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The changing Democratic electorate can fulfill the role of Iowa in 2020.



In every contested race for Democratic nominations this century, the Iowa rubber winner eventually wins the nomination. This is a measure of how much momentum candidates can gain, especially in this era of comprehensive news coverage, from winning this entry-level competition. Aware of this story, the top contenders in 2020 courted Iowa more aggressively than any other state in the primary calendar, whether measured in time, money or staff.

For this reason, some Democrats look to South Carolina, a heavily African American country, which votes fourth in the main calendar, as a better estimate of how the Iowa vote that will end up in 3 February, or New Hampshire, which follows with the first primary eight days later.

"While I think Iowa is a good place to get your feet wet, New Hampshire is a good place to get your feet wet, South Carolina is a place to dive into the political pool and really start swimming," says Anjuan Seirith a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist not involved in the race. "Ultimately, the state will decide who will be nominated next."

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The predominant role that Iowa and New Hampshire play in the nomination process generates internal party tension from years, because the Democratic electorate in each state remains about 90% white, in a party where up to 40% of major voters in all states may not be white.

But the impact of this racial contrast was dampened in the four contested 2000 party nominations for one big reason: Iowa Cooperative winners all performed well with black voters in subsequent states, especially Al Gore in 2000. ., Barack Obama in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (John Kerry, Iowa winner in 2004, performed well, but not as dominant among African-American voters.)

However, polls this year show to increased advertising opportunity mismatch between mostly the white electorate in Iowa and the more diverse states that follow.

Support among African-Americans

Senna. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts found a significant advantage in almost all state and national polls among white voters with colleges, and in some polls she became involved in very competitive polls and among white voters without college. This pattern of support has pushed her to the fore in some recent Iowa studies. Given the strength of the organization it has set up in the state, some local observers consider it a clear favorite.

"I would say today that it will be really difficult to displace Elizabeth Warren," says Jeff Link, an Iowa Democratic consultant who is not a member of the race. "She didn't have a meteoric rise, she had a slow and steady climb. She has a great organization and they are smart and they do things everywhere."

But Warren saw little support in the polls among black voters, which gave about a quarter of all first-time Democrats voted in 2016, according to a cumulative CNN analysis. It's not a problem for her in Iowa – or New Hampshire – but she's emerging as a critical hurdle in the more diverse states that vote later, starting with Nevada and especially South Carolina. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Butigig, who seems to be positioned alongside Warren to perform well in Iowa, also registered little support with black voters – in the case of Butigig, almost none). Among the highest levels of current Iowa candidates, only former Vice President Joe Biden has shown consistent appeal to African-American voters in polls.

This model increases the opportunity for the Iowa series to choose party winners to end next year. The biggest question that remains in the race in 2020 may actually be whether Biden's disappointing showing in Iowa – and probably New Hampshire – will drive more black voters away in later states, especially in the South Carolina. from him.

"I don't think that will have any bearing on the deciding vote in South Carolina, which is African-American voters," Seawright says. Iowa's ultimate effect on the nomination fight may turn out to be right.

The influence of Iowa and New Hampshire only increased in the 21st century

Historically, the impact of Iowa and New Hampshire on the democratic nomination process can hardly be overstated. Since the modern primary process began in 1972, Democrats have selected only two presidential candidates who did not wear one of the two states: Ed Musky in 1972 and Bill Clinton in 1992. Even the Clinton example comes with an asterisk: Democratic challengers ceded Iowa as candidate for state Sen. Tom Harkin in the same year, and Clinton staged a dramatic revival in New Hampshire, successfully anointing himself as the "kid of the comeback" after recuperating from a scandal to end a second election. another regional favorite, the Senate p. Paul Zongas of Massachusetts.

If anything else, the influence of the two countries seems to have deepened over this century. Not only do they choose the ultimate winner each time, but the candidates who have not made it to one of them are almost completely imprisoned everywhere else.

Democrats had four contested 21st-century nomination duels: in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016. During those four contests, with about 200 general state contests among them, the number of primaries and rubbers won by a candidate who didn't make it the first win in Iowa or New Hampshire is only five. All of those exceptions came in 2004, when John Kerry won both of the first two states and convincingly won the nomination, but lost five races on his way to his rivals Howard Dean, John Edwards and Wesley Clark.

Iowa seems to be overshadowing even New Hampshire in the most recent Democratic contests: When the two states made their choice in 2008 and 2016, the winner in Iowa (Obama and then Hillary Clinton) beat the winner in New Hampshire ( Clinton and then Sanders) both times. And certainly in 2020, any tangible measure of campaign engagement signals that candidates prioritize Iowa over New Hampshire and the other earliest states on the Nevada and South Carolina calendar.

Iowa receives cash and face time

Data collected by CNN political unit from Kantar / CMAG, an ad monitoring company, shows that Iowa receives much more television advertising spend than any other country.

In addition to billionaire investor Tom Steyer, a longtime candidate who has spent huge sums in all four early states, ad buyer candidates are heavily leaning toward Iowa. Biden, for example, has already spent about $ 700,000 in Iowa, compared to about $ 5,000 combined in the other three states. Buttigieg has spent nearly $ 2 million on television in Iowa without spending anything in the other three states.

