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Trump faces historically bad numbers for re-election in 2020



Its net approved rating (approval rating minus disapproval) is consistently negative.

But this figure does not necessarily mean that Trump will be defeated in 2020. As conservative commentators, like Newt Gingrich and Hugh Hewitt have rightly pointed out, President Ronald Reagan has had as low estimates of approval at this point in his presidency before moving to victory in his re-election campaign in 1984. The new studies , that the depth of opposition to Trump is significantly deeper than Reagan's. This suggests that Trump could have a much more difficult job to reverse his reckonings by Reagan or indeed every president in the modern election era. The amazing 56% of the voters said they would definitely vote against Trump in the general election in 2020, compared with 28% who say they will definitely vote for it and 1
4% who think they will vote for it, according to ABC News / Washington Post poll.

Compare this with a study of Garth's February 1983 Reagan analysis (ie exactly at the same time in Reagan's presidency). Only 32 per cent of voters said they would definitely vote against Reagan, 31 per cent said they wanted to vote for someone else, and 26 per cent said they would definitely support Reagan. In other words, with a score of 24 points, more of the public say they definitely vote against Trump in 2020 than those who say they will definitely vote against Reagan in 1984. Interestingly, Reagan and Trump had similar bases. 26% who say they will definitely vote for Reagan are just 2 points below 28% who say they will definitely vote for Trump.

Reagan, however, had the potential of supporters that Trump seems to lack. More than twice, the percentage of voters was at least open to Reagan (31%) than they were open to vote for Trump (14%). (Other 10% say they do not know about Reagan, while only 1% say that for Trump.) Together, those who will definitely vote for Reagan and who will be considering the vote for him are 57%. For Trump, he reaches only 42%.

Indeed, for all the presidents for which this question is asked, Trump apparently has the strongest opposition.

Only 32% of respondents in January 2003 in Ipsos have announced they will definitely vote against George Bush. A majority of 40% said they would definitely vote for it, and 25% said they would vote for Bush. Combined, 65% said they would at least consider Bush's vote.

Obama's highest "strong vote against", which I can find for him in 2011, is 47% in the ABC News / Washington Post poll. Even in their worst poll, 52% said they would either vote for it (27%) or consider voting on it (25%). Again, this Trump number is currently 42%, 10 points lower.

Now, before we embrace too much, I must obviously note that we are almost two years from the 2020 elections. Many things can potentially happen to change these numbers.

But these statistics draw a very grim picture of the president. Anyone who thinks it would be easy for Trump to convince his suspects is wrong.

The ABC News / Washington Post study is only the last, which shows that Trump's opposition is significantly more locked than would only suggest approval ratings.

As I have already noted, a record 47% of Americans are already saying they believe Trump's presidency will fail. That means Americans not only do not approve Trump at the moment but believe they will never change their minds about it. This 47% is higher than any poll taken at any time for each presidency over the past 25 years. This includes the second half of George Bush's second term after Hurricane Katrina, the bad Republican meetings of 2006, and the Iraq war that has turned south into the minds of the Americans.
Earlier a study by college at Marist College found that the same percentage (45%) of Americans believe that Trump is dealing with a poor job (on a scale that goes from excellent to fairly good but fair to bad) as president, as Richard Nixon thought bad work two weeks before resigning.


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