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Trump's Campaign to Discredit Vote Votes, Explained



A new Washington Post-ABC News poll contains grim news about President Donald Trump on just about every front. Going into the 2020 campaign, it shows that its approval rating has dropped significantly over the past month, largely because people blame it on the possibility of an economic downturn.

Trump declined in a typical way: by attacking the Post Office in particular, and by the mass media in general. But there are some great problems with his answer.

"The ABC / Washington Post Poll poll was the worst and inaccurate poll of all taken before the 2016 election," Trump tweeted on Tuesday. "When my lawyers protested, they took down 12 points and took it out almost by election day. It was a fake poll of two very bad and dangerous media. Sad! "

In a subsequent tweet tweeted Trump expressed the view that" [o] ne of the largest and most powerful weapon used by the media for fake and corrupt news is false research information they expose, Many of these polls are fixed or work in such a way that a particular candidate looks good or bad. The internal vote looks great, the best so far! "

Trump, of course, has a long history of attacking polls that do not respond well to him. But his specific allegation of the "inaccurate" sociological survey for 2016 is simply false and there is good reason to believe that he is also not telling the truth about his internal research.

More generally, Trump's tweets on Tuesday suggest that instead of trying to genuinely address his political shortcomings, he denies them. If his approval rating is downgraded, it is because the poll was rigged. If more than one poll indicates that a plot is to be played.

The latest post-ABC survey, briefly explained

Post-ABC regularly reviews Trump's approval rating, reaching a record 44% in July. As ABC said at the time, Trump's approval was "[b] backed by a strong economy."

But since then there has been some bad economic news. Trump's trade war with China is damaging not only China but also countries like Germany, which also do a lot of business with China and in turn drag the world economy. US growth has slowed, and the short inverted yield curve has raised (perhaps unfounded) fears that a recession may be around the corner.

The state of the economy is clearly in the minds of Americans: A recent poll after ABC shows that Trump's approval rating dropped back to 38 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. And as the Post writes, the slippage is largely due to declining confidence in Trump's economy management:

A poll after ABC found that Trump's economic approval rating also dropped from 51 percent in early July to 46 percent in the new survey, with 47 percent disapproving. Its relatively positive economic position continues to stifle its reputation amid public criticism on other issues.

In a July poll, the economy was the only issue on which Trump received positive numbers, with more than half of all Americans disapproving of his work on immigration, health care, gun violence, climate change and other issues.

Keeping Trump in trade talks with China is a particularly weak spot, with 35 percent in the new poll approving it and 56 percent disapproving.

Poll after ABC ends a grim voting period for Trump. Last month, for example, a Fox News poll found Trump trying below 40 percent in head-to-head matches with four current front-runners for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. In this case, as in this case, Trump responded by attacking the envoy .

Trump's tweets on Tuesday sought Post-ABC's alleged "inaccurate" vote during the 2016 election, but as is the case with many Trump grips of this kind, his case is overstated.

The 2016 polls that Trump likes to bump into were in fact not as inaccurate as he wants to believe.

Trump wants to believe that the latest values ​​after ABC can be dismissed as his 2016 poll was inaccurate. There is only one problem: he is wrong.

The latest poll following ABC's pre-November 2016 election found that Hillary Clinton had the support of 47 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for Trump. This is not far from the extreme difference of Clinton's victory in the popular vote, which was 48 to 46 percent. In fact, the final clinical point in this latest poll "did not reach statistical significance, given that the 2.5% margin of the sample error poll is related to the support of each candidate," as the publication noted in its registration at the time . And one of the factors working for Trump, which the Post also noted, is that he's making progress in a number of battlefield states.

The post did not respond to a request for comment about Trump's accusation that they manipulated their 2016 polls after Trump's lawyers protested, "but the timeline of their trials indicates that it can be predicted that the lead role of Clinton has expanded since the Access Hollywood tape was released in early October 2016, only to narrow steadily as WikiLeaks waste and FBI Director James Comi's letter to Congress investigating the emails shook her campaign.

It was hard to get over says Trump will lose people's votes as he wins the electoral college, but the fact remains that although the post-ABV polls did not show Trump's support by about 3 percentage points, he tied Clinton's support to a point and correctly predicts the winner in the popular vote The poll that Trump now describes as "inaccurate" certainly left open the possibility that he would eventually prevail.

In short, Trump is trying to rewrite history.

Trump is also probably mistaken in his internal polls

After indigning on Tuesday, Trump countered Post-ABC's allegedly erroneous poll with his own internal poll, which he says "looks great, the best so far!" [19659027] But we learned earlier this summer that the denial of Trump's poll even extends to those conducted by his campaign. In June, Trump's campaign leaked to the media, showing him that he was lagging behind Democratic leader Joe Biden in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump's reaction was to stick his head in the sand.

According to Annie Carney and Maggie Haberman of the New York Times after being informed of the "devastating" urn, Trump told his aides to deny him and instead polls showing that he was doing better. In the days that followed, Trump visited a poll of his favorite pollster, Rasmussen, showing a approval rating of a relatively stable 50 percent.

Rasmussen, however, tilts to the right and, according to CNN, is the least accurate pollster of all who cast general polls for congress during the November snap elections. Since then, Trump has been interviewed by Zogby, a source perhaps even less respected by Rasmussen and one that regularly raises his approval rating by about 10 points. Earlier this week, I spoke in detail about how Trump seems to also resort to simply creating poll points in an attempt to increase his popularity.

Trump's denial of polls may delay his day of reading, but it's coming. So far, the unexpected result of the 2016 election gives Trump a pretext to dismiss any major poll he dislikes, but his rationale for it is beyond control. And the notion that Fox News and its own campaign are manipulating polls to look bad for him is absurd.

Surveying is not an exact science, but it has a predictive value, and yet, in what it might make you believe, it is simply not the case that they are all falsified against Trump. And in the end, with his re-election campaign set to start in earnest, Trump denies them at his own peril.

News is moving fast. To stay up-to-date, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter and read more of Vox's Politics and Policy .


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