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Three other candidates almost all of its television spending so far in Iowa: Sanders ($ 1.7 million in Iowa, about $ 1,000 in South Carolina) and Sens. Michael Bennett of Colorado (about $ 1.1 million in Iowa, nothing else) and Kamala Harris from California (nearly $ 600,000 in Iowa, nowhere else). Although Senator Aimee Klobuchar of Minnesota is cast in Iowa as a neighboring Midwest, she may be the biggest exception to this model so far: She spends roughly even sums in Iowa and New Hampshire, nearly $ 500,000 just in case.

Warren has not yet aired television commercials, but Kantar / CMAG data indicates that she has booked more television advertising in Iowa than anywhere else. Warren, however, has also booked commitments plus millions of dollars in the other three states; except Steyer, only Biden – in South Carolina – has made reservations in a future state anywhere near this large.

Campaign visits tell the same story. Campaign tracking, maintained by the Ballotpedia website, shows that by October 1, almost all major Democratic candidates – including Biden, Butigig, Sanders, Harris and Klobuchar – had made about twice as many trips to Iowa as New Hampshire; only Warren maintained a closer balance between them. Harris has virtually moved to Iowa, and Butigig, who starts another bus tour there this weekend after Friday's event, is close behind. Leading candidates also tame the country with campaign campaigns and organizing staff.

"I think there are 650 campaigners in Iowa right now," says Link, a Democratic consultant. "This should be close to the high water sign" in the state's history, he adds.

In New Hampshire, the "slow fall"

Everything is enough to leave New Hampshire feeling more than a little neglected. "It was slowly falling," says Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire and author of Stormy Weather, a story of primary New Hampshire. Scale says New Hampshire receives the least attention from Democratic candidates, likely from a race in 2004, when much of the field also burst into Iowa and largely relinquished the country's primary to the two regionals candidates, Kerry and Dean.

This year it appears that several factors are campaigning to prioritize Iowa over other early states even more than usual.

The first is the size of the field. Democrat voters have already shown a reluctance to focus more than a handful of candidates this year, and campaigns say the narrowing trend will increase significantly as states begin to vote.

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"three tickets outside of Iowa," meaning that only the first three graduates there remain viable in later states. Given the amount of money and media attention candidates can now command, few campaign strategists are sure the rule still applies, but no one wants to be a fourth or fifth place finalist who proves it right. Scale, in a view voiced by many campaign insiders, says candidates seem to have completed the race "it's like a 100-core dash, but there's not enough runway space for everyone." If you lose that first step, you can do it, and Iowa is that first step. "

Another factor that inclines Iowa candidates, especially with respect to New Hampshire, is the belief that it will be very difficult for anyone – even Biden – to displace one of the two Senators from neighboring states, Warren and Sanders. voters in New Hampshire have had the opportunity to choose a New England candidate, such as Tsongas, Kerry or Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, they almost always did. The high cost of competition in New Hampshire – due to the need to buy expensive television in Boston, which reaches the granite state – Adds to the reluctance of most applicants to launch a full-scale effort in New Hampshire For all but Biden, Warren and Sanders, the dominant suggestion may be that the best way to compete in New Hampshire is to take advantage of The Inertia of a Good Show in Iowa.

Inexpensive Cost of Television in Boston Turns to the Third Reason Iowa is emerging as the first among equals. With so many applicants, fundraising candidates have fallen apart to the extent that no one commands a level the financial resources that Obama and Hillary Clinton say in 2008. Compared to the last few competitions, this means that applicants can't afford to cover all early states with resources.

The New Dynamics

But despite all these factors that direct candidates for Iowa, the obvious racial disparity that emerges in the Democratic race raises Iowa's ability to send a false positive election this year, which ultimately ends up the account does not win.

Even Biden's own advisers admit that failing to win Iowa or New Hampshire would endanger his campaign. But whatever happens in Iowa, New Hampshire and even Nevada, the campaign believes that if Biden manages to keep enough support from black voters to win South Carolina, he could restore his viability. The calendar would be helpful at this point, as many states that vote in the next few weeks after South Carolina – starting with the group on Tuesday only Tuesday – have a large population of African-Americans, Spaniards, or both, means it will be harder for Warren or any other contender to win most of those states – from Alabama and Arizona to Florida, Texas and California – while it depends mainly on white voters, especially those with a college degree.
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Seawright, in fact, says it will be "mathematically impossible" for any candidate to run strongly on Super Tuesday without first obtaining, in fact, a seal of approval from South American African-American voters. Biden "can use South Carolina as a place for political rehab and get out," he says. Although it seems less likely now, South Carolina could also serve as a springboard for either of the two African-American candidates in the race – Harris or Senator Corey Booker of New Jersey – if they are first demonstrating power in one of the three voting states before him. Obama follows this pattern to eclipse Clinton in 2008.

Despite his public bravado, Biden's camp does not want to know if it is possible to win the nomination without wearing either of the first two or even of the first three states that they vote before South Carolina. But until one of Biden's rivals shows more attractiveness to African-American voters, it's not unreasonable for his advisers to hope that South Carolina predicts nominations this year – no matter how much time and money the field collects in Iowa. [19659045]
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