat Dan Fihan. It goes from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
Virginia’s 5th district, where an underfunded Republican defeated the convention’s GA, looks brighter for Democrats with a well-funded candidate who can take advantage of the national environment. He moved from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.
Pennsylvania’s tenth district, where Democrats have long been enthusiastic about their recruitment, state auditor Eugene DePasquale, is moving from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. He is trying to release GOP spokesman Scott Perry, a member of the Freedom House of Parliament. In Illinois, GOP spokesman Rodney Davis appears to be in greater danger in a rematch against Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in District 13, who is moving from Tilt Republican to Toss-up.
At the beginning of the cycle, it would be difficult to imagine that the 11th district of North Carolina could be competitive. But it has become a little less red in the judicial redistribution, and now that Meadows is in the White House, it’s an open space. He is moving from the Solid Republican to the likely Republican.
Places moving towards GOP
Republicans have far fewer opportunities to lift than at the beginning of the cycle. But two Democrat seats are moving in their path. Both are places that Trump won, where he is expected to do it again in 2020, even if he does not meet his performance in 2016.
Minnesota’s Seventh District is the Democratic-occupied seat occupied by Trump with the largest margin in 2016. Representative Colin Peterson, chairman of the Agriculture Committee, is well known in the massive area and is widely considered the last Democrat to hold. the seat. But in the last two cycles, he has faced close competition against an underfunded GP contender, and this time his opponent – former Lieutenant Michel Fishbach’s governor – actually has the money and support of the national party. Internal elections moved the 7th district from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.
Democrats are also on the defensive in New Mexico’s second district, which Xochitl Torres Small turned in 2018 when a seat was opened. She was locked in a rematch against Republican Yvette Herel. The race moves from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.
The 23rd District of Texas is one of four Clinton counties still held by a Republican. Democrats were thought to have a particularly good experience of electing the district this year with GOP spokesman Will Hurd, who is not running for re-election. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who lost just two years ago, had an advantage over Republican Tony Gonzalez, who remained in the run-off. But a promising national environment does not flow to this border district, which covers almost half of the country, as elsewhere. It moves from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic.