Home https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Business https://server7.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/smyrwpoii/p2/ Two of the largest economies in the world are at risk of recession

Two of the largest economies in the world are at risk of recession



Investors have recently set aside fears of global growth by siding with optimism for a "phase one" US-China trade deal. But muted economic data, expected outside Europe this week, may change mood.

Germany may publish data Thursday, indicating it is in recession. Economists surveyed by Reuters estimate that the world's fourth largest economy contracted 0.1% between July and September – marking two straight fourths of negative growth.

It is possible that Germany – affected by the trade war, as well as the declining global demand for auto – just escaped a bullet. Exports unexpectedly recovered in September, rising 1.5% compared to the previous month. August data were also revised upwards.

"With today's data, the technical recession is not yet a deal," Karsten Brzeski, chief German economist at ING, told clients, noting that Germany could avoid another contraction. a minute. "

Recession or not, the reality is that the economy of Germany, the largest in Europe, seems very weak. A reminder of this could upset investors.

" The fact remains that the German economy is in fact has been stagnant for more than a year, "Brzeski said." This is obviously nothing to be too happy about. "

Not to be missed: The calendar also features Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress for the U.S. economy , which takes place Wednesday and Thursday.

Expect Powell to catch on grill, where the Fed goes after three "insurance" interest reductions, but it's also likely to run into questions about weak manufacturing and business investment data ̵
1; and what tells us about the strength of the world's largest economy.
First: The UK will report GDP data on Monday, with the country's economy contracting for the first time since 2012 in the second quarter as global growth and Brexit concerns emerge – but economists surveyed by Reuters, believe that the country will avoid re cession, achieving 0.4% growth between July and September.

Walmart shines a light on the American consumer

It's no secret that the power of the American consumer has helped to support the American economy. Now, here are two new figures: Walmart ( WMT ) reports profits on Thursday and US retail sales for October reach Friday.

Investors will be looking for Walmart Health Performance Measurements for the retail sector heading into the holiday shopping season, according to my CNN Business colleague Nathaniel Meyersohn. Walmart, the largest retailer in America, is seen as a bell on the consumer economy.

From Nathaniel: "Walmart's shares are trading around its highest period, so the company will have a high bar to hit investors. Wall Street expects Walmart to clear it easily. "

The Scene: Walmart successfully defended its stores against Amazon and squeezed its advantage over middle- and low-income buyers across the country. In recent years, the company has invested heavily in lowering prices, reshaping stores and expanding online pick-up and delivery,

Meanwhile, monthly retail sales are expected to grow 0.2%, compared to a slight decline in September. This will be enough to ward off bear cubs?

, in general, nick "It couldn't have been healthier," writes Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist on Friday.

The current wars are heating up with Disney +

Disney ( DIS ) CEO Bob Iger has a dominant 2019. Get it from my CNN Business colleague Frank Chamber:
  Disney CEO Bob Iger is about to take the biggest risk Career

"Only this year The Disney Film Studio boasted the biggest box office profits in the months since. Its parks and resorts have opened the largest expansion ever with the innovative Star Wars: Galaxy & # 39; s Edge. Oh, and on top of that, he ended up acquiring $ 71 billion for most of 21st Century Fox. "

But it won't mean much if Disney +, the company's upcoming streaming service, isn't a hit. The media industry is booming and Disney, one of the largest media companies on the planet, has to stay ahead of the curve and competition – which now includes Netflix, Apple, Amazon, parent of CNN's AT&T and Comcast.

Disney + launches in the US, Canada and the Netherlands on Tuesday. from $ 6.99 per month and the huge variety of content that will be available.

Friday's Cucinello predicts strong early subscriber growth, in part because Disney can afford discounts and cheap packages.

Read more: Disney CEO Bob Iger is on his way to take the most the great risk of his career

Next

Monday: GDP of the United Kingdom

Tuesday: launches Disney +; German economic sentiment; CBS ( CBS ) Overstock ( OSTBP ) Tyson Foods ( TSN ) 19659032] SmileDirectClub ( SDC ) and Tilray ( TLRY ) ] ) ) Wednesday: Jerome Powell testifies before Congress; US inflation; Canada Goose ( GOOS ) Luckin Coffee ( LK ) Cisco ( CSCO ) Profits
Thursday: Jerome Powell testifies before Congress; Germany GDP; canopy growth ( CGC ) Walmart, Weibo ( WB ) NVIDIA [19599012] NVDA ) profits
Friday: retail sales in the US; J.C. Penney ( JCP ) and JD.com ( JD ) revenue

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