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Trump dives into red-state races to reverse impeachment decline



But the offensive is not without its risks: Although all three races are in Trump states, the Democrats have a decent shot at at least two of them. The Republican loss of any election could lead to the ammunition preventing the president from claiming that he is politically weak when he heads for the treacherous 2020 campaign.

“Mississippi, Kentucky, and Louisiana are states in which Republicans can win governor races. These would be big victories for President Trump heading into 2020, but in the unlikely event we lose in all these countries, this would obviously be a worrying sign that the president will have to overcome, "said Henry Barber, a member of Former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barber, the Republican National Committee and nephew.

Behind the scenes, Trump tests aides and allies in the three contests and liaises with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) On the battle for re-election of Bevin. He also regularly speaks with Bevin, a longtime ally and frequent visitor to the White House.

Trump's political operation is mobilizing. The RNC, which works closely with the president's team, is expected to spend millions on exit-voting efforts in the three bitcoins. Chris Carr, political director of the Trump campaign and a native of Louisiana, is increasingly participating in the state's governorship contest.

Still, no one is sure about bets on the president. Republicans face great candidates in every state – and especially in Louisiana, where popular Democratic Gov. John Bell Edwards is seeking re-election. Bevin is one of the least popular governors in the country. And in Mississippi, Republican candidate Tate Reeves, the lieutenant governor of the state, has been criticized for his campaign failure and is recovering from an unexpectedly heavy primary.

Republicans have never won all three states in the same year, despite the conservative inclination of each.

The White House has calculated that Trump is likely to take on the bulk of the blame for the loss, whether he's campaigning or not. So he decided to jump in the head so he could take credit if Republicans won.

Trump is popular in all three states and his team is convinced that he can pull any Republican candidate over the finish line. In Mississippi, the president is so pleased that Democratic candidate, United States Attorney General Jim Hood, has promised Trump to "drain the swamp."

The President is already talking about his role in positive developments. After Edwards failed to hit 50 percent in the primary on October 1st and was forced to drain in November, Trump claimed that the popularity of Democrats in Louisiana was diminished because "I explained what a bad job the governor was doing. "

" The president – and his base – is enjoying his praise during these "winning" storytelling opportunities. Perhaps this helps keep the GOP national energy energized for the holidays, perhaps a prolonged slogan for the impeachment and peak of the Democratic presidential first season, "said Nick Everhart, a Republican strategist who has worked on a number of governor races." Any bite to take credit and feed the base is important for enthusiasm and fundraising over the coming months. "

The coup will also allow the president to do something he likes: Attacks rivals with a crowd of adoring supporters.At a rally in Louisiana earlier this month, he accused Democrats of pursuing "unconstitutional" nonsense impeach. "

'I am inclined to agree that bringing him there is the right posture for them,'" says Scott Jennings, a Kentucky-based Republican strategist who serves as George W. Bush's chief political aide. Keeping up, hiding under the desk – I think that would be a bad sign. "

Republicans have been worried about the race for months, but have grown optimistically in recent weeks. They believe the House-led Democratic impulse boost has given a fresh impetus to conservative voters who dominate every state. The recently completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee in Kentucky, for example, showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. Since April, Democratic Attorney General Andy Bechere has been detained in previous committee findings in the race.

Every Republican candidate benefits from impeachment. Recently, Bevin held a press conference in front of the state Capitol to urge Bescher to say whether he supported impeachment. Louisiana's Republican candidate, businessman Eddie Rispone, cut a video online accusing Edwards of being part of the Democratic Party for witch-hunting. Clinton.

"I think there is some evidence that impeachment has helped to increase Republican intensity. And in low-turnout competitions, which is what we have, it's extremely important, "said Phil Cox, a former executive director of the Republican Governors Association.

Much of the party's focus is on saving Bevin. attended a fundraiser for Bevin in Kentucky in August, the only time this year the president has raised money for a candidate other than him, Pence appeared with Bevin, and Donald Trump Jr. Republican groups are ready to spend more than $ 3 million for tel visual ads in the final weeks of the race, over $ 700,000 more than what the Democrats plan to drop.

Overall efforts to raise Bevin were encouraged by McConnell, a former Bevin rival who is ready for re-election next year. In talks with Trump and RNC President Ronna McDaniel, the Senate GOP leader has been lobbying for resources to focus on the race in Kentucky, and made the case that will draw attention, as it was one of the few choices made this year. hours .

Democrats also invest heavily in the three races. But with the passage of time, Democrats are trying to lower expectations for themselves, while placing a burden on Republicans.

"These are three deep red areas," says Democratic Governors Association spokesman David Turner, "this must be easy for Republicans."


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