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Trump's Economy: Report



In his narrative, everything was put in the tank when he entered the White House and took over from President Barack Obama.

Assessing this argument requires giving Trump's current economy something like a reference card, as well as comparing what it has done. with Obama. Let's start. "When I took over this economy, this economy was about to collapse," he said at Fox News in October. "We were at 1% of GDP, we are now at 4.2%, it was ready to collapse, it was the worst, and if you look at Depression – from the Great Depression – it was the worst recovery in our country's history." [19659005] Trump deflects Obama figures here: Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 201

8 and 2.9% for the year, rising by 4.2% a quarter earlier in 2018. But growth was 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year by Obama in power and 1.6% in the last year of his rule, and not 1% of Trump
"We probably had the biggest first two years of each president in our history in terms of what we have achieved with employment, GDP, with everything," he told Laura Inghraham Fox News in February

Recently, a convention on republican activists, he said that if Hillary Clinton won the presidential election, the stock exchange will decline by 50% and he blows up on his own clock. "Instead of being nearly 50% in the stock market, you would be down 50%," he said. The market has actually grown by about 23% since it became president.

But despite some warning signs like surprisingly few jobs created last month, it is clear that Trump will claim that Obama is doing so wrong, doing it right and turning everything around.

Who gets credit?

The history of the current US economy is actually the economic boom of Obama-Trump, according to Alan Blader, a Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve vice president. He noted that the current economic expansion, 116 months, is among the longest in history (second place after Bill Clinton's 120-month expansion).

Taking into account the different ways economists worry about ending extensions, Blind does not do that. I see that some of them happen in the US, at least not in the next few months.

He does not look for Democrats who suddenly embrace Trump's tax cuts or trade, and does not seek a sudden embrace of the President. Obama's gift of dropping out of unemployment and a rising stock market could continue.

But the current boom needed Obama's extraordinary measures to end the Great Recession and perhaps Trump's efforts to give US companies tax breaks. These two very different ideologies have gathered together to master the country over the past 10 years.

Now, for an overview of some of the economic indicators that Trump can boast and some signs of concern and unfulfilled promises, he will have to answer for:

Working at Trump, Obama

19659002] Trump will have to hope that the record for job creation will continue. He will not be helped by employment reports like the one published on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed that the US economy has added only 20,000 in February, at least since September 2017.

When Obama took office, the US economy was dismissing jobs at a frightening speed of more than 700,000 a month. The cutbacks eventually slowed and the United States added jobs every month from October 2010, the second year of Obama's first term. This began a record-breaking series in March 2018, which continues to this day, even with a surprising fall in February. So the boom has fallen into both presidents. It is difficult to compare the creation of Trump and Obama as Obama came into office when the economy was in a difficult situation and Trump took office when the economy – despite the claim that it was in the abyss – seems to be doing well.

Trump promised to create 25 million jobs in 10 years, and his economy saw about 4.9 million jobs in the first 25 months of his management. This is just a little less than the 5.3 million jobs Obama saw created in the past 25 months when he was in power, and also touched by the rising pace of jobs promised by Trump. Economics is growing, but not Republicans promised sustainable and remarkable economic growth as a result of Trump's economic policies, and in particular as a result of its tax cuts. US Gross Domestic Product – the total value of all US goods and services produced over a year – has grown between 1.6% and 2.9% each year since 2010. The growth of 2.9% in 2018 is very good, the highest since 2015. But this is not a 4% Trump promised as a candidate, or 3.2%, which the White House predicts more with the president's budget proposal for 2020.

Markets Rise

Trump is right that the stock market continues to build value. But it's hard to claim he's on the brink of collapse when he takes over the White House. There have been some ups and downs, but the market has been a remarkable bull for 10 years. In March 2009, three months in the Obama administration, the S & P 500 reached the lowest recession of 676. Today it is just under 2750. The Dow Jones industrial average that Trump uses as its benchmark is similar. It was less than 8,000 when Obama came into office and was more than 25,000 today.

