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What a failed deal would mean for oil prices

Iranian soldiers participate in the "National Gulf Day" in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019


The Iranian nuclear deal looks almost dead only a year after President Donald Trump's administration withdrew from him and again imposed sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

As the government of Iran begins to violate the agreed limits on uranium enrichment,

British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said on Monday that the Obama-Obama-era deal signed by the United States, Great Britain, Iran, Russia, China , France and Germany in 201

5, aims to provide Iran with economic relief. in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program – "not yet dead". Other European legislators have fervently highlighted the dangers of killing the deal, while Tehran says he can always reverse his dealings if the EU opposes US sanctions and resume trade with Iran – something that it seems impossible or unwilling to do. observers, the deal has already collapsed. But what will happen if it officially ends and what are the consequences for the world?

The impact of oil prices

The direction of oil prices will depend on what Iran is doing with its nuclear program in the event of an end to the deal and whether Tehran's strategy provokes a military response

"If the deal dies and Iran start enriching the uranium again at 20% and rotate the centrifuges at a higher speed, we will be closer to a military confrontation involving the United States and Iran or potentially Israel and Iran, "Heliama Croft, Global Commodity Strategy Director, RBC Capital Markets , CNBC reported on Thursday. "Indeed, military opposition or even limited military strikes can lead to a temporary rise in prices." But before the 2015 agreement enters into force, the country enriches uranium-fed material needed for a bomb – 20 percent far above the 3.67 percent level needed for an energy program, and approximately three months after reaching 90 percent, Enrichment or Weapons

According to the deal, international inspection agencies have confirmed that Iran has brought enrichment to 3.67%, a level that now says it is a violation of just over 4%.

For the United States, I think everything depends on Trump's internal political considerations and whispers in his ears every night.

Richard Nephew

Program Director at the Center for Global Energy Policy, Colombian University, Former State Department Sanctions Expert

"If the war was to explode, we think the oil price will grow rapidly to around $ 150 million barrels of crude oil per day were produced in the Persian Gulf, according to analysts from London-based Capital Economics in a research note last week, which could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,

However, oil watchers point out that with the American shale boom and lesser Gulf count than in previous years, there may be some stagnation in the international market to reduce "The death of the deal, and Iran continues a staged nuclear restart that still keeps it far from being able to reach a nuclear breakthrough, could end oil prices," Croft said, but with weak demand for demand still high, he "can not p

Most analysts support the Gulf War, but they are unlikely, but they fear that with such a high tension and without a diplomatic channel of communication, a simple calculation can cause serious conflict. 19659002] "For the United States, I think it all depends on Trump's internal political concerns and whispered in his ears every night," said Richard Nepce, a sanction expert and program director at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Hacking National Security Adviser John Bolton "had this advantage for a while," said Nepchev. "Now he looks like the isolationists."

National Security Adviser John Bolton with this notebook while listening to questions from reporters at a White House briefing on January 28, 2019 in Washington. During the briefing, economic sanctions were announced against the Venezuelan state oil company in order to force Venezuelan President Maduro to step down.

Win McNamee | News | Getty Images

With the conduct of its election campaign and the long-standing promise to end the US wars in the Middle East, recent actions such as refuting Iran from the severe guilt of dropping a US drone in June and rejecting a planned vengeance, war. However, he confirmed on Thursday that a US Navy ship destroyed an Iranian unmanned airplane in a "defensive action" in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this day.

Plemen believes that Iran will continue cautiously on the nuclear side and in a way that can not be attributed – where possible – on the regional side. "Some security experts suggest a" surgical strike "of Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States, if anything, not as a total war.

With respect to military capabilities, the United States has a far greater scope than Iran, says Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and resident scientist at the American Entrepreneurship Institute in Washington, DC

"Of course, Iranian motorboats or drones can harass the ships," Rubin said. "But if the Iranians go too far, the US Navy to hit an Iranian little lobe and ports of hundreds of miles away in the Indian Ocean, and the Iranian military will not have effective protection. "

Israel" All the Tools Needed "[19659008] Israel has said it will use all means necessary to prevent the acquisition of a nuclear bomb from Iran, although its internal debates on this issue are extremely complex.Between 2010 and 2012, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is believed to have been behind the murders of four of Iran's best nuclear scientists, and in 2007 has committed airwaves ari against a suspected nuclear facility in Syria. Iran, the big question will be whether the US follows the example and how Iran will respond, which, according to some analysts, would probably be through missile attacks from its Lebanese province, Hezbollah.

Tamas Varga, a business analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, still believes that moving to the war is unlikely, especially as the 2020 elections are approaching.

"With the Presidential Campaign in the United States the last thing Donald Trump needs is a leap in local gasoline prices, "Varga said. "Never say never, but the military conflict is not believable at the moment."

What will the nuclear threat look like?

For now, Iran's nuclear program remains the same as it was after signing the deal: away from that bomb, according to scientists interviewed by CNBC.

"Nuclear risk is minimal," says Varga, noting that Iran's uranium enrichment violation puts it at 4.5%, which still qualifies as low-enriched uranium. "The policy of maximum pressure from the US has a devastating impact on the Iranian economy and the longer it continues, the more Iranian leadership is alienated by the voters."

The nephew, the former State Department negotiator, agrees that the nuclear threat is not yet forthcoming – but warns that there is nothing to guarantee it will remain so.

"Currently, the risks are pretty much in line with JCPOA (the official acronym for the deal with Iran), but with the increase in Iran's uranium stocks, risks will increase," he says. "Internally, politics in Iran is so opposed to negotiations with the United States, while sanctions are in place, it is hard to see anything but a steady deviation from hard-line policies that help absorb some of this anger."

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