A study of the latest statistics and surveys reveals that if we continue on the current trajectory, we will not achieve Biden’s goal.
An additional 1% of adults per week completing their first dose are the lowest since the CDC began tracking these statistics in mid-February.
On May 27 and before, the 7-day moving average for new adults receiving their first shot never fell below 1
The problem is that the increase seems to have been temporary and happened when we are far from Biden’s 70% target.
Simply put, the current weekly vaccination rate will not reach 70% until July 4. Just a month before July 4, the current vaccination rate will put the United States somewhere between 67% and 68% of the adult population with at least one dose by Independence Day.
To reach 70% by July 4, we will need a reversal of the current downward trend. We should be on average about 1.6% of the population receiving their first dose every week from now until July 4th. This is significantly higher than the vaccination rate this week.
Such a swing is not impossible. Having 1.6% who take their first dose a week is actually almost what we had from May 14 to May 27. This is less than an additional 0.1 percentage points more than the population that needs to receive the first dose of the day than the rate that occurred during the week ending with the June 3 report.
The point is that we have not really seen an increase in vaccinations, as they become easily available in April. We have only seen a pause of refusals.
The percentage of people who either received their first dose or would receive it as soon as possible in the Kaiser study from late April to late May barely jumped from 64% to 66%. Recent vaccination campaigns for humans (eg, relaxing masks for the vaccinated) do not appear to have had much effect in the long run. Basically, they had people who would get vaccinated to get them sooner.
To achieve Biden’s 70% target, it is clear that some people will need to be persuaded to receive the vaccine next month. There are 4% (enough to receive only 70% of the US when added to the previously mentioned 66%) who either have an appointment with a vaccine or plan to receive their first dose in the next three months.
The key next month will be for these unvaccinated people to have a sense of urgency to receive their first dose.