Tropical Depression 22, which is likely to earn the Beta name by Friday night, is expected to meander in the West Bay by early next week. It is expected to become a hurricane from the National Hurricane Center, it brings a chance of harmful winds, very heavy rainfall and flooding from storms in coastal Texas.
Wilfred developed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and was ready to move west-northwest in the coming days across the open ocean.
Wilfred, Alpha, and the impending formation of the Beta came as a period of intensified hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean refused to retreat, and major Hurricane Teddy headed for Bermuda. Hurricane Paulette fell in Bermuda on Monday as a high-class category. Teddy could eventually escape to Canadian waters or even Downnest Maine.
As the 2020 hurricane season officially uses all the conventional names on the Atlantic hurricane season̵
In 2005, Alpha was formed only on October 22 – putting 2020 per month ahead of even the busiest year.
The storms in 2020 developed at a record pace. And since the typical seasonal peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has just passed, we still have a long way to go – about 10 weeks – before activity finally begins to subside.
Alpha is formed at the last moment, ready to hit Europe
Alpha forms just before the bell, a small cyclone only fifty miles wide that is due to move ashore in Portugal on Friday afternoon. With a combination of tropical and non-tropical characteristics, Alpha was identified as a subtropical storm. On a satellite, it resembles a small tropical system attached to the core of a wider, low-pressure, non-tropical vortex.
Maximum winds at the core of the minimum were about 50 mph, but only near the center of the very small system. The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere has issued an orange warning for gusts of up to 60 miles per hour for the municipalities of Coimbra and Leiria.
Alpha will miss an inch or two of rainfall, but its small size and pace should rule out something worse than isolated flood problems.
The Gulf of Mexico system is likely to become a beta
Tropical Depression 22 formed on Thursday in the western Gulf of Mexico and has winds of 35 miles per hour to start the day on Friday. Tropical depressions are the precursors of tropical storms and mean winds building around a low-pressure organizing zone.
An instrument mounted on a satellite called a scatterometer that emits radiation pulses that output wind speeds based on the behavior of ocean waves below recognizes a low-pressure concentrated area east of Tamiahu, Mexico, or about 250 miles southeast of Brownsville. Texas. The winds were largely between 20 and 30 miles per hour on the western flank of the system, but several gusts of up to 35 miles per hour continued just east of the center.
On satellite imagery, the system showed evidence of very strong, high-pit thunderstorms and some low-countercurrent flow. This means that the air spirals in the developing system.
The National Hurricane Center sent a plane from the Air Force Hurricane Reserve in the storm to investigate, but the plane was struck by lightning, which killed key radar systems. The plane turned safely and was on its way back to Biloxi, Miss., Late in the morning. A second mission was scheduled for Friday night.
Looking ahead, the system is likely to strengthen very slowly as it moves north over the next few days, turning into a severe tropical storm over the weekend and possibly a low-class hurricane through Sunday. It will gradually make a left turn to land, its northern progress will be stopped by a high-pressure force field. Currently, confidence in where the storm will come ashore is low.
As the storm approaches the coast of Texas on Monday, the arrival of cooler and drier air from the north may begin to weaken it.
At the moment, gusts of strong winds near the coast are possible, along with local heavy rainfall and perhaps a certain stormy tide. There is a growing chance that starting Beta may stop, allowing the system to unload large amounts of rainfall. By early next week, the National Weather Service is projecting 5 to 10 inches of rain off the coast of Texas, including Houston, which is particularly vulnerable to flooding.
Uncertainty is higher than average for this system due to weak control currents – similar to the environment Hurricane Sally encountered as it rocked off the coast of Alabama earlier this week.
Hurricane Teddy was a Category 4 hurricane at 130 miles per hour on Friday morning and was just over 900 miles southeast of Bermuda. He was swimming northwest at 12 mph.
Teddy could get very close to Bermuda late Sunday to Monday. It probably won’t be a big hurricane at this time, but it could cause strong winds on the island nation, which is still being cleared by Flight. There are indications that Teddy may try to circumnavigate the island to the east, allowing much of the heavy rainfall and the worst Category 2 winds to circumnavigate east of Bermuda.
Down the road, Teddy will continue to turn north, but will probably make a slight left turn as a system of low pressure from the upper level and immersion in the jet to the west try to capture him.
That could lead to Teddy’s trail to the Canadian Marines or even Downnest Maine in the middle of the week, with meteorologists in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland closely monitoring his progress. Until then, Teddy will become an “extratropical” system, losing its tropical characteristics, but it may still be under the force of the hurricane as its wind field expands.
Teddy marks the second major hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2020.
Tropical storm Wilfred
Disruptions about a third of the road between Africa and the leeward islands were slowly organizing and gaining momentum on Friday. The National Hurricane Center set the Wilfred Tropical Storm system around 11 a.m. Friday, with maximum strong winds of more than 40 miles per hour.
Wilfred will most likely head west and northwest in the coming days before turning north over the open Atlantic, where he is expected to lose strength over colder waters.