Welcome to our weekly analysis of the state of the 2020 campaign.
The week in numbers
Joe Biden’s lead in national voting averages, including The Upshot, is shrinking so slightly this week – barely sinking below 10 percentage points but it seems to be stable there.
In a national study published by the New York Times / Sienna College and Quinipiac University, Mr. Biden led President Trump from double digits among the oldest voters, as well as among the youngest, a clear example of how he has confused standard political reckoning.
A Times / Siena poll in Montana, published on Friday, shows that Mr. Trump supports six points lead there, and Sen. Steve Danes, a pro-Trump Republican who seems to be abstaining from his Democratic candidate, Gov. Steve Bullock. Mr. Danes, led by three points in carefully monitored competition, a difference that is within the margin of error in the survey.
Biden’s campaign reported much more money in the bank than Trump’s mid-October campaign: $ 162 million to $ 43.6 million. The difference is between 335 and 223 million dollars, when all party funds are included.
Catch up with me
President Trump did what his advisers wanted to do during Thursday night’s debate, despite a lack of preparatory sessions: He did not interrupt former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and calmed down. But with less than two weeks left in the race and nearly 50 million votes cast in the election, the reset time, which is changing the pace of the race, which hasn’t changed much since March. Most of the conversation on the debate stage was still about the president’s work with the coronavirus, where he proposed a few new ones.
He claimed responsibility for the 220,000 lives lost, dismissing any guilt in one fell swoop. “I take full responsibility, but China has brought it here,” he said. “It’s not my fault.” He said that “2.2 million modeled models are expected to die”, a statement he often repeats, but for which there is no clear support. Mr. Trump’s attempts to paint Mr. Biden both as corrupt and as a Trojan horse on the left failed (“he thinks he’s running against someone else,” Mr. Biden said at one point). And the question of the rule of law that the president wanted to raise has waned in much of the country since the summer of protests.
In line with the 2020 Elections
Towards the end of the race, Mr Trump failed to make the election anything but a referendum for himself: his response to the coronavirus, his tone and his tweets.
What does Trump’s schedule tell us about the state of the race?
This week in North Carolina, Mr. Trump appeared in Gaston County, a reliably Republican county outside of Charlotte that has not attended a general election candidate since President George H. W. Bush stopped there in 1992. In Florida, he visited The Village , the largest pension community in the country, which was formerly part of its main constituency of older voters. Next week in Wisconsin, Mr. Trump will visit Waukesha, a county he won four years ago with the biggest difference in the state.
He works hard to keep what he has His rally schedule shows that his campaign has essentially abandoned the suburbs of some states on the battlefield, where he is bleeding support. “Everything we’ve seen from Trump politically, he’s always coming back to his base,” said Doug Hay, a former communications director at the Republican National Committee.
Trump believes in his own magic The president ignores all Covid-19 guidelines and hosts large gatherings in states where the number of positive cases is growing. This is somewhat a repeat of his strategy for the final game in 2016, when his advisers told him he was unlikely to win, but he held the rally until the end of the race. He has since admitted to pulling himself over the finish line. The difference this time is that there hasn’t been any external event yet – like James B. Comey, the former director of the FBI, announcing new evidence related to the Hillary Clinton email investigation to radically change the race.
His advisers believe that the ground game can still pull them off While Democrats rely more on digital advertising, Trump’s campaign is aggressively knocking on the door. Campaign supporters described the last weeks of the campaign as “white knuckles” and said that if the victory on November 3 took place, it would be due to organizers targeting voters aggressively in the states on the battlefield, most of all Mr. n Trump says on stage.
What early voting tells us (and what it doesn’t)
It is wrong to think of November 3 as election day. Millions of Americans have already voted using methods such as early voting or absentee voting by mail. In fact, amid the continued spread of the coronavirus, most experts believe that this election will be attended by more Americans who vote outside the ballot box than ever before.
This reality has led to several eye-catching totals of early votes in several countries. However, projecting an early vote count on Election Day results has been a trap in the analysis of elections for years. Here are some things we know – and don’t know – based on the number of ballots cast.
Voter enthusiasm There is evidence that this presidential cycle will see increased turnout from four years ago. Several states have already broken voter records, including Georgia and North Carolina. In Texas, the populous Harris County is on track to surpass its full number of votes for 2016 in early voting alone – more than 1.3 million people. This is because increased voter turnout is typical of Mr Trump’s presidential election, from mid-term to down-voting. This speaks to a reality that has been true for Mr. Trump for years – he inspires a fiery passion among his base, but also a significant reaction.
Beware of design Democrats are expected to cast more ballots in the early voting process. However, this does not mean that a democratic victory is guaranteed by Election Day, as both parties expect Mr Trump’s supporters to support the November 3 personal vote. This is for several reasons, including that Democrats tend to live in more urban areas and have longer waiting times. This is also because Mr. Trump and Republicans opposed the postal vote.
The system is delayed The worst fear of election observers was a voting system that could not cope with the influx of activity and would fail. So far, the system has survived. In Georgia, initiatives such as turning a basketball arena into a socially remote polling station have been successful. Election Day will provide the biggest stress test of all, but the preparation sent encouraging signs to officials of electoral integrity.
Biden’s campaign bonus is
Mr. Biden’s campaign has a clear path to victory, turning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. However, the campaign is increasingly hearing calls from Democrats in countries that were once considered long-term, such as Georgia, Texas, Iowa and Ohio.
However, Mr Biden’s campaign has long argued that the race is closer than it appears in the polls, and that it is necessary to conserve resources for the countries that need to win. In recent days, however, some signs point to pressure from Democrats to play late in countries that are considered surplus. In part, they are following the advice of some prominent Democrats and large donor groups, who have argued in Mr Biden’s campaign that a major victory is needed to begin a transformational presidency. Here’s what you need to know about Biden’s campaign strategy in dark red countries.
Don’t expect Biden himself Mr Biden’s campaign sent several surrogates to Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas – including his partner, Senator Kamala Harris of California. The campaign wants these redundant countries to feel engaged and supported. However, the campaign will remember how Clinton’s campaign was ridiculed for taking more care of hard-to-win countries while neglecting major battlefields.
They have the money Mr Biden is collecting enticing sums, entering the final month of the campaign with more than a quarter of a billion dollars in hand. The campaign can afford to continue television commercials in Georgia while installing a blitz in Pennsylvania.
Senate control is in balance States like Georgia, Texas and Iowa may not need Biden to win the White House, but they are crucial to answering whether Democrats can get the Senate back. Mr Biden will be aware of this importance, as much of former President Barack Obama’s agenda throughout his term has been tainted by the Republican Senate, which has fought him at every turn. Senate races in Georgia, Texas and Iowa polled close to statistical links. As Mr Biden maintains his presence in these states, he must also help those Democrats who voted below to cross the line.
What you may have missed
Students can register to vote either on their campuses or in their hometowns, leaving students with a strategic choice: Their votes are more likely to change the position of the battlefield or swing area.
Misinformation is even more prevalent during this election cycle than it was in 2016. Colorado has created a new initiative that will run social media ads and expand the range of digital technologies to help voters identify foreign misinformation. Very few countries follow suit.
Shane Goldmacher, Isabella Grulon Pass and Giovanni Russonello contributed to the report.