WASHINGTON – As the clock strikes election day, President Donald Trump is spending valuable time this weekend in Nevada, a state he lost in 2016, but that his campaign is considered a critical part of the backup road to re-election as current election chances continue to shrink in the states, which he won for a while in the same year.
Trump was to hold high-dollar fundraising in Las Vegas and rallies in Las Vegas and Renault. Both package plans nod to the campaign’s challenges this cycle: Fundraising comes amid fears of domestic money, while public events are still changing over the weekend due to pandemic challenges that have sparked similar plans to rally this year.
The campaign had to make last-minute changes to the venues originally planned on the hangers at Renault and Las Vegas airports due to state coronavirus restrictions banning the gathering of more than 50 people.
Now Trump will hold the rally, originally planned for Renault, at a smaller airport in Minden and his event in Las Vegas at a nearby manufacturing plant; other events are still expected to exceed state presence limits. The campaign also added a stop Monday in Arizona, where it is hosting a Latinos for Trump roundtable in Phoenix.
The president was expected to raise $ 18 million this weekend between fundraising in DC on Saturday and the event in Las Vegas on Sunday, according to a Republican official.
Trump lost Nevada ‘s six electoral votes to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by just over 2 percentage points, and Democrats won almost every nationwide race during the 2018 midterm elections; A new New York Times / Siena poll gave Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 4-point advantage over Trump in the state, making it one of the country’s closest races.
As Trump faces a headwind in Nevada, his campaign seeks to select all the states he can while tracking Biden in at least six states he won in 2016, according to an average RealClearPolitics survey.
If he loses two or three of these countries without adding others, he will not win the re-election. This makes the campaign look outside the map of 2016 for a victory; Trump officials say they see Nevada, along with Minnesota and New Hampshire, as possible alternative routes.
Campaign advisers say there are some favorable demographics in Nevada that they believe could work in Trump’s favor. The country has a large white working class population, with which Trump has traditionally been well interviewed. His campaign also points to growing support among Hispanic voters, who make up more than a quarter of Nevada’s population.
“The blue wave was huge here during the midterm elections,” said Jeremy Gelman, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nevada at Reno. – Biden is a few points up, but I think Trump’s campaign and maybe Biden’s campaign see the race as a bit of a tightening. “
While Trump’s popularity among rural white voters in Nevada is extremely strong, he is battling suburban voters in Las Vegas, Gelman said. Trump will also have to fight the powerful Culinary Workers’ Union, which is trying to get its members to send their ballots earlier, Gelman said.
Trump’s campaign is fighting in court to block a new state law that will send ballots by mail to all active voters in Nevada amid the coronavirus pandemic. Because Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, the greater the turnout, the more likely Democrats are to win, Gelman said.
“If Democrats turn out to vote, it’s almost impossible for a Republican to win,” he said.
Trump’s campaign has invested heavily in Nevada, spending $ 2.2 million in June and July on advertising there, but stopped spending there in August when the campaign said it was shifting its advertising focus to early voting countries. Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign has moved, spending more than $ 3 million on advertising there since late July.
Trump’s campaign was scheduled to return to Nevada this week, but postponed the start of commercials back to September 15. However, the campaign plans to spend $ 5.6 million on ads in the state from now until election day, while According to Advertising Analytics, Biden plans to spend $ 3 million.
A Republican strategist close to the campaign said he had long since written off Nevada, but believed that restrictions on the state’s coronavirus, which included closing bars and a mandate, could redirect voters to Trump. The Nevada-based economy is also particularly hard hit, with the country’s unemployment rate at 14 percent and the economy remaining one of Trump’s strongest selling points, the strategist said.
“Nevada, I’ve always written it off, I thought it was long gone,” said the strategist. “I think Nevada is a big part, but I don’t have ‘don’t waste my time there’ in the Colorado bucket.”