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Updates: Scattered storms focused on the southern half of the area



5:55 p.m. – Storms passing south of the area

Showers and storms coalesced over the southern half of the area during the past hour or so. Storms have been especially feisty in southern Md., Where a severe severe thunderstorm warning is up until 7:00 pm. This is primarily for the risk of isolated damaging winds.

This activity will continue to sink south and east over the next hour. Some moderate rain may remain behind for a while, especially in southern Md. Otherwise, just some light rain or passing showers depending on where you are. Showers will continue to cross the region into the evening before tapering later.

4:05 p.m. ̵
1; Some storms firing up southwest of Washington.

Radar in the immediate Washington area is quiet, but there are some showers and storms in central and west central Virginia tracking northeast. Some of these may affect our western and southwestern areas (around Fauquier and Prince William counties) over the next hour or so and perhaps closer to the immediate metro area after that. At the moment, they are not severe, but may contain briefly heavy rain and gusty winds

Generally, we continue to think storms should mostly stay below what is considered severe (winds of at least 58 mph and / or large hail) should be hit or miss in the region. But an isolated severe storm can not be ruled out early this evening, especially in our far southern areas.

Even our northern suburbs could see a bit of storminess. There is a storm in northern Maryland between Hagerstown and Frederick tracking east.

Original article from early afternoon

Above-80-degree temperatures this afternoon are expected to fuel the atmosphere enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms as a disturbance enters the region into this evening

While we do not envision widespread severe weather , and some storms could be severe or even borderline severe, especially along the southern periphery of the immediate DC region

The main threats would be strong gusts, small hail and brief, torrential downpours. The most likely time will be between 4 and 7 p.m. in our western regions, 5 to 8 p.m. in the immediate area, and 6 to 9 p.m.

Around Beltway:

Around Beltway:

The Storm dashboard

There is significant wind shear (increase in wind speed with altitude) across the Richmond-Petersburg area and south


region, which can help sustain storms and generate strong winds. A bit more heat than forecast could push the immediate Washington area into an unstable enough atmosphere for organized, longer-lived storms

On Sunday, it appeared that the most unstable air mass would reside to our south; but the morning computer model forecasts have changed their tune. The example below, from the high resolution North American Model, suggests some pockets of moderate instability (red regions) will develop across the District late this afternoon.

As the immediate Washington area sits on the northern edge of where severe storms are possible, forecast is difficult. Shown below are simulated radar snapshots in the early evening from two of the high resolution models (high resolution NAM, top, and HRRR, bottom).

We do not expect a solid squall line of showers and thunderstorms will materialize, as the approaching cold front is a slow- does not have a lot of impetus behind it. Rather, there should be a few pockets of storm cells and clusters that could pack some heavy rain and strong winds


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