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The crisis of the 737 Max could destroy Boeing's plans for 797



The Crisis 737 Max may now delay or even terminate Boeing's plans for a new mid-size aircraft, expected to be called the Boeing 797. Prior to the crisis, the aviation industry expected Boeing to continue with its plans for the aircraft. Now several experts say the odds are about 50-50, at best.

"In January, I gave a presentation where I said it was about a 65% chance," says Richard Abulafia, a space analyst at Teal Group. "It is still in our forecasts, but it has been suspended."

Boeing says he is still working on plans for a potential plane, even in the face of the 737 Max crisis, which began after two crashes. in the last 10 months – Lion Air in October last year and Ethiopian Airlines in March.

Boeing ( BA ) says he is still working on plans for a potential aircraft, even against the backdrop of the crisis of 737 Max.

"Max was our priority, and we prioritize resources and people who focus on Max," said Dennis Müllenburg, CEO of Boeing, at an investor conference hosted by Jefferies last week. "But we have a specialized team that continues to work … the potential environment of the aircraft on the market."

What is a 797?

The 797 will be a jet that can hold about 250 passengers ̵

1; more than a current single-track airplane like the 737 Max, but less than a typical broadband jet like the 787 Dreamliner that can hold up to 335. This would allow airlines to operate long routes where

could be expected to be built of lightweight composite materials to provide very good fuel economy and range. [19659003] "There is undoubtedly a demand for a medium-sized aircraft," says John Grant, senior analyst at OAG. "This is a really sweet spot for many airlines."

But in April 2018, Mullenburg stated that Boeing would weigh plans for a new aircraft "next year", raising expectations that the decision to move forward with the aircraft will be announced by mid-2019. But that was at a time when Boeing was devoting most of its attention to the 737 Max crisis, rather than a new plane.

"Now they will not be able to make a message until 2020 at the earliest," said Grant, "This gives Airbus a huge start."

If Boeing continues with its plans for the new aircraft, it still hopes to raise it by 2025. But Muilenburg said Boeing will first have to decide whether it makes sense to spend $ 15 billion to develop the aircraft.

"We will make sure that the business case makes sense to us and our clients, if it happens, we will continue," he said. "If not, we have other investments we can make."

Airbus Main Launch

As Boeing focuses most of its attention on the 737 Max it gave, Airbus received an unexpected mid-size launch segment announcing that it would continue with its own your entry, A321XLR. This could cause some airlines to commit to the Airbus version of the long-range mid-range aircraft.

"Airbus already has orders for 200 plus for a plane that does not currently exist," Grant said. Because Boeing has not yet announced a decision to build the aircraft, it has no orders.

Asked last month by an analyst how much time United Airlines ( UAL ) can wait before deciding which aircraft to order for that part of the market, CFO Gerald Laderman said, "We have time. But you are right, we would like to see some clarity so that we can make the choice. "

Once the airline makes a choice for a particular type of aircraft, it usually sticks to it. It is much more expensive to have two different types of airplanes in the same class of airplanes, since pilots cannot move freely between airplanes from different manufacturers. Each aircraft requires specialized training. Pilots cannot easily move between different brands of cars or trucks. And having two different aircraft manufacturers also increases the cost of spare parts and maintenance.

So Boeing has to decide on the 797 soon, even when it focuses on trying to fix Max.

"There is certainly some pressure from some customers. It's a big decision," said Kai von Rumor. "But it is better to wait a little longer and do the right thing."

  Boeing Says It May Have To Stop 737 Max Production

Whether Boeing Decides to enter the segment, there can be a big difference for passengers on long-haul flights.

The Airbus A321XLR will be a single-track airplane, and some analysts and passengers suggest that passengers will be dissatisfied with sitting on a 10-hour one-way flight. If Boeing enters the segment, it is expected to make a more comfortable wide-body aircraft that could have wider seats and more space for long-haul flights.

But broadband devices are more expensive to build and operate, which may be another factor that prevents Boeing from exiting the segment. If built, lightweight composite materials are expected to be used to maintain weight and operating costs in accordance with the unidirectional flow. It will simply be more difficult to move a wider plane through the air as effectively as the narrow jet von Rumor has said.

Transfer orders

Boeing's orders have been severely restricted since the start of the 737 Max grounding in March.

On Tuesday, it announced that there were 31 orders for new aircraft in July, most of those for the 787 Dreamliner. It is yet to announce firm orders for the 737 Max from grounding. And since it can't deliver any of the 737 Max reagents it continues to build, deliveries have dropped to 19 from just 39 a year earlier. Deliveries are important to the company because then it receives most of the money from the sale of the aircraft.


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