For almost four years, Trump’s ratings have been extremely stable, ranging from the 1930s to the 1940s. However, Trump’s denial of the election results and the dismissal of the Capitol did what failed attempts to repeal Obamacare, white violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, impeachment and other scandals failed to do: they once undermined lasting support for new lows.
Trump’s slide means he will leave the Oval Office historically unpopular compared to most of his predecessors. Instead of coming out as a popular figure, Trump will join George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Richard Nixon as presidents who came out with significant majorities disapproving of their work.
Already nearly wiped out by Democratic voters, much of Trump̵
The decline among independents is similar: Less than three in 10 independent voters now approve of Trump – 29%, up from 38% in December.
The POLITICO / Morning Consult poll was conducted from January 8 to 11, when Congress prepared to launch an impeachment procedure against Trump. The poll surveyed 1,996 registered online voters. The margins of error in the sample are plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The same survey, c published results earlier this week, voters showed that they are divided over whether Congress should initiate impeachment proceedings in the last week of Trump’s presidency.
Other polls conducted after last week’s violent uprising in the Capitol also show a downgrade of Trump’s approval rating. IN Quinipiac University survey on Monday, only 33 percent of voters approved of the way Trump handled his job as president, up from 44 percent a month earlier. A PBS NewsHour / Marist College study, conducted the day after the attack on the Capitol, showed that Trump’s rating of approval among all Americans is 38 percent, which is 5 points less than in December.
Of course, national polls underestimated Trump’s performance in the national election, which he lost by 4 percentage points after losing to RealClearPolitics on average by 7 points and the FiveThirtyEight average by 8 points.
But recent polls over the past week show significant declines in support of Trump from previous measurements – with one notable exception: Rasmussen Reports. The Republican automated poll, which typically yields stronger results for Trump, has shown that assessments of the president’s approval are virtually unaffected by last week’s events. (Rasmussen’s Twitter account over the past month shared some of the discredited campaign conspiracies that intensified pro-Trump demonstrations last week, including the one that shamefully quoted Soviet despot Joseph Stalin.)
Trump’s final rating for approval is far from settled, given the congressional sprint to impeach him in the final week of his presidency. But he is ready to step down as one of the most unpopular presidents when he leaves office.
Barack Obama’s approval has risen in the last weeks of his presidency, following Trump’s upset victory in the 2016 election. RealClearPolitics average, Obama’s approval ended at 57 percent, up about 5 points between the election and Trump’s inauguration in January 2017.
Trump is likely to finish closer to Bush’s final ratings: 34 percent in the final Gallup poll – the best historical record for modern approval of the president – and 29 percent in conclusion RealClearPolitics average.
But Bush’s father, George H. W. Bush, the last president ousted by voters after a term, recovered from the election in a way that Trump did not. 1992, according to Gallup, but completed 56 percent in the last survey before Bill Clinton took office.
Clinton and Ronald Reagan finished with 63 percent approval in the Gallup poll. Trump’s presidency ends more like Carter’s: The Georgian’s final rating before giving up Reagan’s Oval Office was 34 percent.
No president has left the office less popular than Nixon, who had 24 percent approval in the final Gallup poll before his resignation in August 1974. But ordinary Republicans had confused Nixon more than Trump. In this latest Gallup poll, 38% of Republicans disapproved of Nixon’s work, compared with 23% who disapproved of Trump in the new POLITICO / Morning Consult poll.
Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company that provides insights into what people think in real time by researching tens of thousands around the world every day..
More details about the survey and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines | Cross tables