The new information from both NASA and the US Government Accountability Unit (GAO) confirms that SpaceX is currently targeting at least a tentative launch of the Crew Dragon with astronauts on board no earlier than November 15 2019
SpaceX is currently in the midst of a complex high-fault anomaly investigation after the flight-proof capsule DM-1 Crew Dragon suffered a catastrophic accident on April 20th. This investigation is not nearly completely closed due to the fact that the interests of NASA and the CCP are equally intertwined. Considering the potential consequences of such a damage that has occurred with astronauts (public or private) on board, NASA is unlikely to accept anything less than analyzes and troubleshooting without stone ruins, including all necessary changes to Crew Dragon's design , no matter
As Chris Gerbhart of NASASpaceflight.com notes, the Crew Dragon-related dates included in the FPIP Integrated Planning Panel (FPIP) document are exclusively tentative. They are only there to serve as substitutes for the long-term planning of the International Space Station, which is now certainly a precarious undertaking. Nevertheless, NASA NET 1
In other words, November 15 is probably a real goal, but it must be treated as absolutely positive, no earlier than the start of the first astronaut-crew mission of the crew of the ISS. Already at the end of March (after successfully completing DM-1 but before the capsule failed), the anonymous sources from the Russian space industry confirmed that NASA's planned DM-2 date is July 25, and also shows that the space agency has already is preparing for delays that can push DM-2 only in November 2019. Yes, I almost concluded the same. It is almost perceptible that it is the same "source" for both articles, because it would make more sense to say "the date of NASA planning is July 25, but there is a good chance that this could sneak up to November"
In particular, an anonymous source from Roscosmos told the Russian TASS exit that "the launch of [DM-2] Crew Dragon is likely to be postponed to November." Given that the delay was being talked, albeit almost officially, and reported for almost a month before The Dragon Capsule C201 crew catastrophically exploded during the test, it did not trust the planned date of the DM- 2 of November 2019 officially released by NASA another three months later.
Crew Dragon Stumbles, But Optimism Remains
As is often said, things go perfectly to the point that they are not. Despite NASA's 2-3-month records and delays in the review, SpaceX's first SpaceX flight craft was performed flawlessly during orbital meetings, docking, departure and re-entry, as NASA and SpaceX officials joked on the Internet for their partial distrust. Long-term review of NASA after the mission has actually ended so much, although there is always room for improvement.
Due to the above-mentioned DM-1 delays (approximately early January to early March), the DM-2 Crew Dragon assembly and integration were delayed in turn to maintain access in case DM-1 has revealed shortcomings or necessary changes. Things were not quite planned, but delayed integration has proven useful, keeping access to most of the critical Dragon 2 subsystems without having to disassemble before applying anomalies. The NASA update of May 2019 shows that the SpaceX DM-2 crew (probably the vehicle previously assigned to the USCV-1 mission) is in the late stages of the installation. Once the anomaly survey is completed and the DM-2 spacecraft is updated with the necessary changes, SpaceX will probably require another ~ 4 months of work to get ready for flight. (NASA)
At the end of May update by CCP manager Katie Ludeders, SpaceX has transferred its crew's crew over one hardware to explain the loss of the DM-1, C201 capsule. The vehicle previously assigned to DM-2 has been redistributed for a critical flight disruption test (IFA) that was previously designed to be used for flight-proven C201. Based on graphs presented during the Lueders presentation, the replacement SpaceX DMX-2 capsule (possibly the previously-assigned Crew-1 capsule) is somewhat like a pattern of retention to allow for modifications that may be necessary after a DM-1 failure.
On a previous update by Lueders in December 2018, SpaceX's original spacecraft DMX-2 (now assigned to IFA) is expected to be fully assembled, sent to Pad 39A and ready for release until June 2019 . -1 delays that the spacecraft may be ready for the interruption test already in July or August, which is associated with data after an anomaly that the IFA was scheduled no earlier than autumn (September 2019)
Given all, the pragmatic analysis suggests that DM-2 crew will most likely not happen earlier than the first quarter of 2020, miracles (and nightmares) are certainly possible. So far, everything that really matters for SpaceX is to complete the C201 failure investigation as quickly and accurately as possible. It is only after the company has publicly announced the results of this investigation that all dates for launching IFA or DM-2 have to be taken with nothing less than a full salt shaker. Prospects and Unique Flashes of SpaceX Launch and Recovery Processes