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UT Southwestern predicts an increase in infections in Dallas County, Taranto, if prevention measures remain the same



Hospitalizations and the number of patients in the intensive care unit are expected to increase over the next two weeks, the UT Southwestern report said.

If current social distancing and prevention measures remain the same, the number of new COVID-19 infections in Dallas and Taranto counties will increase, according to a report by the Southwest Medical Center.

The medical center released a data model as of Sept. 24-25 based on real patient data from Dallas, Taranto, Colin and Denton counties. This shows that cases and hospitalizations are already increasing in Dallas and Taranto counties.

Hospitalizations and the number of patients in the intensive care unit are expected to increase in Dallas and Taranto counties in the next two weeks, the report said.

“To ensure that healthcare capacity remains available, there is a need for continued adherence to policies of physical distancing, camouflage, hand hygiene and crowd management,”

; the report said.

At present, these measures are 63% effective in controlling the spread of the virus.

UT Southwestern also shows what the predicted new infections would be if the measures were 61% effective, 65% effective and 68% effective. The report says there are limitations to accurately determining compliance levels.

How infected is COVID-19 in Dallas-Fort Worth now?

UT Southwestern showed a model with a line showing how infected the virus is in Dallas and Taranto County in the last few weeks.

The value of Rt, which is contagious, has been hovering around 1 in Dallas and Taranto counties since late August, the report said. The COVID-19 epidemic increases or continues if it is above 1. If it is below 1, the epidemic decreases.

The value of Rt has been declining since the state order for a face mask was introduced in July.

Infectiousness depends on how well people wash their hands, social distance, wear masks, restrict travel and clean high-touch surfaces, the report said.

Data for hospitals across North Texas show that hospitalizations have increased by 10% compared to one and two weeks ago, the report said.

Hospitalizations in Taranto and Dallas counties are also expected to increase.

UT Southwestern also showed that the current model predicts very well the last two weeks of hospitalizations in both counties.

Dallas County

Dallas County ranks second for the counties in the state with the most active cases at 5,464, according to the state health department.

The total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Dallas County is expected to increase slightly to 250 to 460 concurrent hospitalized cases by October 9th.

New COVID-19 infections are expected to increase to approximately 520 per day by October 9, the report said.

During the week ending September 19, 12% of COVID-19 tests performed at Dallas County hospitals were positive.

An increasing number of patients with COVID-19 are expected to be in the intensive care unit, UT Southwestern said.

Taranto County

Taranto County ranks eighth in the counties with the most active cases since 1865, according to the state health department.

Hospitalizations in the county have increased since Sept. 21, the model shows.

The total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Taranto County is expected to increase by 250 to 520 concurrent hospitalized cases by October 9th.

New COVID-19 infections are expected to increase to about 800 a day by October 9, the report said.


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