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Home https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Business https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ The bear market is already underway, there is a recession, says Crescat Capital

The bear market is already underway, there is a recession, says Crescat Capital



Investors wake up at the geopolitical front as tensions between two major nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, are on the rise.

See below for more details and look for anxiety from South Asia as an excuse. for sale, something that has already been seen in global stocks. Disappointment of earnings and general worries about the US economy also gain some merit for shaky investors on Wednesday

At the last moment, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell returns to Capitol before more data, as big banks are fighting the debate about whether the United States is heading to a recession. James Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JP Morgan, tells his clients on Tuesday that they are preparing for a recession on a case-by-case basis.

Doubts about the United States and the world economy are staining our day by Octavio Tavi Kosta, Crescat Capital's global macro analyst who sees a recession, and thinks investors are blind to the fact that the bear market for stocks has already begun.

"We believe that September 201

8 marks the pinnacle of the US economic cycle. Now we see a typical rally on the bear market, and the next downward leg will probably be as sharp as the first, "said Costa at MarketWatch in an interview. "It's hard to tell exactly when exactly, but my best guess is between now and April."

Costa, who says he cuts down state and global stocks, has shared his "graphics deck" that supports his fears for the US and global economies. Among them, it is the one that shows the biggest drop in consumer expectations compared to the current situation after the 1990's technological failure at the beginning of 2000. He notes that any other such drop over the past 50 years has led to a recession.

Crescat Capital

He also highlights this next, which shows more than a dozen large economies that face negative 30-year yield spreads versus the rate of income funds – a global inversion of the yield curve. This means that short-term bond yields are traded over long-term – a move that reliably predicts past recessions.


Costa says bears markets tend to develop in different ways, with several delays and quite aggressive moves before the markets reassure themselves. He noted that the third largest decline in the history of the VIX or Cboe Volatility

VIX, + 2.18%

indicating that investors are less cowardly, but at the same time, the traditional shelter in times of trouble, gold, moved upward.

Gold and noble metals are an asset that he likes right now, and he also cuts the dollar on the yuan and the Hong Kong contingent, believing that China is probably sitting on the biggest credit bubble in its history.


The last impact of Costa on bulls comes from what he says is an indicator of valuation of shares that completely mislead investors at the moment. This means that the price / profit ratio – a common metric for valuation of a company's share price versus earnings per share. In fact, he says S & P has the second highest p / e ratio on a market peak before the recession lasts until 1871.


Opinion: Why Gold Will not Save Your Portfolio From Inflation Bite The Market

Dow

YMH9, -0.23%

S & P 500

ESH9, -0.22%

and Nasdaq

NQH9, -0.28%

Futures have fallen. Trading was interrupted for several hours on Tuesday due to a technical problem. The variable session on Tuesday saw Dow

DJIA, -0.13%

S & P 500

SPX, -0.08%

and Nasdaq

COMP, -0.07%

registered modest losses.

See the market picture for larger coverage

The dollar

DXY, -0.06%

is flat, and gold

GCJ9, + 0.15%

and crude

CLJ9, + 2.41%

are higher.

Geopolitical tensions have fallen in Europe

SXXP, -0.31%

while stocks in Asia ended mixed with Shanghai Composite

COMP, -0.07%

and Nikkei

NIC, + 0.50%

both higher.

Islamic proponents of Jamie Talabah sing slogans when they celebrate after Pakistan pulls down two Indian airplanes, Lahore, Pakistan February 27, 2019

"If this (the situation) escalates , it will no longer be under my control or in (Prime Minister) Narendra Mody. "- That was the Pakistani president and former cricket star Imran Khan in a TV statement he added. "We invite you for dialogue … a better feeling should prevail."

His comments came after Pakistan said he had dismantled two Indian jets and seized the pilots on Wednesday, a day after the Indian military planes had bombarded what they described as a terrorist camp. on Pakistani soil. The whole mess began after a suicide attack that killed 40 Indian paramilitary officers 40 weeks ago. Some circular videos that are allegedly showing that the Indian pilot is ruined do not help. The trend on Twitter: #saynotowar .

Chart [19599005] Our chart of the day shows the very bad benchmark of Pakistan's KSE 100 on Wednesday. He finished the day with about 2% with investors clearly outlining the situation, while the Indian SSEX closed at a loss of only 0.3%.

Jong Un is in progress as they both shake hands and sit at dinner in Vietnam. Among the highlights were the free world leader who told his colleague that fewer nuclear weapons would help North Korea.

One day of indigestion awaits investors in the company, known before as Tracking Observers. WW International

WTW, + 0.61%

warned about revenue by saying that early membership pressure has not gone so well and its main winter season has started smoothly.

LOW, +0.02%

post sales missed, says it will take a $ 1.6 billion charge. And the stock has fallen. Best Buy

BBY, -0.40%

rises sharply when blowing. The results are also sought by Dean Foods

DF, -1.09%, Campbell Soup

CPB, + 2.01%

and Chesapeake Energy

CHK, -0.38%

. Square

SQ, + 1.06%

Fitbit

FIT, + 0.76%

HP

HPQ, -0.04%

and Box

BOX, + 0.54%

are among the companies reporting after the closure.

Ignoring the veto threat from POTUS, House Democrats (plus 13 Republicans), passed a bill blocking his emergency declaration over a border wall.

The economy

The delay in advanced commodity trade and long-term commodity orders are coming to the forefront, with forthcoming home sales and factory orders also on the fountain.

We'll also receive the second day of the Fed Powell Chairman's Testimony of the Capitol Hill, before the House of Banks, which may be a little hotter than Tuesday.

Read: The current bladder may take 2 paths on this chart – one is more restless than the other

Accidentally read

Former POTUS attorney Michael Cohen is preparing to tell Congress that his former boss lied and lied . See his full testimony here.

"Apocalyptic" flame in West Yorkshire, UK, against the backdrop of the hot winter pace in the country

The mysterious school is "working" on the police, judges after saying that his life is ruined. funds for singer through GoFundMe

"Fortnite" stole our dance moves, say former basketball players You need to know, once in your e-mail, make sure you checked the item You need to know that the e-mailed version will be sent around 7:30 pm Eastern

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