While the world’s attention is focused on Donald Trump’s attempt to win the re-election of presidential candidate Joe Biden, the battle for the US Senate, which will end on November 3, is just as dramatic.
Even if Biden defeats Trump, he will not be able to pass legislation on key issues such as health care, immigration and climate change unless Democrats simultaneously take over the Senate, where Republicans already have a 47-53 majority.
Democrats could do it. Democratic contenders in two states, Arizona and Colorado, appear to have a good chance of defeating Republican parties, while only one Democrat in Alabama appears particularly vulnerable, according to the latest forecast from Cook’s political report.
The number of additional seats Democrats must win by a majority depends on who wins the White House, as each 50-50 Senate section is violated by the incumbent vice president. If Trump wins re-election, Democrats probably need three states, in addition to Arizona and Colorado, for the majority; if Biden wins, Democrats probably only need two more.
“Probably” because there is enough time for the races not mentioned here to shift and change the calculation.
Where will these places come from? There are currently seven races that are judged to intersect with Senate predictions of Cook’s political report.
Top democratic goals: the throws sevenUPS
Democrats’ main targets are Maine, North Carolina and Iowa.
In all three contests, incumbent Republicans appear to be weighed down by Trump’s unpopularity, while their Democratic opponents can take advantage of high voter turnout among voters who want to see Trump defeated.
Broad demographic trends are also creating problems for Republicans nationwide, with fewer women saying they will support Trump in 2020, suburban voters also abandoning him, according to opinion polls, and support for Trump falling away even among whites without higher education. .
In Maine, longtime Republican President Susan Collins seems to have finally broken up with the electorate, a majority saying they disapprove of Collins’ vote to confirm Brett Cavanaugh, Trump’s second choice to join the Supreme Court.
In North Carolina, incumbent Republican President Tom Tillis defended Trump’s response to the coronavirus crisis, while a majority of voters said they supported the Democratic governor of the state in his clash with Trump over public health rules for the Republican National Household.
While Republican Johnny Ernst seemed hard to defeat at the start of this election cycle, she also seems to be suffering from the defense of Trump’s pandemic policy, and contender Theresa Greenfield has shown unexpected strength.
But as the campaign continues, these and other races still have time to change.
Republicans hope that the political struggle for Supreme Court nominee Amy Connie Barrett will stimulate conservative voters, just as the battle for Cavanaugh in the 2018 by-elections can change the races again.