The cost of bitcoins (BTC) for three weeks in the range of $ 30,000 proved to be a decisive test for one of its most famous price models.
As noted by Philip Swift, co-founder of the Decentrader trading package on June 11, Bitcoin poses a major challenge to the stock price forecasting tool.
Is bounce time for BTC a price?
The price of BTC has been moving in a lower corridor between 30,000 and 40,000 dollars since mid-May. This worries traders a day, while vintage bulls call for calm and long-term thinking.
As Cointelegraph reports, the stock-flow model continues to accommodate such behavior, even if its estimates require a BTC / USD value closer to $ 70,000.
Its creator PlanB, however, expressed concern about the future. If the current levels remain for a longer period, its model risks being invalidated for the first time in its history.
Emphasizing the differences in spot prices from the average value of stocks to the flow, Swift explained that such cases have actually happened before. Each time, bitcoin bounced off a price point relative to the stock̵
“The price hasn’t been that far below the S2F line for a long time,” he told Twitter followers.
“The divergence oscillator at the bottom of the chart is highlighted by an orange dotted line and arrows to show comparable historical periods. The price of bitcoin has recovered strongly from such divergence before.”
PlanB looks at moving averages
Previously, PlanB assumed that this year’s bitcoin cycle was more reminiscent of 2013 than 2017, thanks to the reliability of the fall in prices in May.
In 2013 and 2017, we eventually saw a two-step record for all time. The first peak was followed by a significant reduction in value in each case, which then turned to generate mileage to a new peak.
PlanB still believes that $ 100,000 for bitcoin will appear this year, while the stock to the stream requires an average price of $ 100,000 or $ 288,000 between 2024 and 2024.
Related: Bitcoin falls below $ 36,000 as century-old financial model predicts big BTC crash
Earlier this week, he identified two key daily moving averages (DMAs) as a potential starting point for recovery in the coming months.
“If the closing in June will be $ 54K (or higher) and July, August will also be $ 54K (or higher), then 50DMA will bounce back from 200DMA and stay above 200DMA,” he wrote on Twitter.
“So a nice short press and a V-rebound to $ 54K (+ 69%) would lead to a rebound scenario after that.”