Unemployment is a way down

Unemployment has generally declined since 2009, after Obama came into office. The current rate is incredibly low by 3.8%. This is even better than what economists generally consider "full employment".

But like the rising stock market, this trend began well before Trump's victory in 2016.

Another way to look at employment implies that there is work to be done.

Another way to look at it is to apply the employment rate for the population from the earliest age, from 25 to 54 years old. While this outlook for employment has also shown steady improvements since 2009, it still does not reflect a full return to the previous one – Big Recession. The overall trend of this metric is upwards, just after the end of the Great Recession in June 2009 through most of the Obama administration and all of Trump. American wages grow, but perhaps not enough.

The rise in US wages has increased every year since 2010, but these profits have recently been directed at higher earnings for workers, exacerbating the real income inequality issue in the United States. This means that, after taking into account inflation, that in real dollars the wages of Americans have hardly declined for decades, as Pew noted recently. Economists generally tell you that with low unemployment wages have to increase by more. Trump accuses the Federal Reserve of trying to build up its economy by raising interest rates, but this ignores the fact that the Federal Reserve has kept low levels for so long to help the economy recover from the Great Recession – not because the president Obama
wages in general have increased, federal minimum wages have not risen since the beginning of the Obama administration, almost 10 years ago, and there is no indication that Trump intends to increase it, although Democrats are over are going to replace him. Now at 7.25 dollars an hour, it had to rise to 8.47 dollars immediately to keep up with inflation. Many countries have raised their minimum wages. Parliament's Democrats move to vote to ease the minimum wage to more than 15 dollars an hour by 2024, but this proposal faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

More specifically, for some of the workers, Trump has pledged to help workers in the automotive industry and miners in the Rust Belt, wages have fallen. Lidia DePillis of CNN and Jeremy Murray recently unveiled the closure of a GM plant in Ohio and the inability of some workers to take part in government programs to retrain them for new careers.

As DePillis writes, "Beginning in the early 2000s, Autobahn could be the starting class for the middle class, but these jobs are becoming more and more rare. In the midst of the Lordstown plant in the 1970s GM is one of the largest private sector employers in the United States, with more than 618,000 of these jobs already declining to about 103,000. And the jobs that remain are not just the ones they have ever been. wages for US car workers dropped by 18%, adjusted for inflation 2017, only 8% bribes offer pensions. "
And the share of the US economy dedicated to manufacturing jobs has not grown and is unlikely to happen because the US economy has distanced itself from production, which was the largest part of the economy

Part of Trump's argument in favor of blaming some commercial transactions and processing others is that the US has to do more for export and buy less than other countries. The contraction of the trade deficit – the amount that US imports are larger than exports – is what is behind its trade war with China and its promise to improve the North American Free Trade Agreement. This is what is behind the tariffs it threatens or benefits with more than $ 250 billion in goods from China and other countries.

The jury has not yet been replaced by NAFTA, the agreement between the United States and Mexico and Canada, which it offers; Congress still has to ratify it.

But the US trade deficit continues to grow. In fact, it has raised over $ 100 billion since Trump took office, according to the Census Bureau, which tracks the trade deficit. This is the biggest since 2008, before Obama was president.

Trump has not liquidated the debt; It exploded During the 2016 campaign, Trump promised to remove the federal debt within eight years. With the remaining six years to fulfill his promise, debt is blurring, largely because of the tax cuts he has introduced into the law. The federal budget deficit, the annual shortage between government spending on taxes and spending on services is 77% in the first four months of the fiscal year 2019 compared to the same period last year, according to new data released by the Ministry of Finance. Finance

Taxes are reduced. Expenses are up. As a result, debt is unlikely to be removed. It will be the opposite. If the existing laws remain the same, the Budget Office of Congress plans to make the annual deficit reach more than $ 1 trillion a year from 2022
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