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The rates for this weekend are not like the others



If you read this on Sunday, then the trade war between the United States and China simply escalates again. At night, 15% of US tariffs on Chinese goods worth about $ 110 billion began, and Beijing paid off on tariffs on US goods worth about $ 75 billion.

The world has already undergone two rounds of tariff increases in the United States and Chinese repayment. But the rates for this weekend, along with another round that is delayed until December 15, are different from those that came before, according to Aditya Bhave, a global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"For previous tariff rounds, obviously there was an attempt to stay away from consumer goods," Bhav told me. "Now they are running out of consumer goods."

Popular shopping items like laptops, shoes and toys are This could strike consumer confidence at a delicate moment for the US economy when costs offset the softness of the manufacturing sector.

JPMorgan Chase predicts that US tariffs imposed on China already cost the average US household $ 600 a year, Bank and will increase to $ 1

,000 after the September and December tariffs come into force.

The December tranche is particularly risky, Bhave points out, because unlike previous rounds, there are few alternative countries from which US companies can

What it means: Businesses will not be able to protect their customers by switching suppliers. Instead, they will probably have to bear the extra cost.

Beware: These tariffs will also affect China, Bhav argues. "They have a pretty high capacity to tolerate pain, but that doesn't mean they don't hurt," he said. Keep an eye on the manufacturing sector, private investment and consumer confidence – as well as any announcements for new public spending.

Brexit is about to get even softer

UK lawmakers are back from their summer vacation, which means the fight for Brexit is about to become one stage. Watch out for more instability of the pound ahead.

  Brexit is back and investors have to fasten

Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week made a shock he asked the queen to end parliament in about five weeks – the longest suspension of decades – just as the October 31 Brexit deadline expired.

Legislators now have only a few days before the suspension to introduce legislation that would prevent the indiscriminate exit from the European Union without a trade defense deal. They will try to do this this week.

The legal challenge against Johnson's maneuver will also continue forward this week in Scotland.

Meanwhile, Brexit negotiators continue discussions with their European counterparts.

Remember: Riotous Brexit has major risks for the UK economy and its trading partners. Germany, which is on the verge of recession, is closely watching developments.

The US economy gets a third-quarter reality check

Now sending a big week of US economic indicators from CNN colleague Annex Tape in New York:

"Worries about the future of the US economy they emerged in August as the inversion of the Treasury's yield curve triggered a recession warning.

GDP growth in the second quarter was down slightly to 2% from 2.1% last week. And while the US consumer still looks strong against the backdrop of the worsening manufacturing sector, Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest monthly decline since December 2012, thanks to the trade war. [19659002] If consumers reimburse their costs for Washington's trade tactics, the economy may feel severe pain.

Next week's economic data should give us a better idea of ​​where we are in the third quarter. The ISM T production index for August is coming on Tuesday. But the biggest item on the calendar is Friday's job report.

Consensus estimates put non-selective wages at 159,000, slightly below July levels, but still strong. The unemployment rate is projected to be stable at 3.7%. "

Next

Monday: Chinese PMI Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing Index; UK003 returns [19659 Wednesday: US trade balance; Australia's GDP Q2; decision on interest rates in Canada; gains on the American eagle and the weak

Thursday: US ISM Non-industrial Index; CrowulStrike Income;

Friday: August Report on US Jobs


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