The Senate will take two votes on Thursday to reopen the federal government and put an end to the longest closure in history. Both voices are expected to fail. Closing will continue.
The experience of the voices on the failed floors has become one of the Senate's senior Mitch McCannel Senate's visits to the Senate over the past few years. They have proven to be a powerful tool to overcome awkward opposition and to navigate a dead end. In the past, the failed Senate bill had signaled poor leadership, but McConnell used them for their tactical advantage in a highly polarized Washington.
McConnell used this gambit before in high-pressure situations. Some Republican lobbyists in the city call it a "show them body" strategy: you can not hold the voices you know to break the deadlock on a given issue.
As Vox reported during the controversial health debate:
Washington observers believe the Senate is preparing to take a failed vote that will lead to a seven-year attempt to cancel and replace Obamacare at a spectacular but final end. 19659006] This is the "show your body" strategy.
"I think the destination is already set. But what is the way? "I told a Republican health lobbyist who asked for anonymity to speak openly. "They must be able to show the body the electorate, say they have tried and failed."
Now it is logical for McConnell to call this play. Four weeks after the closure, Republicans from the Senate do not want to move anything without attaching $ 5 billion to the border wall, and democratic leaders are not advancing in talks with the president. Democrats beat McConnell for not allowing a vote to resume the government. Now they will get one – even if it does not have the desired effect.
The unsuccessful voices are not exactly productive legislation, but they are still useful to the Senate leadership because they give the kind of work done and forced reset after blocking the legislative path. What are the votes the Senate will take?
McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Sumer negotiated the deal this week to vote on two proposals Thursday:
- President Trump's proposal announced on Saturday to finance the government while providing billions of dollars for border security and Temporary Defenses for DACA Recipients
- A temporary bill to finance the government at existing levels – without any immigration conditions – which will resume the government by 8 February. The relevant version of this law has already been adopted by the Democratic House.
Both bills will need 60 votes for advance. But there will probably not be enough Republicans to join the Democrats to issue a clean bill, and there are a few Democrats who want to support Trump's wall.
So, what's the point? Senators will have a public opportunity to release their disappointment by voting for the government's opening – and McConnell will show Democrat and President Trump that none of the two courses have the necessary support in the Senate.
The Politico Playbook explained the purpose of dueling unsuccessful voices like this: "It's releasing a pressure valve from something." This is not really meant to put an end to stopping.
McConnell "showed them a body" before
We saw the same drama twice before, once Obamacare was canceled in 2017, and once during the previous government closure against DACA and the wall last January.
During the first instance, the Obamacare cancellation was in trouble. However, McConnell continues to move to vote, although there is no clear way to get 50 votes (this bill has acted under special rules that require only a large majority) for each plan. He seemed willing to vote, although all that he was going to show was that none of the existing bills for revocation could pass.
The possible vote went almost to a plan, even though McConnell approached the majority of the Senate health bill. For several days, the Senate voted unsuccessfully on a cancellation and replacement plan, a clean revocation bill, and a "skinny" bill to cancel. The latter almost succeeded – McConnell cleverly proved that none of the other accounts had the necessary support, leaving the "skinny" bill the only viable alternative – but John McCain stopped him with his scandalous thumb.
The strategy has led to this spectacular flame on the Senate floor but has also added a note on the finality of the monthly health debate. In the coming months, McConnell and the rest of the Senate have switched to tax reform.
The same story happened a few months later. The Senate Democrats closed the government in January 2018 to try to force Trump to negotiate a lasting fixation of DACA recipients whose legal status is at risk from the administration. The president turned out to be an unreliable negotiator, but the Democrats still wanted a concession to agree to resume the government.
What they eventually got was another moment to show them the body. McConnell has agreed not to raise any concrete immigration bill, but rather to hold an "open and fair" debate on immigration issues, while Democrats have not again shut down the government. Thus, at the beginning of February, four voting immigration accounts were put to the vote.
Once again, the Senate is preparing to take voices in a bigger question
The catches served for McConnell's purposes. The government reopened this January. The president was protected from embarrassing waiting if his own plan failed until a more migratory option had passed. Both sides realized that they did not really have enough support for their positions to do something productive about immigration, so they just went on – while the latest immigration crisis did not lead to another closure that is not yet allowed .
Now we're ready to do the same on Thursday. Senators will be able to vote, but if both payment plans fail as expected, President Trump will be protected from the need to issue a veto to stop the government. In other words, voices will not allow stopping, but they could defuse the tension for a few days and allow Republicans to regroup.
It may sound strange, but these days it is the way the Senate works.